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Prediction markets for Definely

Will we have a superhuman mathematician by the beginning of 2026 (as defined here: https://twitter.com/ChrSzegedy/status/1598341927828594688)?

Dec 4, 11:56 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

9.41%chance

342568

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2263

732

Which country will be the first to create the first true AGI as defined by Manifold?

Mar 16, 11:17 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

441989

OptionProbability

USA

China

Other

United Kingdom

Australia

France

Japan

India

Russia

64

26

3

2

1

1

1

1

0

Will Eliezer Yudkowsky create a tulpa/headmate or define himself as a plural system before January 1st 2026.

Mar 3, 1:02 AMJan 2, 10:59 PM

2.48%chance

12989

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1189

111

Will "The Problem with Defining an "AGI Ban" by Out..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

Sep 20, 10:44 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

20.06%chance

4695

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1062

689

Neuralink the company to define relationship between thought and quantum thought by 2050

Jun 7, 7:07 AMJan 1, 8:07 AM

16.93%chance

13501

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1134

948

In 2028, will I use a chatbot that can win >25% of Turing test games (defined within) where I am the judge?

Mar 9, 7:59 PMJan 1, 6:00 AM

35%chance

10338

OptionVotes

YES

NO

999

995

Which frequency standard will the SI second be defined from, per BIPM, on 01/01/2034?

Aug 1, 10:41 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM

4323

OptionProbability

The cesium 133 F=3 <-> F=4 hyperfine microwave transition (no change)

Any system based on weighted averages of uncertainty or timekeeping contributions

The strontium 87 1S0 <-> 3P0 optical transition

The ytterbium 171 1S0 <-> 3P0 optical transition

Any other optical transition in ions

Any other optical transition in neutral atoms

The thorium 229 metastable nuclear optical transition (any realization)

39

22

12

12

8

5

2

Is the percentage of shots missed from percentage of shots not taken defined?

Mar 6, 10:56 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

49.99%chance

7257

OptionVotes

NO

YES

100

100

Will "Defining alignment research" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2024 Annual Review?

Aug 5, 8:18 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

13.73%chance

348

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1019

997

Will a girl be discovered to have a world-defining crush on Jose Luis Ricon by 2025?

Sep 11, 1:56 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

35.2%chance

348

OptionVotes

YES

NO

115

72

By how many years would AGI-induced transformative impact (defined as sustained global GDP growth of +5% annually) be de

May 18, 7:34 PMDec 31, 8:31 PM

00

OptionProbability

0 - 4

5 - 9

10 - 19

20 - 29

30 - 49

50 - 100

Above 100

14

14

14

14

14

14

14

Relativistic quantum chemistry better defines Periodic-table deviations for chemicals 113 and higher by 2050

Jun 7, 6:43 AMJun 8, 3:59 AM

00

OptionProbability

NO

YES

50

50

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