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Prediction markets for David AI

Is the "Promethean virus" in Large Language Models real?

Jun 7, 10:50 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

7.85%chance

8145087

OptionVotes

YES

NO

33264

2509

Will Luigi Magione’s defense claim mental health or substance impairment in court?

Dec 9, 9:07 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

15.31%chance

19736834

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2352

425

Will Anthropic models still be hosted on at least one of AWS, GCP, or Azure at expiry

Feb 28, 12:08 AMAug 31, 10:59 PM

97.94%chance

2915988

OptionVotes

NO

YES

7381

168

Will any notable scientist or public intellectual posthumously publish as an AI simulacrum before EoY 2027?

Jun 12, 3:00 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

7.64%chance

226982

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3477

288

Will Grok make a "really good movie" in 2027?

Oct 10, 2:58 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

9.8%chance

365077

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3049

331

Will multiple credible sources claim GPT-5 is sentient?

May 15, 7:20 AMJan 1, 5:59 AM

11.19%chance

211719

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1987

795

Will research into digital sentience / the fundamental nature of consciousness get $10m+ from EA funders before 2030?

Oct 31, 7:12 PMJan 2, 6:59 AM

68.62%chance

211582

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1331

784

3. China’s AI chip sector make significant strides, planting seeds for eventual decline on Nvidia [See full title!]

Dec 28, 11:24 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

65.32%chance

10603

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1375

730

Will CGP Grey return to Cortex podcast before 2027?

Mar 1, 9:29 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

18%chance

10510

OptionVotes

YES

NO

213

47

Will Pope Leo XIV cite in his text the CAIS Statement on AI Risk before 2028?

May 16, 7:23 PMDec 30, 11:59 PM

12.01%chance

8186

OptionVotes

YES

NO

271

37

Will Anthropic require training-consent for any frontier model by mid-2027?

Jun 21, 9:40 AMJun 30, 11:59 PM

19.57%chance

7177

OptionVotes

YES

NO

102

99

In 2040, will any state of the art AIs do something analogous to sleeping?

Jan 26, 8:54 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

48.81%chance

9163

OptionVotes

NO

YES

210

209

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