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Prediction markets for DEBS

Scott Alexander is planning a COVID origins bet. If there is a debate, will judges conclude COVID came from a lab leak?

Apr 9, 1:33 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

34.1%chance

194280263

OptionVotes

YES

NO

10838

9495

US defaults on debt held by China before 2027?

Apr 7, 9:42 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

4.27%chance

5986466

OptionVotes

YES

NO

47365

2111

Will Trump tout (positively promote) the possibility of default on US federal debt at any time during his second term?

Feb 2, 9:27 AMFeb 1, 1:59 PM

53.7%chance

429653

OptionVotes

NO

YES

11488

8479

Will the alleged alien mummies from Peru be debunked before 2026?

Nov 10, 5:37 AMJan 1, 2:59 AM

15.44%chance

224795

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2007

125

Technical default on US Treasury debt by 1/20/2029

Feb 11, 12:05 PMJan 21, 4:59 AM

20.84%chance

274602

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1949

513

Who will be the first female president of the U.S.?

Apr 9, 4:07 AMJan 2, 4:59 AM

432799

OptionProbability

Other

Kamala Harris

Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez

Ivanka Trump

Gretchen Whitmer

Nikki Haley

Stacey Abrams

Kristi Noem

Anna Paulina Luna

Deb Haaland

Krystal Ball

Carly Fiorina

Michelle Obama

Katie Porter

Elizabeth Warren

Tammy Baldwin

Tammy Duckworth

Oprah Winfrey

Michelle Lujan Grisham

Sarah Huckabee Sanders

Ayanna Pressley

Joni Ernst

Tina Kotek

Katie Hobbs

Barbara Lee

Young Kim

Lucy McBath

Cori Bush

Hillary Clinton

Meghan Markle, Duchess of Sussex

69

7

6

6

3

2

1

1

1

1

1

1

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

AI controlled drone dogfights will make a debut in Ukraine by end of war.

Jul 8, 9:46 PMDec 16, 4:59 AM

38.53%chance

321920

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1263

792

Will an all AI system be used for real-time fact checking during a televised US presidential debate before 2029?

Jun 6, 10:21 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

32.3%chance

271379

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1177

880

Will annual U.S. debt interest payments exceed 20% of federal budget revenue by 2028?

May 29, 1:39 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

55.55%chance

11951

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1118

895

Will Annual UK Debt Interest Payments Exceed 20% of Government Budget Revenue by 2028?

May 29, 5:47 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

55.22%chance

2225

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1110

901

EU debt classified as sovereign before 2027?

Nov 20, 8:35 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

40.98%chance

2200

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1200

833

If I ever debate Darth Dawkins, will I 'win' by Manifold's judgement?

Feb 14, 2:44 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

68.74%chance

1185

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1007

988

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