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OptionProbability
US bombs Iran’s nuclear facility
Iran bomb a gulf country (inclusive of offshore platforms)
UN Security Council proposes a cease-fire resolution
Iran fires missiles that land within 50km of Tel Aviv or Jerusalem
Iranian General killed inside Iran
Donald Trump declares victory
Iranian government official declares victory
China attempts to broker a cease-fire/peace deal
US ally publicy condemns actions of US in regard to conflict
G7 member publicly condemns actions of US in regard to conflict
Trump's June 23 Cease-fire announcement is honored for at least 7 days
Iran imposes a nationwide internet shutdown lasting ≥ 24 hours
War ends in 2025
500+ Iranian civilians killed
US aid to Israel exceeds $17.9 billion for calendar year
Fordow facility successfully bombed
Coverage of ICE protests never recovers following the bombing of Iran's nuclear sites
Israel publicly accused of violating a UN cease-fire resolution by the United Nations or a major international body
Iran is back to negotiations with US about a nuclear deal
Israel confirmed to have deployed troops on Iranian soil
Iran publicly accused of violating a UN cease-fire resolution by the United Nations or a major international body
Natanz Nuclear Facility destroyed
The International Criminal Court opens a formal war-crimes investigation tied to the 2025 Israel-Iran conflict
Israel government dissolves
Iranian national arrested for espionage in USA
Iran launches a cruise missile
At least one UNESCO World Heritage site in Israel or Iran is officially reported damaged by hostilities
Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khamenei replaced for any reason
North Korea provides material support to Iran (weapons, money, etc.)
Iranian government official killed via small arms fire/special operations (not air/drone strike)
A terrorist event planned by Iran in a 3rd country targeting Israelis or Jews is successfully executed (5+ deaths)
Multiple Iranian government members chant "death to [non-NATO country]"
Cease-fire broken by any party, causing conflict to resume
Iranian national arrested for planning/executing terrorism in USA
Cease-fire resolution passed by UN Security Council
A poll indicates US citizen support for involvement of US in conflict is less than 25%
A second cease-fire is announced
Iran seizes a G7-flagged ship in Hormuz
Iran cause a mass casualty event (20+ deaths) by a single missle in Israel
A warship exceeding 1000 tons is sank
USA vetoes a proposed UN cease-fire resolution
Straight of Hormuz is closed for less than 72 hours
Iran officially exits the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty
There is a major Iranian cyberattack against the United States.
Russia delivers S-400 (or better) air defense system to Iran
Major media source (BBC, NYT, Fox, CNN, etc.) refers to American involvement as "Iraq 2.0" or similar
WTI Crude futures reach 90usd/bll (NYME:CL.1)
>=1 USA servicemember killed in connection with this conflict
>=1 USA civilian killed in connection with this conflict
Wikipedia lists Syria as a beligerent for more than 24 hours
USA conducts a second bombing in Iran
A fifth generation fighter jet is destroyed
Hezbollah initiates attacks on Israel (2 or more days of strikes, publicly announced by Hezbollah)
Netanyahu is replaced for any reason (no longer acting prime minister)
Several terrorist attacks on U.S. soil causes casualties ( at least 2 attacks and 1 death)
Turkey invokes NATO Article 4 consultations over the Israel-Iran conflict
Civilian manned aircraft destroyed in Iran, Iraq, Syria, Jordan, or Israel airspace
Iranian government dissolves
Israel uses an EMP or directed energy weapon
Holy sites of Israel are destroyed after the war.
A poll indicates US citizen support for involvement of US in conflict is less than 10%
Tel-aviv stock exchange closes for a full trading day
Iran regime change
War Ends in June
Israel targets Iranian *production* or *export* oriented energy facility (refineries and storage for internal use don’t count)
Iran successfully bomb an Israeli civilian power plant or offshore platform
Russia stations combat jets on Iran soil
UN Security Council passes new Iran arms embargo with no vetoes
Saudi Arabia attacks Iran
Any amount of Israeli Merkava tanks are destroyed
Ayatollah Khamenei dies unnaturally
Iran closes the Strait of Hormuz
Brent crude closes ≥ $130 per barrel before 1 Jan 2026
There is a major foreign or terrorist attack on U.S. soil that kills 100+ people.
