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Prediction markets for DB

Is scale unnecessary for intelligence (<10B param human-competitive STEM model before 2027)?

Dec 4, 4:35 AMJan 2, 4:59 AM

17.81%chance

218140

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2148

466

Is scale unnecessary for intelligence (<10B param human-competitive STEM model before 2030)?

Nov 19, 4:05 AMJan 2, 4:59 AM

72.44%chance

262593

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1621

617

By 31 December 2026, will the Congress pass a DBCFT (Destination Based Cash Flow Tax)?

Nov 7, 4:37 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

19.61%chance

71265

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2025

494

Will I create my own manifold with no lag?

Oct 21, 8:30 PMJan 1, 5:59 AM

8.16%chance

191069

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1784

881

When will Anduril Industries IPO?

May 29, 11:56 AMDec 31, 12:55 PM

9847

OptionProbability

Q2 2027

Q3 2027

Q4 2026

Q3 2026

Q1 2027

Q2 2026

Q4 2027

2028 or later

Anduril will not IPO

Q3 2025

Q4 2025

Q1 2026

27

17

14

13

10

4

4

4

4

1

1

1

Will Deutsche Bahn sell its subsidiary DB International Operations in 2026?

Jan 26, 9:14 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

53.44%chance

675

OptionVotes

NO

YES

107

93

Anduril Industries IPO valuation exceeds $50 billion

May 29, 11:14 AMDec 31, 12:13 PM

69.23%chance

350

OptionVotes

NO

YES

150

67

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