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Prediction markets for Dawgs

Anthropic deploys ads in Claude web or mobile app by end of 2026

Jan 8, 5:09 AMDec 31, 8:00 PM

2%chance

162150

OptionVotes

YES

NO

700

14

Google deploys ads in Gemini web or mobile app by end of 2026

Jan 8, 5:08 AMDec 31, 8:00 PM

36%chance

231788

OptionVotes

YES

NO

133

75

OpenAI deploys ads in ChatGPT web or mobile app by end of 2026

Jan 8, 5:06 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

97.78%chance

151401

OptionVotes

NO

YES

664

15

Any American frontier AI lab (e.g. OpenAI, Anthropic) nationalized by EOY 2027?

Feb 25, 6:05 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

40.54%chance

20668

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1251

796

A Chinese car is one of the top 5 best selling passenger car models in Canada in 2026

Jan 16, 9:52 PMJan 16, 11:59 PM

13.98%chance

18665

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1263

1038

Nobel Prize awarded for Ozempic (or GLP-1 drugs) by 2030?

Jul 17, 12:43 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

42.76%chance

8542

OptionVotes

YES

NO

118

93

Will RISK fail to pay an insurance claim before 2028?

May 11, 6:15 PMJan 1, 5:59 AM

29.28%chance

7451

OptionVotes

YES

NO

155

64

Alphabet becomes the most valuable company in the world by end of 2026

Feb 14, 2:52 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

50%chance

13301

OptionVotes

NO

YES

100

100

Will Microsoft train and release a frontier model in 2026?

Feb 16, 3:39 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

51.45%chance

8187

OptionVotes

NO

YES

103

97

Any leading Chinese AI lab (e.g. Deepseek, Moonshot, Zhipu) nationalized by EOY 2027?

Feb 25, 6:08 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

55.2%chance

6134

OptionVotes

NO

YES

111

90

100,000 Indians immigrate to China on K visas before 2030?

Oct 1, 7:29 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

32.93%chance

390

OptionVotes

YES

NO

177

76

Will Kendrick Lamar have a Billboard number 1 single in 2026?

Jan 5, 4:19 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

41.1%chance

477

OptionVotes

YES

NO

231

174

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