Total casualties exceed 10,000
Trump is frustrated that even by bombing another country he still can’t get any woman to find him attractive
War ends in July
Iran tests a nuclear weapon
Transitional Iranian government headed by Reza Pahlavi
State with >250k active military personnel joins war on side of Iran
Qatar attacks Iran
≥ 100 000 people flee Iran into Turkey or Iraq as registered refugees because of the conflict
US invasion (boots on the ground, special forces not included)
Will resolve to the number of days until a ceasefire (max 100). Ceasefire: one airspace is opened (at the very least). Stars June 21 2025
A nuclear weapon is used offensively.
Ayatollah Khamenei Is already dead (June 26)
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0
OptionVotes
YES
NO
13712
9873
OptionProbability
Managed escalation
Deal
Large-scale war
Iran voluntarily gives up nuclear ambitions
Iran gets nuke
67
13
8
8
3
OptionProbability
Government official from Mexico attends the 2025 BRICS Summit
≥ 25 fatalities in Cambodia-Thailand border clashes
DRC & Rwanda sign USA-brokered peace agreement
Xi Jinping remains General Secretary of the Chinese Communist Party
Iran - Israel War ends in 2025 (ceasefire last at least 90 days or peace deal is signed)
Cambodia - Thailand Border Clash ends in ceasefire in 2025
Kim Jong Un remains General Secretary of the Workers' Party of Korea (or equivalent title)
Cambodia - Thailand Border Clash ends in ceasefire before October 1, 2025
Donald Trump remains President of USA
Vladimir Putin remains President of Russia
A cease-fire or peace deal is violated by Israel
≥ 1,500 Palestinians killed near Gaza aid hubs
Russia sells or scraps it's only aircraft carrier; the Admiral Kuznetsov
Thailand's Prime Minister Paetongtarn Shinawatra resigns
North Korea conducts a nuclear weapons test
Autonomous lethal drones (no human on the kill-decision loop) are acknowledged by any state to have been used in combat
China declares an air- or maritime-exclusion zone covering any part of Taiwan’s territorial sea or airspace
A new ceasefire between Israel and Gaza is announced by Donald Trump
Qatar becomes a signatory of the Abraham Accords
Min Aung Hlaing ceases to serve as either (a) Chairman of the State Administration Council or (b) Commander-in-Chief of the Myanmar Armed Forces
A cease-fire or peace deal is violated by Iran
Volodymyr Zelenskyy remains President of Ukraine
A new non-majority Muslim (according to CIA Factbook) state becomes a signatory of the Abraham Accords
Azerbaijan becomes a signatory of the Abraham Accords
Cambodia - Thailand Border Clash ceasefire is broken
Ukraine - Russia War ends with a peace treaty
Japan launches a domestically-built intermediate-range ballistic missile (>3 000 km advertised range) test
Major terrorist attack (50+ killed) occurs in Europe
An armed clash between India and Pakistan results in ≥100 military fatalities in a 7-day period
Sudanese Civil War ends
A 5th-generation fighter jet is confirmed to have been destroyed in air/shot down (not including being damaged from an airfield bombing)
Syria becomes a signatory of the Abraham Accords
A drone attacks a head of state (hits or lands within 30 meters)
A cyber-attack officially attributed to a foreign state actor causes ≥US $1 billion in insured losses to a single country
Turkey invokes NATO Article 4 consultations
A state shoot-down of a spacecraft or satellite in orbit is publicly confirmed
A peace treaty ending the Ethiopia–Tigray conflict is signed and remains unbroken for 90 days
Saudi Arabia becomes a signatory of the Abraham Accords
An armed non-state group captures and holds the capital city of a UN-recognised state for ≥72 hours
At least 5,000 uniformed personnel belonging to a UN-Security-Council-authorized security or peace-keeping mission are physically deployed in Haiti
At least three sovereign states outside NATO, EU, ANZUS, or the Quad sign a formal mutual-defence treaty deposited with the UN Treaty Series
Uniformed armed forces in any G20 member state attempt to seize executive power from the constitutional head of government
Major terrorist attack (50+ killed) occurs in United Kingdom
Russian armed forces intentionally attack uniformed personnel or sovereign assets of any NATO member state, or vice-versa
Iraq becomes a signatory of the Abraham Accords
Palestine is granted full United Nations Membership
Iran and Israel both sign (or publicly accept) a written cease-fire or peace agreement, and no lethal exchange of fire between their regular forces occurs for the following 30 consecutive days
China becomes militarily involved in Cambodia - Thailand Border Clash
A vessel larger than 50,000 deadweight tons is damaged or sunk by a naval mine in the Strait of Hormuz
Any EU member invokes Article 42 (7) of the Treaty on European Union in response to an armed attack
A country announces magnetic-fusion net-positive energy
Azerbaijani troops enter Iran
Armenia undergoes a regime change as the result of a military coup
Benjamin Netanyahu remains Prime Minister of Israel
