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Prediction markets for DEBS

Scott Alexander is planning a COVID origins bet. If there is a debate, will judges conclude COVID came from a lab leak?

Apr 9, 1:33 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

19.25%chance

183266085

OptionVotes

YES

NO

17639

7122

US defaults on debt held by China before 2027?

Apr 7, 9:42 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

6.15%chance

5776632

OptionVotes

YES

NO

39050

2561

Will Trump tout (positively promote) the possibility of default on US federal debt at any time during his second term?

Feb 2, 9:27 AMFeb 1, 1:59 PM

53.76%chance

419642

OptionVotes

NO

YES

11501

8468

Which of these will Destiny debate next?

Jan 2, 12:06 AMJun 10, 6:59 AM

488079

OptionProbability

Abortion

Veganism

Incest

53

38

9

Technical default on US Treasury debt by 1/20/2029

Feb 11, 12:05 PMJan 21, 4:59 AM

22.52%chance

264536

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1855

539

Will the US national debt surpass 42 trillion during Trump's presidency?

Jun 30, 12:18 AMJan 20, 11:59 AM

68.82%chance

103650

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1486

673

Will the alleged alien mummies from Peru be debunked before 2026?

Nov 10, 5:37 AMJan 1, 2:59 AM

35.48%chance

173346

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1517

284

Who will be the first female president of the U.S.?

Apr 9, 4:07 AMJan 2, 4:59 AM

372230

OptionProbability

Other

Michelle Obama

Barbara Lee

Deb Haaland

Kamala Harris

Gretchen Whitmer

Nikki Haley

Elizabeth Warren

Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez

Krystal Ball

Tammy Duckworth

Carly Fiorina

Meghan Markle, Duchess of Sussex

Stacey Abrams

Katie Porter

Anna Paulina Luna

Tammy Baldwin

Oprah Winfrey

Michelle Lujan Grisham

Sarah Huckabee Sanders

Ayanna Pressley

Joni Ernst

Tina Kotek

Katie Hobbs

Kristi Noem

Young Kim

Lucy McBath

Cori Bush

Hillary Clinton

40

9

9

6

5

5

4

4

3

3

2

2

2

1

1

1

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

Will an all AI system be used for real-time fact checking during a televised US presidential debate before 2029?

Jun 6, 10:21 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

26.23%chance

261269

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1408

785

Will annual U.S. debt interest payments exceed 20% of federal budget revenue by 2028?

May 29, 1:39 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

55.55%chance

11951

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1118

895

Will Annual UK Debt Interest Payments Exceed 20% of Government Budget Revenue by 2028?

May 29, 5:47 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

55.22%chance

2225

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1110

901

If I ever debate Darth Dawkins, will I 'win' by Manifold's judgement?

Feb 14, 2:44 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

68.74%chance

1185

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1007

988

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