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Prediction markets for DeepSeek AI

Did DeepSeek lie about the GPU compute budget they used in the training of v3?

Jan 25, 5:04 AMJan 1, 5:59 AM

12.58%chance

7132050

OptionVotes

YES

NO

25925

4669

Another MechaHitler in one month?

Jul 10, 12:44 PMOct 10, 12:39 PM

20.25%chance

17417935

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1985

504

When will Deepseek R2 be released?

Mar 25, 12:18 AMJun 30, 10:59 PM

3214495

Did DeepSeek receive unannounced assistance from OpenAI in the creation of their v3 model?

Jan 22, 1:26 AMJan 2, 5:59 AM

7.51%chance

268890

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3509

285

When will Deepseek V4 be released?

Mar 25, 12:16 AMJun 30, 10:59 PM

237853

Will a mainstream AI model pass the stick figure arrow name test in 2025?

Apr 12, 12:02 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

51.56%chance

606085

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1032

969

On Dec 31, 2025, will a widely available AI model be able to write a sophisticated 2000 line program?

Dec 28, 2:47 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

71.5%chance

233794

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1584

631

will DeepSeek become a closed AI lab by EOY?

Jan 27, 3:30 AMDec 31, 10:59 AM

19.42%chance

293618

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2037

491

XRP price above $6.9 by December 31st, 2025

Feb 20, 4:25 PMDec 31, 12:00 AM

15%chance

72960

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2380

420

At end of 2025, one of the top five software engineering AIs will be exclusively used by 100 or fewer tech companies

Feb 6, 3:31 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

26.4%chance

71077

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1670

599

Will AGI create a consensus among experts on how to safely increase AI capabilities?

Mar 12, 8:26 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

36.77%chance

9913

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1311

763

Will a mainstream AI model pass the stick figure arrow name test in 2025? (Freely accessible models only)

Apr 11, 2:34 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

26.92%chance

28663

OptionVotes

YES

NO

165

61

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