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Prediction markets for David AI

Which AI tech companies will be acquired for more than $1B in 2025? 💰

Jan 8, 7:47 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

2744804

OptionProbability

Groq

Stability AI

Mistral AI

ElevenLabs (audio)

Runway AI

Figure AI

Cohere

Grammarly

Perplexity

Devin (Cognition)

Pinecone (database)

Magic (coding)

Midjourney

Nous Research (open source, decentralized AI)

Hugging Face

DataBricks

Suno (music)

Anthropic

xAI

SSI (Ilya Sutskever)

OpenAI

32

32

30

27

26

25

25

25

24

24

24

23

18

16

15

13

11

5

5

5

3

Is the "Promethean virus" in Large Language Models real?

Jun 7, 10:50 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

13.02%chance

7532370

OptionVotes

YES

NO

25533

3383

Will Luigi Magione’s defense claim mental health or substance impairment in court?

Dec 9, 9:07 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

49.08%chance

18928440

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1019

982

Apple announces AI company purchase for over $500m by end of 2025

Jan 3, 3:01 AMJan 1, 1:00 AM

46.03%chance

18227869

OptionVotes

YES

NO

6041

3678

Will any AI model be capable of involuntarily hypnotizing human beings by EoY 2025?

Jun 7, 2:15 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

3.94%chance

6510549

OptionVotes

YES

NO

4937

203

Will any notable scientist or public intellectual posthumously publish as an AI simulacrum before EoY 2027?

Jun 12, 3:00 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

8.29%chance

216832

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3327

301

Will there be a ban on distribution of deepfakes of public persons in the US by the end of 2025?

Jan 26, 4:52 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

38.21%chance

322282

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1054

888

Will multiple credible sources claim GPT-5 is sentient?

May 15, 7:20 AMJan 1, 5:59 AM

11.19%chance

211719

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1987

795

Will research into digital sentience / the fundamental nature of consciousness get $10m+ from EA funders before 2030?

Oct 31, 7:12 PMJan 2, 6:59 AM

67.69%chance

191382

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1299

799

Limits on AI model size by 2026?

Mar 27, 6:24 AMJan 1, 2:29 PM

14.78%chance

18975

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1772

794

David Sacks out as White House AI Czar by EOY?

Jun 5, 7:48 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

53.26%chance

8165

OptionVotes

NO

YES

107

94

Will a new television series produced by David Simon air before the end of 2025?

Mar 3, 3:40 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

29.04%chance

298

OptionVotes

YES

NO

269

110

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