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Prediction markets for DECA

In which decade will China's GDP surpass US GDP?

Nov 3, 6:03 PMSep 30, 9:59 PM

5569476

OptionProbability

2030-2039

after 2049 or never

before 2030

2040-49

36

32

19

13

Will a new 'Highest Air Temperature on Earth' record be set this decade

Apr 5, 2:59 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

41.62%chance

13623838

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1928

769

The FDA will approve an AI developed cure before the end of the decade (<2030) for a previously incurable major illness.

Dec 21, 5:45 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

26.39%chance

11310856

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3127

765

Will I have a baby with my decade-younger boyfriend by 2029?

Aug 22, 11:52 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

45.52%chance

387378

OptionVotes

YES

NO

10909

9171

Will AI cause a financial crash within a decade? (By Oct 2032)

Oct 18, 4:53 PMOct 20, 3:59 AM

56%chance

625724

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1185

755

Will the Collatz conjecture be resolved by the end of the decade (11:59, 31 December 2029)?

Jul 5, 7:29 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

18.56%chance

394046

OptionVotes

NO

YES

996

838

Reform UK, French National Rally, and AfD all in power simultaneously this decade?

Sep 18, 4:13 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

13.3%chance

41275

OptionVotes

YES

NO

255

39

Will it be possible to disentangle most of the features learned by a model comparable to GPT-3 this decade? (1k subsidy)

Nov 15, 11:14 AMJan 1, 6:29 PM

57.93%chance

221154

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1586

1220

Will there be 1 billion famine deaths during the decade 2023 through 2032?

Dec 29, 3:36 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

7.22%chance

23911

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1135

961

Will Shelly Miscavige publicly speak out against Scientology by the end of the decade?

Apr 1, 2:38 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

34.27%chance

10207

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3530

3343

Will I have been a deca-millionaire before 2051?

Dec 11, 6:17 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

35.42%chance

8151

OptionVotes

NO

YES

166

164

In which decade will the prime factors of RSA-2048 first be known?

Jul 27, 10:45 PMJan 1, 5:00 AM

3110

OptionProbability

2080 or later

2040s

2030s

2020s

2050s

2060s

2070s

29

23

17

11

7

7

6

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