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Top stories

Meta’s Superintelligence Lab Loses Eight Employees Including Rishabh Agarwal and Chaya Nayak Amid Billion-Dollar Hiring Spree

Meta’s Superintelligence Lab Loses Eight Employees Including Rishabh Agarwal and Chaya Nayak Amid Billion-Dollar Hiring Spree

Authors

17

1 year ago

Microsoft Debuts Home-Grown AI Models, Testing Independence From OpenAI

Microsoft Debuts Home-Grown AI Models, Testing Independence From OpenAI

Authors

10

1 year ago

Prediction markets for DeepMind

Will DeepMind researchers win a Fields Medal before 2030?

Jan 16, 3:01 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

1.43%chance

3711745

OptionVotes

YES

NO

8402

653

Will Google Deepmind and OpenAI have a major collaborative initiative by the end of 2030? (1000 mana subsidy)

Jun 19, 7:06 AMDec 30, 9:39 PM

31.84%chance

778757

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3509

1069

Will Google DeepMind cause human extinction in the next 5 years?

Jul 9, 11:21 AMJul 9, 9:59 PM

3.83%chance

353321

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2700

978

Will OpenAI, Google Deepmind or Anthropic de-domicile from the UK/US before 2027?

Nov 1, 12:50 PMNov 10, 11:59 PM

5.89%chance

223118

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2939

748

Will "Why I Left Google DeepMind" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review?

Jul 15, 6:58 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

90.89%chance

182684

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1779

29

Will OpenAI announce that they are cooperating with Deepmind, Anthropic, Meta or Google in order to mitigate race dynamics by 2027?

Feb 27, 5:52 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

54.03%chance

312454

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1229

575

Will a Google Deepmind model be ranked in the top 3 models at the end of 2026?

Aug 17, 5:54 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

33.92%chance

222242

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1396

716

By 2028, will I think DeepMind has been net-good for the world?

Dec 2, 8:32 PMJan 1, 12:00 AM

38.66%chance

251521

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1156

871

Is a room temperature superconducting crystal within the DeepMind-predicted dataset?

Dec 14, 3:49 AMJan 2, 4:59 AM

7.83%chance

121370

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1235

946

Which of the following breakthroughs will Deepmind achieve by 2030?

Mar 1, 10:50 AMJan 1, 3:59 PM

291192

OptionProbability

Find a room temperature superconductor, highly efficient photovoltaic cells, or an ultra-strong lightweight material

Find a cure for cancer, Alzheimer's or Diabetis

29

20

Will a top brand smartphone feature a DeepMind crystal material before 2028?

Nov 30, 9:00 PMJan 14, 11:59 PM

20.14%chance

161070

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1333

878

Will Anthropic, OpenAI and DeepMind voluntarily act in accordance with Trump’s executive order 14409 for all of 2026?

Jun 11, 10:15 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

63.01%chance

9247

OptionVotes

NO

YES

131

77

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