DeepMind AI News

Will there be an assassination attempt on a CEO of a major AI lab by January 1, 2035?

Jun 2, 10:31 AMJan 1, 10:59 PM

44.25%chance

14918068

OptionVotes

YES

10080

9921

Will there be an assassination attempt on a CEO of a major AI lab by January 1, 2030?

May 21, 8:49 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

30%chance

8312770

OptionVotes

YES

1528

655

In 2028, will traditional Big Tech be clearly ahead of AI-specific companies in AI technology?

Feb 20, 10:35 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM

27%chance

1459501

OptionVotes

YES

3594

1876

Will AI xrisk seem to be handled seriously by the end of 2026?

May 25, 5:47 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

13.99%chance

475909

OptionVotes

YES

1739

800

Will AGI arrive before Frozen 3?

Apr 25, 5:11 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

13.9%chance

194054

OptionVotes

YES

4453

1165

AI Singularity (props)

Mar 7, 12:48 PMMar 7, 12:48 PM

112773

OptionProbability

The top Elo score on the EQ-Bench Creative Writing v3 leaderboard exceeds 2000 before 2027-01-01

At least three major AI labs (xAI, OpenAI, Anthropic, Google DeepMind) release public multi-LLM agentic reasoning models before 2027-01-01

xAI makes an official public announcement claiming achievement of AGI before 2027-01-01

Anthropic makes an official public announcement claiming achievement of AGI before 2027-01-01

OpenAI makes an official public announcement claiming achievement of AGI before 2027-01-01

Google DeepMind makes an official public announcement claiming achievement of AGI before 2027-01-01

An international agreement signed by governments of at least the United States and China, restricting frontier AI research to mitigate extinction risks, before 2027-01-01

By 2028, will I think DeepMind has been net-good for the world?

Dec 2, 8:32 PMJan 1, 12:00 AM

38.66%chance

251521

OptionVotes

YES

1156

871

2. Details of SSI’s research and technology will leak. The big labs will make meaningful adjustments [See full title!]

Dec 28, 11:21 AMDec 29, 11:20 AM

35.17%chance

161505

OptionVotes

YES

1360

738

Will a major AI lab announce that the weights of one of its models were compromised in a cyberattack before 2027?

Sep 30, 1:41 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

54.3%chance

301499

OptionVotes

YES

1134

802

Will Demis Hassabis's net worth exceed $3 billion USD by December 31, 2027?

Dec 7, 12:24 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

67.16%chance

5430

OptionVotes

YES

1430

699

Will a deepmind model be the first to succeed at the IMO Grand Challenge or the XTS AI-MO competition?

Nov 27, 5:30 PMJan 5, 4:59 AM

54.36%chance

9389

OptionVotes

YES

172

124

Will a Russian actor be publicly attributed with stealing weights from a frontier AI developer before 2030?

Oct 30, 11:42 AMJan 1, 11:59 PM

50.47%chance

3107

OptionVotes

YES

1059

1041

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Will there be an assassination attempt on a CEO of a major AI lab by January 1, 2035?

Will there be an assassination attempt on a CEO of a major AI lab by January 1, 2030?

In 2028, will traditional Big Tech be clearly ahead of AI-specific companies in AI technology?

Will AI xrisk seem to be handled seriously by the end of 2026?

Will AGI arrive before Frozen 3?

AI Singularity (props)

By 2028, will I think DeepMind has been net-good for the world?

2. Details of SSI’s research and technology will leak. The big labs will make meaningful adjustments [See full title!]

Will a major AI lab announce that the weights of one of its models were compromised in a cyberattack before 2027?

Will Demis Hassabis's net worth exceed $3 billion USD by December 31, 2027?

Will a deepmind model be the first to succeed at the IMO Grand Challenge or the XTS AI-MO competition?

Will a Russian actor be publicly attributed with stealing weights from a frontier AI developer before 2030?

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