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Prediction markets for David AI

Which AI tech companies will be acquired for more than $1B in 2025? 💰

Jan 8, 7:47 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

38143845

OptionProbability

Hugging Face

DataBricks

ElevenLabs (audio)

Suno (music)

Pinecone (database)

Runway AI

Grammarly

Nous Research (open source, decentralized AI)

Perplexity

Devin (Cognition)

Magic (coding)

Figure AI

Groq

Midjourney

Stability AI

OpenAI

Anthropic

xAI

SSI (Ilya Sutskever)

Cohere

Mistral AI

6

5

5

5

5

5

5

5

4

4

4

4

4

4

4

2

2

2

2

2

1

Apple announces AI company purchase for over $500m by end of 2025

Jan 3, 3:01 AMJan 1, 1:00 AM

5.57%chance

19047971

OptionVotes

YES

NO

18379

774

Is the "Promethean virus" in Large Language Models real?

Jun 7, 10:50 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

16.62%chance

8132937

OptionVotes

YES

NO

22319

3938

Will Luigi Magione’s defense claim mental health or substance impairment in court?

Dec 9, 9:07 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

43.12%chance

18928570

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1149

871

Will any notable scientist or public intellectual posthumously publish as an AI simulacrum before EoY 2027?

Jun 12, 3:00 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

8.29%chance

216832

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3327

301

Will Grok make a "really good movie" in 2027?

Oct 10, 2:58 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

9.74%chance

354986

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3045

328

Will there be a ban on distribution of deepfakes of public persons in the US by the end of 2025?

Jan 26, 4:52 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

15.41%chance

333382

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1983

694

Will multiple credible sources claim GPT-5 is sentient?

May 15, 7:20 AMJan 1, 5:59 AM

11.19%chance

211719

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1987

795

Will the US permit China to buy B200 chips before the end of 2025?

Aug 6, 3:14 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

15.75%chance

51679

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2313

432

Will research into digital sentience / the fundamental nature of consciousness get $10m+ from EA funders before 2030?

Oct 31, 7:12 PMJan 2, 6:59 AM

71.78%chance

201532

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1449

734

David Sacks out as White House AI Czar by EOY?

Jun 5, 7:48 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

42.88%chance

10349

OptionVotes

YES

NO

115

87

Will a new television series produced by David Simon air before the end of 2025?

Mar 3, 3:40 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

29.04%chance

298

OptionVotes

YES

NO

269

110

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