United Nations Security Council adopts (i.e., passes without veto) a formal resolution that explicitly condemns Israel’s use of lethal force against civilians seeking humanitarian aid in Gaza or demands Israel cease such force
The U.S. suffers ≥50 combat fatalities in a single new overseas operation—defined as a country where no U.S. combat deaths occurred in 2024
Libya becomes a signatory of the Abraham Accords
A head of state from a G20 country is assassinated
The IAEA publicly reports that Iran possesses uranium enriched to ≥90 % U-235
The Government of Denmark publicly acknowledges receipt of a formal written offer from Donald J. Trump or his officially empowered representatives to transfer sovereignty over Greenland to the United States
1+ deaths attributed to a rogue AI
Israel conducts military operation in Cyprus
The Arctic Council is formally suspended or dissolved by unanimous vote
Major terrorist attack (50+ killed) occurs in United States
Any current G-20 member state ceases to be listed as a United Nations Member State
Saudi Arabia signs a written, mutual-defence pact with China or Russia
China invades Taiwan
Major terrorist attack (50+ killed) occurs in Canada
Ukraine becomes a formal NATO member
Major News sources consistently identify a conflict as WWIII
Jordan becomes a signatory of the Abraham Accords
At least one nuclear explosive device is detonated with the intent to harm a state’s armed forces or civilian population
Iran becomes a signatory of the Abraham Accords
Lebanon becomes a signatory of the Abraham Accords
Any United States of America state formally states intent to begin process to secede
160 UN Nations simultaneously officially regonize Palestine's statehood.
Any Canadian territory becomes part of US territory
Two states engage in a nuclear exchange (both attempt to deliver a nuclear device within the borders of the other)
Extraterrestrials making contact with earth is widely acknowledged
United Kingdom formally states intention to begin process to reverse "Brexit"
Alberta begins process of becoming a USA state
Humans will extinct
100
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100
94
87
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8
8
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4
1
OptionProbability
China launches military drills around Taiwan
Warnings from Western intelligence agencies about Chinese invasion preparations
Submarine cables around Taiwan are damaged
China engages in a partial/total naval blockade of Taiwan
Reports about the discovery of a Chinese spy in Taiwan's military
A western think-tank warns about a Chinese naval build-up
Major cyberattack on Taiwanese infrastructure
At least one western country charters a fight to evacuate its citizens from Taiwan
China shoots down a Taiwanese aircraft
At least one western country tells its citizens to leave China
A Chinese entity releases a frontier AI model
Taiwan revokes visa of pro-Beijing influencer
Taiwan shoots down a Chinese aircraft
China issues new warning to its citizens about travelling to the US
China declares a no-fly zone over Taiwan
China switches its industrial overcapacity over to military production
China fires missiles/rockets/artillery/railguns over Taiwan
A military ship sinks in the Pacific in suspicious circumstances (or due to clear evidence of hostile action)
Reports that China is building new concentration camps
A popular Chinese movie is released containing a scene with an amphibious assault
Chinese government tells large numbers of its citizens to return to China
Chinese soldiers are involved in active combat outside of Chinese territory (excluding UN peacekeeping)
A US company has a market cap of at least 5 trillion dollars at any point in the 12-month window
Significant damage to low-earth orbit satellites (compared to per-satellite damage level in 2024) -- including but not limited to hostile action and kessler syndrome
Reports of drone activity over US military bases in the Pacific
Major cyberattack on Japanese infrastructure
A Taiwanese politician dies in suspicious circumstances
Major cyberattack on South Korean infrastructure
Reports about the discovery of a Chinese spy in the US military
Reports about the discovery of a Chinese spy in Japan's military
Reports about the discovery of a Chinese spy in South Korea's military
the US implements tariffs of at least 25% on Taiwanese semiconductors (implemented at any point in the 12-month window)
A US semiconductor facility is damaged in a fire/explosion or act of sabotage
At least three civilian flights to Taiwan are diverted to land in China
Significant constitutional crisis in the US
Nasdaq is at 60% of its previous peak at any time in the 12-month period
Reports about the discovery of a Chinese spy in Australia's military
Reports about the discovery of a Chinese spy in India's military
A civilian ship sinks in the Pacific in suspicious circumstances (or due to clear evidence of hostile action)
The US implements significant travel restrictions on Chinese citizens (compared to 2024)
Reports of a major corruption scandal involving a Taiwanese/US/Japanese/South-Korean semiconductor company
