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Prediction markets for DB

Is scale unnecessary for intelligence (<10B param human-competitive STEM model before 2027)?

Dec 4, 4:35 AMJan 2, 4:59 AM

14.1%chance

207320

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2468

405

Is scale unnecessary for intelligence (<10B param human-competitive STEM model before 2030)?

Nov 19, 4:05 AMJan 2, 4:59 AM

72.44%chance

262593

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1621

617

By 31 December 2025, will President Trump or President-elect Trump refer to a DBCFT (Destination Based Cash Flow Tax)?

Nov 7, 4:44 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

13.18%chance

71577

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2566

390

By 31 December 2026, will the Congress pass a DBCFT (Destination Based Cash Flow Tax)?

Nov 7, 4:37 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

20.41%chance

61215

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1975

506

Will I create my own manifold with no lag?

Oct 21, 8:30 PMJan 1, 5:59 AM

11.44%chance

17567

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1299

933

When will Anduril Industries IPO?

May 29, 11:56 AMDec 31, 12:55 PM

5436

OptionProbability

Q2 2027

Q4 2026

Q3 2026

Q3 2027

Q1 2027

Anduril will not IPO

Q1 2026

Q2 2026

Q4 2027

2028 or later

Q4 2025

Q3 2025

23

19

15

14

9

4

3

3

3

3

2

1

Anduril Industries IPO valuation exceeds $50 billion

May 29, 11:14 AMDec 31, 12:13 PM

66.22%chance

240

OptionVotes

NO

YES

140

71

Will disinfection byproducts (DBPs) in Cambridge MA water be higher in 2025 than 2023?

Jan 22, 10:41 PMJan 30, 4:59 AM

54.75%chance

15

OptionVotes

NO

YES

75

65

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