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Prediction markets for Day One Fund

Will there be MAJOR, HISTORIC-LEVEL protests against Trump during his second term?

Feb 21, 9:33 PMJan 27, 4:59 AM

67.6%chance

537244

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1445

692

Will GiveWell fund Attractive toxic sugar baits for malaria control by 1st January 2027?

Dec 17, 6:20 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

32.7%chance

266994

OptionVotes

YES

NO

7748

3856

Will projects which recently received grants via FTX Foundation, Inc. (i.e., the non-profit entity associated with the Future Fund) receive a demand to give the money back (e.g., to be distributed among FTX bankruptcy creditors)?

Nov 14, 3:03 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

63.61%chance

745724

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2141

900

What will the valuation of OpenAI at IPO be?

Feb 28, 8:12 AMMar 7, 10:59 PM

113835

Will GiveWell fund Chlorhexidine for umbilical cord care by 1st January 2027?

Dec 18, 12:38 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

24.96%chance

123209

OptionVotes

YES

NO

6132

3376

(Cash prizes if you’re right!) Should I do a cheap outdoor wedding?

Jun 10, 2:03 AMSep 14, 11:59 PM

58%chance

223202

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1175

851

Will King Gizzard and the Lizard Wizard return to Spotify in 2025?

Aug 11, 3:17 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

21.4%chance

101617

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1916

522

Will Breakthrough Listen detect any intelligent extraterrestrial communications by 2026?

Mar 3, 4:31 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

6.93%chance

131329

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1460

902

Do short sleeper genes exist, and do they accelerate repair proccesses?

Aug 10, 5:55 PMDec 18, 2:59 PM

59.88%chance

19407

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1081

928

Will I get my money back from the cruise casino?

Feb 7, 7:54 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

59.72%chance

6380

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1459

987

[Metaculus] Before 2032, will at least $30 billion in new funding be authorized towards US pandemic preparedness?

Oct 12, 10:19 PMJan 2, 5:00 PM

59.57%chance

471

OptionVotes

NO

YES

130

93

When will CZEA acquire a new coworking space?

Aug 26, 12:00 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

219

OptionProbability

By November

By October

By December

In 2025

33

22

22

22

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