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Top stories

Pentagon Prepares Strike Options Against Mexican Cartel Targets

US Foreign Policy

Pentagon Prepares Strike Options Against Mexican Cartel Targets

Authors

5

6 months ago

Trump Signals Plan to Rename Pentagon the ‘Department of War’ Within Week

Trump Signals Plan to Rename Pentagon the ‘Department of War’ Within Week

Authors

60

5 months ago

Prediction markets for Defense

Will Luigi Magione’s defense claim mental health or substance impairment in court?

Dec 9, 9:07 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

41%chance

19028884

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1200

834

OpenAI will be nationalized or have the Defense Production Act applied to it by mid 2030

Jun 5, 3:33 PMJul 1, 6:59 AM

27.06%chance

6120269

OptionVotes

YES

NO

16061

6360

Will Pete Hegseth serve a full term as Secretary of Defense (until January 2029)?

Jan 25, 1:15 PMJan 16, 4:59 AM

30.37%chance

11119692

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1515

661

[Metaculus] Will the U.S. make an official statement before 2030 threatening nuclear use in the defense of Taiwan?

Jul 10, 10:57 PMJan 2, 12:00 PM

11.13%chance

105772

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2826

354

If Pete Hegseth is confirmed, will he be seen drinking a drop of alcohol while he is Secretary of Defense?

Dec 5, 6:26 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

44.96%chance

393771

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1253

957

Will Elon Musk use the X rebrand as defense strategy during Twitter bankruptcy by December 2027?

Aug 12, 4:40 AMJan 1, 2:59 AM

26.77%chance

181382

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1515

722

EU defense stocks vs South Korea defense stocks: EUAD ETF outperforms KDEF ETF in total return by end of 2029

Mar 10, 2:16 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

44.39%chance

6801

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1119

893

NFL 2025 - Which position will win Defensive Rookie of the Year?

May 13, 2:41 AMFeb 28, 3:59 PM

6525

OptionProbability

LB

DT

Edge

CB

S

95

1

1

1

1

Medicare/Medicaid no longer #1 US budget item in 2028? (excluding defense)

Jul 9, 4:13 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

33.95%chance

8485

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1395

717

Will Russia or North Korea honor mutual defense pact if the other is attacked?

Jun 19, 4:49 PMJan 1, 8:00 AM

77.85%chance

5205

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1087

953

Elon Musk Work for the US Defense Industry to create weapons before 2040

Apr 23, 5:53 PMJan 2, 6:59 AM

27.32%chance

11176

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1030

981

Before 2028, will the US Federal Government have paid more than $5B to NVIDIA under the Defense Production Act?

Dec 24, 3:24 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

54.23%chance

4120

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1119

949

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