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Prediction markets for DB

Is scale unnecessary for intelligence (<10B param human-competitive STEM model before 2027)?

Dec 4, 4:35 AMJan 2, 4:59 AM

20.03%chance

217990

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1998

500

Is scale unnecessary for intelligence (<10B param human-competitive STEM model before 2030)?

Nov 19, 4:05 AMJan 2, 4:59 AM

72.44%chance

262593

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1621

617

By 31 December 2026, will the Congress pass a DBCFT (Destination Based Cash Flow Tax)?

Nov 7, 4:37 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

20.41%chance

61215

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1975

506

When will Anduril Industries IPO?

May 29, 11:56 AMDec 31, 12:55 PM

5573

OptionProbability

Q2 2027

Q4 2026

Q3 2026

Q3 2027

Q1 2027

Anduril will not IPO

Q1 2026

Q2 2026

Q4 2027

2028 or later

Q3 2025

Q4 2025

23

20

15

14

9

4

3

3

3

3

1

1

Will I create my own manifold with no lag?

Oct 21, 8:30 PMJan 1, 5:59 AM

11.44%chance

17567

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1299

933

Will Deutsche Bahn sell its subsidiary DB International Operations in 2026?

Jan 26, 9:14 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

59.02%chance

565

OptionVotes

NO

YES

120

83

Anduril Industries IPO valuation exceeds $50 billion

May 29, 11:14 AMDec 31, 12:13 PM

69.23%chance

350

OptionVotes

NO

YES

150

67

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