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US defaults on debt held by China before 2027?

Apr 7, 9:42 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

2.5%chance

66103875

OptionVotes

YES

NO

62487

1600

Would Freddie deBoer win his proposed bet with Scott Alexander?

Feb 14, 5:26 PMFeb 14, 5:23 PM

62%chance

18439674

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1277

783

Will Trump tout (positively promote) the possibility of default on US federal debt at any time during his second term?

Feb 2, 9:27 AMFeb 1, 1:59 PM

51.05%chance

4310153

OptionVotes

NO

YES

10938

8979

Technical default on US Treasury debt by 1/20/2029

Feb 11, 12:05 PMJan 21, 4:59 AM

20.84%chance

274602

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1949

513

Who will be the first female president of the U.S.?

Apr 9, 4:07 AMJan 2, 4:59 AM

432799

OptionProbability

Other

Kamala Harris

Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez

Ivanka Trump

Gretchen Whitmer

Nikki Haley

Stacey Abrams

Kristi Noem

Anna Paulina Luna

Deb Haaland

Krystal Ball

Carly Fiorina

Michelle Obama

Katie Porter

Elizabeth Warren

Tammy Baldwin

Tammy Duckworth

Oprah Winfrey

Michelle Lujan Grisham

Sarah Huckabee Sanders

Ayanna Pressley

Joni Ernst

Tina Kotek

Katie Hobbs

Barbara Lee

Young Kim

Lucy McBath

Cori Bush

Hillary Clinton

Meghan Markle, Duchess of Sussex

69

7

6

6

3

2

1

1

1

1

1

1

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

AI controlled drone dogfights will make a debut in Ukraine by end of war.

Jul 8, 9:46 PMDec 16, 4:59 AM

41.33%chance

331970

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1252

882

Will an all AI system be used for real-time fact checking during a televised US presidential debate before 2029?

Jun 6, 10:21 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

32.3%chance

271379

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1177

880

5. Depreciation schedules become critically important, as debt plays growing role in the AI buildout [See full title!]

Dec 28, 11:28 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

75.93%chance

8979

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1779

564

Will annual U.S. debt interest payments exceed 20% of federal budget revenue by 2028?

May 29, 1:39 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

55.55%chance

11951

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1118

895

EU debt classified as sovereign before 2027?

Nov 20, 8:35 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

46.8%chance

3308

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1066

938

Will Annual UK Debt Interest Payments Exceed 20% of Government Budget Revenue by 2028?

May 29, 5:47 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

55.22%chance

2225

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1110

901

If I ever debate Darth Dawkins, will I 'win' by Manifold's judgement?

Feb 14, 2:44 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

68.74%chance

1185

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1007

988

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