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Prediction markets for Defense Express

Will the USA control Greenland by EOY2026?

Dec 24, 2:36 AMJan 2, 4:59 AM

4.87%chance

366456

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1422

375

Will the US send more patriot air defense systems to Ukraine before September 30, 2025?

Jun 26, 6:03 AMSep 29, 11:59 PM

87%chance

202595

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2587

387

Trump's first cabinet member fired, failed, or resigned Pete Hegseth?

Apr 21, 8:52 PMJan 19, 11:59 PM

41.06%chance

342484

OptionVotes

YES

NO

120

83

NATO joins USA-Iran conflict before 2026?

Jun 22, 10:25 AMDec 30, 11:59 PM

14.49%chance

191990

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2430

412

Will Trump threaten to cancel AUKUS before 2029?

Feb 7, 8:18 AMDec 31, 3:59 PM

85.1%chance

81672

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2390

418

The chances of US civil war this year?

Jun 14, 2:01 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

6.31%chance

171282

OptionVotes

YES

NO

385

26

Iran officially accused by NATO of attacking a member state before 2026?

Jun 22, 2:02 PMDec 30, 11:59 PM

17.25%chance

81230

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2190

457

Will russia attack and/or occupy european NATO area until EOY2029? And if so, where will that happen first?

May 23, 4:15 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

6693

OptionProbability

Not on NATO area/Not at all

Finland

Other

Estonia

Lithuania

Latvia

79

7

6

3

3

3

Will Trump pressure the EU to stop supporting Ukraine?

Mar 4, 7:33 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

11.39%chance

14443

OptionVotes

YES

NO

279

36

When will Anduril Industries IPO?

May 29, 11:56 AMDec 31, 12:55 PM

3302

OptionProbability

Q4 2026

Q3 2026

Anduril will not IPO

Q4 2025

Q1 2026

Q2 2026

Q1 2027

Q2 2027

Q3 2027

Q4 2027

2028 or later

Q3 2025

26

18

7

6

6

6

6

6

6

6

6

1

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