Oil prices are at >=100 dollars a barrel at any time in the 12-month window
Reports that a large scale cyberattack has physically damaged AI chips in the West
Credible reports in Western news media about activity relating to biolabs in North Korea
1 million humanoid robots have been manufactured
50k soldiers from NATO countries are stationed in Ukraine
A popular Western podcaster/youtuber is prevented from leaving a country by China/Russia
the US implements tariffs of at least 50% on most imports from China
A US movie with a budget of at least 30 million dollars is released containing a US vs China war scene
The US bombs Iran
Attack on a US military asset in the Pacific
A Taiwanese semiconductor manufacturing facility is damaged in a fire/explosion or act of sabotage
An apocalypse cult attacks a civilian or military target in Taiwan
A human walks on the Moon
At least three prominent Taiwanese AI researchers disappear
Reports that the US has used a sixth-generation fighter in combat operations
Reports that China has used a sixth-generation fighter in combat operations
The US reduces sanctions on Russia
Ukraine loses the Donbass region in a ceasefire/peace deal with Russia
The US attempts to expand its territory by force
Reports of suspicious electromagnetic phenomena in the upper atmosphere
Elon Musk is pardoned
China arrests / takes hostage at least 100 westerners (non-taiwanese) on spurious grounds
The US attempts to expand its territory by economic coercion
Attempted coup in Taiwan
the US implements tariffs of at least 75% on most imports from China
Donald Trump is replaced as the US's leader
The US withdraws from NATO
Vladimir Putin is replaced as Russia's leader
100k soldiers from NATO countries are stationed in Ukraine
A NATO soldier on active duty is killed by Russia
Russia attacks a NATO member (excluding attacks on submarine cables)
AGI is achieved by a non-Chinese entity
North Korea detonates a nuclear weapon
The US military performs combat operations in Mexico
Xi Jinping is replaced as China's leader
India detonates a nuclear weapon
Russia cedes territory to China
Vladivostok is not under Russia's control
Ukraine signs a deal with the US giving it access to its minerals
Zelensky is replaced as the leader of Ukraine
Reports in western media about a Taiwanese businessperson falling out of the window of a tall building
Taiwanese political leader dies in small plane accident (w/out being attacked by kinetic or other physical weapon)
Chinese soldiers present in Europe in official combat roles (including peacekeeping)
An AI datacenter is hit by a significant EMP blast
China executes at least 5 citizens of western countries
AGI is achieved by a Chinese entity
A major pandemic occurs
Attempted coup in Russia
Attempted coup in the Phillipines
The US military performs combat operations on Palestinian territory
The US detonates a nuclear weapon
The US attacks a NATO member
Tulsi Gabbard is arrested on treason charges
A nuclear weapon is detonated
Attempted coup in China
Japan takes control of the Kuril Islands
Successful revolution in Iran
Russia detonates a nuclear weapon
Elon Musk is arrested on treason charges
Attempted coup in the US
Strong evidence supporting the covid lab-leak theory emerges
China detonates a nuclear weapon
Japan detonates a nuclear weapon
South Korea detonates a nuclear weapon
Australia detonates a nuclear weapon
A room temperature superconductor is discovered
90
84
79
77
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72
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5
OptionVotes
YES
NO
10867
9202
OptionProbability
23rd (Grants the District of Columbia electors in the Electoral College.)
22nd (Limits the number of times a person can be elected president.)
11th (Makes states immune from suits from out-of-state citizens and foreigners not living within the state borders; lays the foundation for state sovereign immunity.)
26th (Prohibits the denial of the right of US citizens 18 years of age or older, to vote on account of age.)
20th (Changes dates on which terms of president and VP, and of members of Congress, begin and end, to January 20 and January 3 respectively. States that if president-elect dies before taking office, VP–elect is to be inaugurated president)
25th (Addresses succession to the presidency and establishes procedures both for filling a vacancy in the office of the vice president and responding to presidential disabilities.)
27th (Delays laws affecting Congressional salary from taking effect until after the next election of representatives.)
5th (Sets out rules for indictment by grand jury and eminent domain, protects the right to due process, and prohibits self-incrimination and double jeopardy.)
6th (Protects the right to a speedy public trial by jury, to notification of criminal accusations, to confront the accuser, to obtain witnesses and to retain counsel.)
12th (Revises presidential election procedures by having the president and vice president elected together as opposed to the vice president being the runner up in the presidential election.)
