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Prediction markets for DEBS

US defaults on debt held by China before 2027?

Apr 7, 9:42 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

2.49%chance

66105900

OptionVotes

YES

NO

62572

1598

Would Freddie deBoer win his proposed bet with Scott Alexander?

Feb 14, 5:26 PMFeb 14, 5:23 PM

61.55%chance

19243815

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1265

790

Will Trump tout (positively promote) the possibility of default on US federal debt at any time during his second term?

Feb 2, 9:27 AMFeb 1, 1:59 PM

51.05%chance

4410157

OptionVotes

NO

YES

10938

8979

Will Taylor Swift re-release her debut album in 2026?

May 23, 12:12 AMJan 1, 3:59 AM

30%chance

245618

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1581

161

Technical default on US Treasury debt by 1/20/2029

Feb 11, 12:05 PMJan 21, 4:59 AM

15.96%chance

275012

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2295

436

AI controlled drone dogfights will make a debut in Ukraine by end of war.

Jul 8, 9:46 PMDec 16, 4:59 AM

53.49%chance

443110

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1128

980

Who will be the first female president of the U.S.?

Apr 9, 4:07 AMJan 2, 4:59 AM

462951

OptionProbability

Other

Kamala Harris

Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez

Ivanka Trump

Gretchen Whitmer

Nikki Haley

Stacey Abrams

Sarah Huckabee Sanders

Kristi Noem

Anna Paulina Luna

Krystal Ball

Carly Fiorina

Michelle Obama

Katie Porter

Elizabeth Warren

Tammy Baldwin

Tammy Duckworth

Oprah Winfrey

Michelle Lujan Grisham

Ayanna Pressley

Joni Ernst

Tina Kotek

Katie Hobbs

Barbara Lee

Young Kim

Lucy McBath

Cori Bush

Deb Haaland

Hillary Clinton

Meghan Markle, Duchess of Sussex

77

6

4

4

2

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

Will the US unilaterally restructure outstanding Treasury debt (coupon, maturity, swap) by December 31, 2030?

May 11, 2:28 PMDec 31, 12:00 AM

4.94%chance

62371

OptionVotes

NO

YES

10157

6048

Will an all AI system be used for real-time fact checking during a televised US presidential debate before 2029?

Jun 6, 10:21 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

32.61%chance

271389

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1167

885

5. Depreciation schedules become critically important, as debt plays growing role in the AI buildout [See full title!]

Dec 28, 11:28 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

69.47%chance

101079

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1511

664

If I ever debate Darth Dawkins, will I 'win' by Manifold's judgement?

Feb 14, 2:44 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

68.74%chance

1185

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1007

988

When will Senegal lower their debt to GDP ratio below 100%?

Apr 21, 4:23 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

00

OptionProbability

May-Aug 2026

Sep-Dec 2026

Jan-Apr 2027

May-Aug 2027

Sep-Dec 2027

20

20

20

20

20

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