DeepMind AI News

In 2028, will traditional Big Tech be clearly ahead of AI-specific companies in AI technology?

Feb 20, 10:35 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM

25.52%chance

1479885

OptionVotes

YES

6410

4263

Will AI xrisk seem to be handled seriously by the end of 2026?

May 25, 5:47 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

19.44%chance

579068

OptionVotes

YES

1299

886

Will any frontier lab be near-fully automated before 2029?

May 10, 6:08 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

30.7%chance

298803

OptionVotes

YES

15025

6656

2. Details of SSI’s research and technology will leak. The big labs will make meaningful adjustments [See full title!]

Dec 28, 11:21 AMDec 29, 11:20 AM

18.49%chance

256659

OptionVotes

YES

2103

477

Will AGI arrive before Frozen 3?

Apr 25, 5:11 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

10.69%chance

216349

OptionVotes

YES

5359

1039

AI Singularity (props)

Mar 7, 12:48 PMMar 7, 12:48 PM

112783

OptionProbability

The top Elo score on the EQ-Bench Creative Writing v3 leaderboard exceeds 2000 before 2027-01-01

At least three major AI labs (xAI, OpenAI, Anthropic, Google DeepMind) release public multi-LLM agentic reasoning models before 2027-01-01

xAI makes an official public announcement claiming achievement of AGI before 2027-01-01

Anthropic makes an official public announcement claiming achievement of AGI before 2027-01-01

OpenAI makes an official public announcement claiming achievement of AGI before 2027-01-01

Google DeepMind makes an official public announcement claiming achievement of AGI before 2027-01-01

An international agreement signed by governments of at least the United States and China, restricting frontier AI research to mitigate extinction risks, before 2027-01-01

Will a major AI lab announce that the weights of one of its models were compromised in a cyberattack before 2027?

Sep 30, 1:41 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

25.25%chance

432253

OptionVotes

YES

1813

365

2 of the top 5 AI's are open source at eoy 2027? (ECI)

Jul 24, 3:49 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

35.9%chance

91750

OptionVotes

YES

2623

2468

By 2028, will I think DeepMind has been net-good for the world?

Dec 2, 8:32 PMJan 1, 12:00 AM

38.66%chance

251521

OptionVotes

YES

1156

871

"Will Google DeepMind release a system where the AI itself (not human engineers) generates improvements to its own code

Nov 5, 9:15 PMDec 15, 11:59 PM

3.01%chance

9861

OptionVotes

YES

567

Will a deepmind model be the first to succeed at the IMO Grand Challenge or the XTS AI-MO competition?

Nov 27, 5:30 PMJan 5, 4:59 AM

54.36%chance

9389

OptionVotes

YES

172

124

Will a Russian actor be publicly attributed with stealing weights from a frontier AI developer before 2030?

Oct 30, 11:42 AMJan 1, 11:59 PM

48.12%chance

4157

OptionVotes

YES

1091

1011

DeepMind AI News

Prediction markets for DeepMind AI

Prediction markets for DeepMind AI

Prediction markets for DeepMind AI

In 2028, will traditional Big Tech be clearly ahead of AI-specific companies in AI technology?

Will AI xrisk seem to be handled seriously by the end of 2026?

Will any frontier lab be near-fully automated before 2029?

2. Details of SSI’s research and technology will leak. The big labs will make meaningful adjustments [See full title!]

Will AGI arrive before Frozen 3?

AI Singularity (props)

Will a major AI lab announce that the weights of one of its models were compromised in a cyberattack before 2027?

2 of the top 5 AI's are open source at eoy 2027? (ECI)

By 2028, will I think DeepMind has been net-good for the world?

"Will Google DeepMind release a system where the AI itself (not human engineers) generates improvements to its own code

Will a deepmind model be the first to succeed at the IMO Grand Challenge or the XTS AI-MO competition?

Will a Russian actor be publicly attributed with stealing weights from a frontier AI developer before 2030?

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