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Prediction markets for Dawgs

Anthropic deploys ads in Claude web or mobile app by end of 2026

Jan 8, 5:09 AMDec 31, 8:00 PM

2%chance

162150

OptionVotes

YES

NO

700

14

Google deploys ads in Gemini web or mobile app by end of 2026

Jan 8, 5:08 AMDec 31, 8:00 PM

9.64%chance

282136

OptionVotes

YES

NO

306

33

OpenAI deploys ads in ChatGPT web or mobile app by end of 2026

Jan 8, 5:06 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

97.11%chance

151486

OptionVotes

NO

YES

580

17

Any American frontier AI lab (e.g. OpenAI, Anthropic) nationalized by EOY 2027?

Feb 25, 6:05 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

33.65%chance

24867

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1144

979

A Chinese car is one of the top 5 best selling passenger car models in Canada in 2026

Jan 16, 9:52 PMJan 16, 11:59 PM

13.76%chance

19685

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1283

1035

Nobel Prize awarded for Ozempic (or GLP-1 drugs) by 2030?

Jul 17, 12:43 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

42.76%chance

8542

OptionVotes

YES

NO

118

93

Alphabet becomes the most valuable company in the world by end of 2026

Feb 14, 2:52 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

15%chance

17512

OptionVotes

YES

NO

238

42

The United States gains >10,000 square kilometers of territory before Trump leaves office

Jan 13, 12:14 AMJan 20, 11:59 AM

24%chance

14454

OptionVotes

YES

NO

276

122

Will RISK fail to pay an insurance claim before 2028?

May 11, 6:15 PMJan 1, 5:59 AM

29.28%chance

7451

OptionVotes

YES

NO

155

64

Will Microsoft train and release a frontier model in 2026?

Feb 16, 3:39 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

19.93%chance

12299

OptionVotes

YES

NO

200

50

Will Kendrick Lamar have a Billboard number 1 single in 2026?

Jan 5, 4:19 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

18.24%chance

5264

OptionVotes

YES

NO

418

101

Any leading Chinese AI lab (e.g. Deepseek, Moonshot, Zhipu) nationalized by EOY 2027?

Feb 25, 6:08 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

55.2%chance

6134

OptionVotes

NO

YES

111

90

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