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Prediction markets for Datacenter

Space datacenter industry generates $100M+ annual revenue by December 31, 2029

Oct 31, 7:30 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

38.08%chance

3215738

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1276

785

Will at least 1% of datacenter capacity be in space by EOY 2028?

Feb 4, 3:52 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

5.24%chance

318714

OptionVotes

YES

NO

4113

100

Will there be an airstrike on a datacenter before 2035?

Mar 30, 3:43 PMJan 1, 5:00 AM

64.61%chance

727481

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1530

424

SOAI#9: Datacenter NIMBYism takes the US by storm and sways certain midterm/gubernatorial elections in 2026

Oct 9, 11:08 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

54.7%chance

352813

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1099

910

what states will have datacenter bans at the end of 2026?

Apr 10, 10:27 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

81553

OptionProbability

New York

Maine

Vermont

California

Washington

Oregon

Massachusetts

Colorado

Connecticut

Maryland

Illinois

Minnesota

New Jersey

100

29

25

23

19

19

19

19

19

19

19

19

16

Will an AI datacenter in the US be sabotaged before 2029?

Sep 23, 8:41 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

64.44%chance

181169

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1346

743

NVIDIAs datacenter revenue and BigTech AI capex doubles by Q4 2026

May 19, 12:12 PMJan 1, 10:47 AM

27.76%chance

12273

OptionVotes

YES

NO

166

64

Airstrike on a UK datacenter before 2035?

Jul 8, 11:40 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

13.98%chance

5254

OptionVotes

YES

NO

248

40

Which company will operate the largest AI datacenter campus at the end of 2027?

Jul 27, 4:38 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

4100

OptionProbability

xAI

Meta

Anthropic

Other

Microsoft

Amazon

OpenAI

Oracle

20

17

16

13

10

10

9

5

Will "A country of alien idiots in a datacenter: AI..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

Jul 22, 2:58 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

13.33%chance

150

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1050

992

Will any single datacenter campus reach 2 GW of power capacity by the end of 2027

Jul 20, 11:52 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

39.36%chance

445

OptionVotes

YES

NO

102

99

Will any single datacenter PPA ≥1GW be announced by a hyperscaler before 2026-12-31?

May 4, 8:22 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

65.35%chance

11

OptionVotes

NO

YES

101

99

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