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Top stories

Pentagon Prepares Strike Options Against Mexican Cartel Targets

US Foreign Policy

Pentagon Prepares Strike Options Against Mexican Cartel Targets

Authors

5

10 months ago

Trump Signals Plan to Rename Pentagon the ‘Department of War’ Within Week

Trump Signals Plan to Rename Pentagon the ‘Department of War’ Within Week

Authors

60

10 months ago

Prediction markets for Defense

Will Luigi Magione’s defense claim mental health or substance impairment in court?

Dec 9, 9:07 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

15.31%chance

19736834

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2352

425

OpenAI will be nationalized or have the Defense Production Act applied to it by mid 2030

Jun 5, 3:33 PMJul 1, 6:59 AM

34.5%chance

6422808

OptionVotes

YES

NO

13402

7535

Will Pete Hegseth serve a full term as Secretary of Defense (until January 2029)?

Jan 25, 1:15 PMJan 16, 4:59 AM

20.86%chance

11820863

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1948

514

[Metaculus] Will the U.S. make an official statement before 2030 threatening nuclear use in the defense of Taiwan?

Jul 10, 10:57 PMJan 2, 12:00 PM

11.13%chance

105772

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2826

354

If Pete Hegseth is confirmed, will he be seen drinking a drop of alcohol while he is Secretary of Defense?

Dec 5, 6:26 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

45.3%chance

403871

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1244

964

Will Elon Musk use the X rebrand as defense strategy during Twitter bankruptcy by December 2027?

Aug 12, 4:40 AMJan 1, 2:59 AM

20.99%chance

191753

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1815

628

EU defense stocks vs South Korea defense stocks: EUAD ETF outperforms KDEF ETF in total return by end of 2029

Mar 10, 2:16 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

44.39%chance

6801

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1119

893

Medicare/Medicaid no longer #1 US budget item in 2028? (excluding defense)

Jul 9, 4:13 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

33.95%chance

8485

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1395

717

Will Russia or North Korea honor mutual defense pact if the other is attacked?

Jun 19, 4:49 PMJan 1, 8:00 AM

77.85%chance

5205

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1087

953

Elon Musk Work for the US Defense Industry to create weapons before 2040

Apr 23, 5:53 PMJan 2, 6:59 AM

27.32%chance

11176

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1030

981

Before 2028, will the US Federal Government have paid more than $5B to NVIDIA under the Defense Production Act?

Dec 24, 3:24 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

54.23%chance

4120

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1119

949

Will "In defense of parents" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review?

May 4, 12:20 AMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

12.74%chance

2105

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1098

985

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