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Prediction markets for David AI

Is the "Promethean virus" in Large Language Models real?

Jun 7, 10:50 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

11.08%chance

8138437

OptionVotes

YES

NO

27819

3071

Will everybody get paid by David Budden?

Jan 1, 4:34 AMMar 2, 7:59 AM

34.45%chance

6636451

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1380

725

Will Luigi Magione’s defense claim mental health or substance impairment in court?

Dec 9, 9:07 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

41%chance

19028884

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1200

834

Will any notable scientist or public intellectual posthumously publish as an AI simulacrum before EoY 2027?

Jun 12, 3:00 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

7.64%chance

226982

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3477

288

Will Grok make a "really good movie" in 2027?

Oct 10, 2:58 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

9.51%chance

365026

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3100

326

Will multiple credible sources claim GPT-5 is sentient?

May 15, 7:20 AMJan 1, 5:59 AM

11.19%chance

211719

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1987

795

Will research into digital sentience / the fundamental nature of consciousness get $10m+ from EA funders before 2030?

Oct 31, 7:12 PMJan 2, 6:59 AM

68.62%chance

211582

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1331

784

Will Finland be the happiest country for the 9th year in a row?

Dec 30, 5:12 AMMar 19, 9:59 PM

79.69%chance

191383

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1981

505

Will Eliezer Yudkowsky lose his bet with Unknown?

Aug 2, 2:00 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

86.55%chance

111049

OptionVotes

NO

YES

425

112

3. China’s AI chip sector make significant strides, planting seeds for eventual decline on Nvidia [See full title!]

Dec 28, 11:24 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

63.96%chance

8548

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1334

752

Will Pope Leo XIV cite in his text the CAIS Statement on AI Risk before 2028?

May 16, 7:23 PMDec 30, 11:59 PM

12.09%chance

7185

OptionVotes

YES

NO

270

37

Will Duolingo launch support for learning Farsi in 2026

Jan 8, 11:21 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

15.17%chance

572

OptionVotes

YES

NO

160

86

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