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Top stories

DeepSeek Launches 685B-Parameter Hybrid V3.1 AI Model With 128K Token Context and Boosts Cambricon Stock

DeepSeek Launches 685B-Parameter Hybrid V3.1 AI Model With 128K Token Context and Boosts Cambricon Stock

Authors

59

1 year ago

Prediction markets for DeepSeek

DeepSeek V4 Pro METR 50% time horizon

Aug 8, 11:09 PMOct 31, 10:59 PM

3113888

OptionProbability

4h - 5h

5h - 6h

6h - 7h

8h - 9h

9h - 10h

7h - 8h

3.5h - 4h

3h - 3.5h

2h - 2.5h

2.5h - 3h

10h - 11h

<1.5h

1.5h - 2h

11h - 12h

>=12h

20

15

11

9

9

8

6

5

4

3

3

2

2

2

2

Will DeepSeek's next reasoning model be called R3?

Feb 10, 8:33 AMSep 30, 11:59 AM

1%chance

3713742

OptionVotes

YES

NO

9950

101

Will ANY DeepSeek model cause or materially enable a catastrophic risk by 2027?

Jan 21, 11:42 PMJan 29, 4:59 AM

3.01%chance

5512423

OptionVotes

YES

NO

8856

317

DeepSeek IPO before 2028?

Jul 14, 11:15 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

71.08%chance

423676

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1568

638

Will the first major multimodal DeepSeek release be video oriented and suited for robot control?

Jan 10, 6:42 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

11.06%chance

91804

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2593

599

Will DeepSeek release a proprietary model for sale before EOY 2026?

Aug 22, 9:56 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

20.59%chance

101431

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1964

509

Will DeepSeek be banned in US before 2027?

Jan 25, 8:32 PMJan 2, 9:59 AM

12.68%chance

17659

OptionVotes

YES

NO

262

38

Will DeepSeek's Manifold-Constrained Hyper-Connections (mHC) be used publically by another big lab in 2026?

Jan 6, 10:08 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

38.71%chance

11597

OptionVotes

YES

NO

872

267

Is there an American spy working at Deepseek?

Mar 2, 1:06 AMJan 1, 10:59 PM

44%chance

18334

OptionVotes

YES

NO

113

89

Before 2028, will Liang Wenfeng (of DeepSeek) be disappeared by the CCP for more than a month?

Feb 7, 1:34 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

21.18%chance

12321

OptionVotes

YES

NO

193

52

Will we believe in 2050 that an instance of DeepSeek V3 run by 2025 possessed "consciousness"?

Nov 2, 11:58 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

24.54%chance

10274

OptionVotes

YES

NO

175

57

Any leading Chinese AI lab (e.g. Deepseek, Moonshot, Zhipu) nationalized by EOY 2027?

Feb 25, 6:08 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

55.2%chance

6134

OptionVotes

NO

YES

111

90

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