3rd (Restricts the quartering of soldiers in private homes.)
15th (Prohibits the denial of the right to vote based on race, color or previous condition of servitude.)
24th (Prohibits the revocation of voting rights due to the non-payment of a poll tax or any other tax.)
1st (Protects freedom of religion, freedom of speech, freedom of the press, freedom of assembly and the right to petition the government.)
4th (Prohibits unreasonable searches and seizures and sets out requirements for search warrants based on probable cause.)
7th (Provides for the right to a jury trial in civil lawsuits.)
8th (Prohibits excessive fines and excessive bail, as well as cruel and unusual punishment.)
9th (States that rights not enumerated in the Constitution are retained by the people.)
10th (States that the federal government possesses only those powers delegated, or enumerated, to it through the Constitution, and that all other powers are reserved to the States, or to the people.)
13th (Abolishes slavery and involuntary servitude, except as punishment for a crime.)
17th (Establishes the direct election of United States senators by popular vote.)
21st (Repeals the 18th Amendment and makes it a federal offense to transport or import intoxicating liquors into U.S. states and territories where such is prohibited by law.)
2nd (Protects the right to keep and bear arms.)
14th (Defines citizenship, contains the Privileges or Immunities Clause, the Due Process Clause, and the Equal Protection Clause, and deals with post–Civil War issues.)
16th (Permits Congress to levy an income tax without apportioning it among the various states or basing it on the United States Census.)
19th (Prohibits the denial of the right to vote based on sex.)
26
21
19
19
18
18
18
17
17
17
15
13
12
6
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
3
2
1
1
OptionProbability
Luigi Mangione makes or releases statement to the public
Government seeks the death penalty
A public figure calls for the death penalty
Pro-Mangione fan club assembles outside courthouse or at trial
Defense formally alleges evidence tampering or planting of evidence
Defense files motion to suppress evidence
Gag order imposed on case participants
Any arrests where criminal/suspect references Mangione or the case
Nancy Grace call for Mangione’s conviction
Prosecution seeks additional charges other than those in the orginal indictment
Mangione's legal team files for dismissal of charges with prejudice
Prosecution alleges additional victims or attempted crimes
Defense claims insufficient evidence for probable cause
Prosecution seeks to introduce evidence of prior bad acts
Defense claims violation of Miranda rights
Competency evaluation is sought by the defense
Expert witnesses publicly dispute evidence validity
Suspect makes a confession there is made public in court documents
We learn that, at some point in time, Mangione received inpatient psych treatment
Defense requests change in venue
Mangione assaulted while in custody
Court grants competency evaluation
Anyone else charged in connection with Brian Thompson’s murder
Any member of Congress expresses specific support for Luigi Mangione (e.g. calling him a hero, saying he should not be convicted, etc)
Mangione reported to be in a new relationship
Defense granted a change in venue outside of Manhattan
Mangione attempts suicide
Prosecution offers plea deal that becomes public
Case does not go to trial as a result of a plea
Bail hearing results in release with monitoring
Mangione is found incompetent to stand trial at some point
100
100
97
79
78
53
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50
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45
31
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31
27
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22
20
20
20
18
14
11
OptionProbability
End exclusive dealing contracts
Prohibit Google defaults on Google products
Implement a choice screen
Set up a technical oversight committee
Mandate Google to delete data
Force Google to share data with rivals
Separate Chrome and Search into different companies
Separate Android and Search into different companies
86
77
76
50
48
45
36
19
OptionProbability
Trump will make and sign a deal with at least one country
Trump will back down against China.
Trump will make with intent to sign a deal with China
Trump will make with intent to sign a deal with Canada
Trump will make with intent to sign a deal with Mexico
Trump will make with intent to sign a deal with the EU
Trump will unpause "reciprocal tariffs" after 90 days.
100
70
50
50
50
46
0
OptionProbability
Ukraine
Russia
No deal
59
23
18
OptionProbability
The deal is actually signed (still resolves YES even if modifications are made to the deal)
Proposed reconstruction and investment fund is initiated by the end of 2026 (it actually begins to fund reconstruction projects and receive investments/mineral profits)
Either the US or Ukraine demand to renegotiate the deal by the end of Trump's second term
American companies secure >33% of the monetary value of Ukrainian post-war reconstruction contracts
US company or government takes ownership and operation of Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant
Deal includes security guarantee (guarantee that the US will defend Ukrainian sovereignty for a certain period of time post-war)
100
47
43
39
17
13