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Prediction markets for Defense Minister

Finland undersea cable break - cause will be:

Dec 26, 10:54 AMSep 1, 9:59 PM

349047

OptionProbability

Sabotage

Shipping mishap

Cause will not be found

Other

On-land mishap

98

18

7

4

2

How long will Andrey Belousov last as Russia's Minister of 'Defense' (War)

May 12, 9:02 PMMay 19, 10:59 PM

81373

OptionProbability

1-2 years

2+ years

6 months-a year

Less than two weeks

2 weeks-1 month

2-6 months

64

46

2

1

1

1

Will Putin's former defense minister Sergei Shoigu be alive at the end of 2025?

May 12, 11:36 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

87.11%chance

301360

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1985

1730

Which nations will take in Palestinian refugees?

Feb 10, 10:03 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

13999

OptionProbability

Spain

Canada

Lebanon

Sweden

Qatar

Ireland

Norway

Jordan

Egypt

Saudi Arabia

Germany

Turkey

United Kingdom

United States

Israel

78

60

58

55

55

54

53

52

52

50

50

44

38

10

8

Will China's Defense Minister Li Shangfu die in a plane crash?

Sep 15, 11:22 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

4.22%chance

9503

OptionVotes

YES

NO

510

120

Will the US or Israel threaten to use nuclear weapons against Iran before 2029?

Jun 22, 2:04 AMJan 1, 2:59 AM

51.8%chance

11494

OptionVotes

NO

YES

104

96

Who will lose his job first: Defense Secretary Hegseth or Defense Minister Dong?

Apr 22, 3:42 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

8151

OptionProbability

Pete Hegseth

Dong Jun

76

24

Will Australia enter into any similar agreement to the Falepili Union with another Pacific Island country before 2030?

Nov 10, 11:06 AMJan 1, 3:59 PM

68.93%chance

594

OptionVotes

NO

YES

182

129

Will Norway, Spain or Ireland take in more than 1000 Palestinian refugees before 2027?

Feb 6, 9:23 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

60.4%chance

551

OptionVotes

NO

YES

124

81

Will any other country enter into a similar agreement to the Falepili Union with a Pacific Island country before 2030?

Nov 10, 11:50 AMJan 1, 3:59 PM

74.61%chance

250

OptionVotes

NO

YES

140

61

Has PLA General He Weidong (何卫东) been arrested?

Mar 18, 5:01 AMDec 31, 3:59 PM

69.23%chance

350

OptionVotes

NO

YES

150

67

Will a spokesperson for the PRC Ministry of National Defense confirm that Dong Jun is under investigation by this date?

Dec 16, 9:30 AMDec 31, 3:59 PM

215

OptionProbability

January 1st 2026

January 1st 2027

January 1st 2028

July 1st 2025

50

50

50

41

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