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Prediction markets for Define

Will an AI make a new breakthrough on the hardest math problems, as defined by Epoch AI, by the end of 2027?

Jan 27, 10:23 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

71.82%chance

5113818

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1597

626

Will someone exploit MNX for all of their money (defined expansively)?

Feb 28, 4:55 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

15%chance

122626

OptionVotes

YES

NO

238

42

Which company or organization will be the first to develop strong AGI as defined by Manifold?

Mar 18, 9:58 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

562516

OptionProbability

Anthropic

Google

OpenAI

Other

xAI

a USA Governmental Agency/Organization

a Chinese Governmental Agency/Organization

Meta

Microsoft

Nvidia

AMD

IBM

AI company founded by @jim

29

18

16

15

9

6

2

2

1

1

1

0

0

Which country will be the first to create the first true AGI as defined by Manifold?

Mar 16, 11:17 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

452039

OptionProbability

USA

China

Other

United Kingdom

Australia

France

Japan

India

Russia

66

23

3

2

1

1

1

1

0

Will there be any Chinese Fable-level models by March 2027, defined as a model with an ECI score of 160 or higher?

Jul 14, 1:48 PMFeb 28, 11:59 PM

88%chance

131869

OptionVotes

NO

YES

271

37

Will we have a scenario like "2030: Takeover" as defined in AI 2027 before the end of Q1, 2030?

Jul 6, 6:48 PMMar 31, 11:59 PM

19.06%chance

41109

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2061

485

Will "The Problem with Defining an "AGI Ban" by Out..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

Sep 20, 10:44 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

20.06%chance

4695

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1062

689

Neuralink the company to define relationship between thought and quantum thought by 2050

Jun 7, 7:07 AMJan 1, 8:07 AM

16.93%chance

13501

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1134

948

In 2028, will I use a chatbot that can win >25% of Turing test games (defined within) where I am the judge?

Mar 9, 7:59 PMJan 1, 6:00 AM

35%chance

10338

OptionVotes

YES

NO

999

995

Chrome still pointlessly helps me define basic words like "the" through 2030

May 22, 3:31 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

48.18%chance

8176

OptionVotes

YES

NO

120

98

Will the generation after generation alpha also be defined by a technological rather than political/cultural change?

Jan 30, 4:01 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM

52.94%chance

1077

OptionVotes

NO

YES

170

170

Relativistic quantum chemistry better defines Periodic-table deviations for chemicals 113 and higher by 2050

Jun 7, 6:43 AMJun 8, 3:59 AM

00

OptionProbability

NO

YES

50

50

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