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Prediction markets for David AI

Is the "Promethean virus" in Large Language Models real?

Jun 7, 10:50 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

10%chance

8141187

OptionVotes

YES

NO

29364

2889

Will Luigi Magione’s defense claim mental health or substance impairment in court?

Dec 9, 9:07 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

49%chance

19129348

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1020

980

Will Anthropic models still be hosted on at least one of AWS, GCP, or Azure at expiry

Feb 28, 12:08 AMAug 31, 10:59 PM

97.16%chance

2711352

OptionVotes

NO

YES

6226

197

Will any notable scientist or public intellectual posthumously publish as an AI simulacrum before EoY 2027?

Jun 12, 3:00 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

7.64%chance

226982

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3477

288

Will Grok make a "really good movie" in 2027?

Oct 10, 2:58 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

9.8%chance

365077

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3049

331

Will multiple credible sources claim GPT-5 is sentient?

May 15, 7:20 AMJan 1, 5:59 AM

11.19%chance

211719

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1987

795

Will research into digital sentience / the fundamental nature of consciousness get $10m+ from EA funders before 2030?

Oct 31, 7:12 PMJan 2, 6:59 AM

68.62%chance

211582

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1331

784

3. China’s AI chip sector make significant strides, planting seeds for eventual decline on Nvidia [See full title!]

Dec 28, 11:24 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

63.96%chance

8548

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1334

752

Is Anthropic woke?

Feb 26, 1:34 AMJul 1, 4:59 AM

82.72%chance

8390

OptionVotes

NO

YES

219

46

Will Pope Leo XIV cite in his text the CAIS Statement on AI Risk before 2028?

May 16, 7:23 PMDec 30, 11:59 PM

12.09%chance

7185

OptionVotes

YES

NO

270

37

When will AI write great tailor-made math textbooks? (see description)

Feb 15, 8:51 PMJan 1, 9:59 PM

2166

OptionProbability

2032-2033

>=2036 / never

2030-2031

2034-2035

2028-2029

2026-2027

23

23

19

17

10

8

When will autonomous contract negotiation be viable?

Feb 25, 4:04 AMDec 31, 12:59 PM

230

OptionProbability

>=2033

2027

2028

2029

2030

2031

2032

2026

16

12

12

12

12

12

12

11

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