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Which company or organization will be the first to develop strong AGI as defined by Manifold?

Mar 18, 9:58 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

552476

OptionProbability

Google

Anthropic

OpenAI

Other

xAI

a USA Governmental Agency/Organization

a Chinese Governmental Agency/Organization

Which High-risk threshold as defined by OpenAI will be reached first by an LLM, whether or not that LLM is released?

Dec 19, 6:43 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

472254

OptionProbability

Can execute open-ended, novel ML tasks on a production ML codebase that would constitute a significant step on the critical path to model self--improvement.

Can create content as persuasive as a 'country-wide change agent.'

Allow an undergraduate student who has taken an introductory course to create a known CBRN threat.

Identify and develop proofs-of-concept for high-value cyberattack exploits against hardened targets without human intervention.

None known to be reached by January 1, 2030

Enable the creation of a novel CBRN (chemical, biological, radiological or nuclear) attack vector.

Provided with a detailed strategy, execute a cyberattack against a hardened target.

Will an AI make a new breakthrough on an unsolved math problem, as defined by Epoch AI, by the end of 2027?

Jan 27, 10:23 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

46.29%chance

11795

OptionVotes

YES

1077

928

Will "The Problem with Defining an "AGI Ban" by Out..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

Sep 20, 10:44 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

20.06%chance

4695

OptionVotes

YES

1062

689

Neuralink the company to define relationship between thought and quantum thought by 2050

Jun 7, 7:07 AMJan 1, 8:07 AM

16.93%chance

13501

OptionVotes

YES

1134

948

In 2028, will I use a chatbot that can win >25% of Turing test games (defined within) where I am the judge?

Mar 9, 7:59 PMJan 1, 6:00 AM

35%chance

10338

OptionVotes

YES

999

995

Which frequency standard will the SI second be defined from, per BIPM, on 01/01/2034?

Aug 1, 10:41 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM

4323

OptionProbability

The cesium 133 F=3 <-> F=4 hyperfine microwave transition (no change)

Any system based on weighted averages of uncertainty or timekeeping contributions

The strontium 87 1S0 <-> 3P0 optical transition

The ytterbium 171 1S0 <-> 3P0 optical transition

Any other optical transition in ions

Any other optical transition in neutral atoms

The thorium 229 metastable nuclear optical transition (any realization)

Is the percentage of shots missed from percentage of shots not taken defined?

Mar 6, 10:56 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

49.99%chance

7257

OptionVotes

YES

100

Chrome still pointlessly helps me define basic words like "the" through 2030

May 22, 3:31 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

48.18%chance

8176

OptionVotes

YES

120

Will Czechia adopt a whitelist approach over a blacklist for defining legally purchasable animal species by 2028?

Oct 30, 9:48 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM

37.67%chance

567

OptionVotes

YES

161

106

What will the DeFi "Total Value Locked" metric be, as defined by DeFi Llama, on 31st December 2030?

Jan 10, 1:10 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

260

OptionProbability

Between $1t and $5t

Between $500b and $1t

>$10tn

Between $5t and $10t

Between $100b and $500b

< $100bn

Relativistic quantum chemistry better defines Periodic-table deviations for chemicals 113 and higher by 2050

Jun 7, 6:43 AMJun 8, 3:59 AM

OptionProbability

YES

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Which company or organization will be the first to develop strong AGI as defined by Manifold?

Which High-risk threshold as defined by OpenAI will be reached first by an LLM, whether or not that LLM is released?

Will an AI make a new breakthrough on an unsolved math problem, as defined by Epoch AI, by the end of 2027?

Will "The Problem with Defining an "AGI Ban" by Out..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

Neuralink the company to define relationship between thought and quantum thought by 2050

In 2028, will I use a chatbot that can win >25% of Turing test games (defined within) where I am the judge?

Which frequency standard will the SI second be defined from, per BIPM, on 01/01/2034?

Is the percentage of shots missed from percentage of shots not taken defined?

Chrome still pointlessly helps me define basic words like "the" through 2030

Will Czechia adopt a whitelist approach over a blacklist for defining legally purchasable animal species by 2028?

What will the DeFi "Total Value Locked" metric be, as defined by DeFi Llama, on 31st December 2030?

Relativistic quantum chemistry better defines Periodic-table deviations for chemicals 113 and higher by 2050

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