Define News

Will an AI make a new breakthrough on an unsolved math problem, as defined by Epoch AI, by the end of 2027?

Jan 27, 10:23 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

64.86%chance

244343

OptionVotes

YES

1359

736

Will someone exploit MNX for all of their money (defined expansively)?

Feb 28, 4:55 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

15%chance

122546

OptionVotes

YES

238

Which High-risk threshold as defined by OpenAI will be reached first by an LLM, whether or not that LLM is released?

Dec 19, 6:43 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

472254

OptionProbability

Can execute open-ended, novel ML tasks on a production ML codebase that would constitute a significant step on the critical path to model self--improvement.

Can create content as persuasive as a 'country-wide change agent.'

Allow an undergraduate student who has taken an introductory course to create a known CBRN threat.

Identify and develop proofs-of-concept for high-value cyberattack exploits against hardened targets without human intervention.

None known to be reached by January 1, 2030

Enable the creation of a novel CBRN (chemical, biological, radiological or nuclear) attack vector.

Provided with a detailed strategy, execute a cyberattack against a hardened target.

Which country will be the first to create the first true AGI as defined by Manifold?

Mar 16, 11:17 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

452039

OptionProbability

USA

China

Other

United Kingdom

Australia

France

Japan

India

Russia

Will "The Problem with Defining an "AGI Ban" by Out..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

Sep 20, 10:44 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

20.06%chance

4695

OptionVotes

YES

1062

689

Neuralink the company to define relationship between thought and quantum thought by 2050

Jun 7, 7:07 AMJan 1, 8:07 AM

16.93%chance

13501

OptionVotes

YES

1134

948

In 2028, will I use a chatbot that can win >25% of Turing test games (defined within) where I am the judge?

Mar 9, 7:59 PMJan 1, 6:00 AM

35%chance

10338

OptionVotes

YES

999

995

Which frequency standard will the SI second be defined from, per BIPM, on 01/01/2034?

Aug 1, 10:41 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM

4323

OptionProbability

The cesium 133 F=3 <-> F=4 hyperfine microwave transition (no change)

Any system based on weighted averages of uncertainty or timekeeping contributions

The strontium 87 1S0 <-> 3P0 optical transition

The ytterbium 171 1S0 <-> 3P0 optical transition

Any other optical transition in ions

Any other optical transition in neutral atoms

The thorium 229 metastable nuclear optical transition (any realization)

Is the percentage of shots missed from percentage of shots not taken defined?

Mar 6, 10:56 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

49.99%chance

7257

OptionVotes

YES

100

Chrome still pointlessly helps me define basic words like "the" through 2030

May 22, 3:31 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

48.18%chance

8176

OptionVotes

YES

120

Will the generation after generation alpha also be defined by a technological rather than political/cultural change?

Jan 30, 4:01 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM

52.94%chance

1077

OptionVotes

YES

170

What will the DeFi "Total Value Locked" metric be, as defined by DeFi Llama, on 31st December 2030?

Jan 10, 1:10 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

260

OptionProbability

Between $1t and $5t

Between $500b and $1t

>$10tn

Between $5t and $10t

Between $100b and $500b

< $100bn

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Will an AI make a new breakthrough on an unsolved math problem, as defined by Epoch AI, by the end of 2027?

Will someone exploit MNX for all of their money (defined expansively)?

Which High-risk threshold as defined by OpenAI will be reached first by an LLM, whether or not that LLM is released?

Which country will be the first to create the first true AGI as defined by Manifold?

Will "The Problem with Defining an "AGI Ban" by Out..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

Neuralink the company to define relationship between thought and quantum thought by 2050

In 2028, will I use a chatbot that can win >25% of Turing test games (defined within) where I am the judge?

Which frequency standard will the SI second be defined from, per BIPM, on 01/01/2034?

Is the percentage of shots missed from percentage of shots not taken defined?

Chrome still pointlessly helps me define basic words like "the" through 2030

Will the generation after generation alpha also be defined by a technological rather than political/cultural change?

What will the DeFi "Total Value Locked" metric be, as defined by DeFi Llama, on 31st December 2030?

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