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Top stories

Meta’s Superintelligence Lab Loses Eight Employees Including Rishabh Agarwal and Chaya Nayak Amid Billion-Dollar Hiring Spree

Meta’s Superintelligence Lab Loses Eight Employees Including Rishabh Agarwal and Chaya Nayak Amid Billion-Dollar Hiring Spree

Authors

17

5 months ago

Microsoft Debuts Home-Grown AI Models, Testing Independence From OpenAI

Microsoft Debuts Home-Grown AI Models, Testing Independence From OpenAI

Authors

10

5 months ago

Prediction markets for DeepMind

Will DeepMind researchers win a Fields Medal before 2030?

Jan 16, 3:01 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

1.43%chance

3711745

OptionVotes

YES

NO

8402

653

Will Google Deepmind and OpenAI have a major collaborative initiative by the end of 2030? (1000 mana subsidy)

Jun 19, 7:06 AMDec 30, 9:39 PM

52.59%chance

767314

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2494

1805

Will Google DeepMind cause human extinction in the next 5 years?

Jul 9, 11:21 AMJul 9, 9:59 PM

3.84%chance

323198

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2698

978

Will OpenAI, Google Deepmind or Anthropic de-domicile from the UK/US before 2027?

Nov 1, 12:50 PMNov 10, 11:59 PM

4.76%chance

142733

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3519

716

By 2028, will I think DeepMind has been net-good for the world?

Dec 2, 8:32 PMJan 1, 12:00 AM

38.66%chance

251521

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1156

871

Is a room temperature superconducting crystal within the DeepMind-predicted dataset?

Dec 14, 3:49 AMJan 2, 4:59 AM

7.83%chance

121370

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1235

946

Which of the following breakthroughs will Deepmind achieve by 2030?

Mar 1, 10:50 AMJan 1, 3:59 PM

271156

OptionProbability

Find a room temperature superconductor, highly efficient photovoltaic cells, or an ultra-strong lightweight material

Find a cure for cancer, Alzheimer's or Diabetis

29

23

Will a top brand smartphone feature a DeepMind crystal material before 2028?

Nov 30, 9:00 PMJan 14, 11:59 PM

20.14%chance

161070

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1333

878

Will OpenAI, Deepmind, or Anthropic be the next to release a frontier LLM?

Dec 14, 6:38 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

7950

OptionProbability

Anthropic

OpenAI

Deepmind

64

25

11

Will OpenAI announce that they are cooperating with Deepmind, Anthropic, Meta or Google in order to mitigate race dynamics by 2027?

Feb 27, 5:52 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

68.33%chance

23721

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1034

888

Will any of DeepMind's formal conjectures be resolved before 2027?

Aug 10, 9:10 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

96.59%chance

5495

OptionVotes

NO

YES

533

19

DeepMind's DiLoCo - how big of a blow to compute governance?

Jan 5, 11:45 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

26.34%chance

399

OptionVotes

YES

NO

105

49

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