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Prediction markets for DB

Is scale unnecessary for intelligence (<10B param human-competitive STEM model before 2027)?

Dec 4, 4:35 AMJan 2, 4:59 AM

9.76%chance

2311205

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3040

329

When will Anduril Industries IPO?

May 29, 11:56 AMDec 31, 12:55 PM

216583

OptionProbability

Q2 2027

Q3 2027

Q4 2027

2028 or later

Q1 2027

Anduril will not IPO

Q4 2026

Q3 2025

Q4 2025

Q1 2026

Q2 2026

Q3 2026

26

22

12

12

11

8

5

1

1

1

1

1

Is scale unnecessary for intelligence (<10B param human-competitive STEM model before 2030)?

Nov 19, 4:05 AMJan 2, 4:59 AM

72.44%chance

262593

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1621

617

By 31 December 2026, will the Congress pass a DBCFT (Destination Based Cash Flow Tax)?

Nov 7, 4:37 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

9.63%chance

102548

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3064

326

Will I create my own manifold with no lag?

Oct 21, 8:30 PMJan 1, 5:59 AM

8.16%chance

191069

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1784

881

Will Deutsche Bahn sell its subsidiary DB International Operations in 2026?

Jan 26, 9:14 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

41.66%chance

7100

OptionVotes

YES

NO

118

85

Anduril Industries IPO valuation exceeds $50 billion

May 29, 11:14 AMDec 31, 12:13 PM

71.91%chance

360

OptionVotes

NO

YES

160

63

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