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Prediction markets for Definely

Will an AI make a new breakthrough on the hardest math problems, as defined by Epoch AI, by the end of 2027?

Jan 27, 10:23 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

86.17%chance

5916534

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2496

401

Which company or organization will be the first to develop strong AGI as defined by Manifold?

Mar 18, 9:58 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

622586

OptionProbability

Anthropic

Google

OpenAI

Other

xAI

a USA Governmental Agency/Organization

Nvidia

a Chinese Governmental Agency/Organization

Meta

Microsoft

AMD

IBM

AI company founded by @jim

29

17

16

14

7

5

3

2

2

1

1

0

0

Will there be any Chinese Fable-level models by March 2027, defined as a model with an ECI score of 160 or higher?

Jul 14, 1:48 PMFeb 28, 11:59 PM

88%chance

131869

OptionVotes

NO

YES

271

37

Will Vilenkin's tunneling wave function become well-defined in his life time?

Sep 3, 1:24 AMSep 3, 1:20 AM

16.6%chance

51563

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2242

446

Will we have a scenario like "2030: Takeover" as defined in AI 2027 before the end of Q1, 2030?

Jul 6, 6:48 PMMar 31, 11:59 PM

19.06%chance

41109

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2061

485

Will "The Problem with Defining an "AGI Ban" by Out..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

Sep 20, 10:44 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

20.06%chance

4695

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1062

689

Neuralink the company to define relationship between thought and quantum thought by 2050

Jun 7, 7:07 AMJan 1, 8:07 AM

16.93%chance

13501

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1134

948

In 2028, will I use a chatbot that can win >25% of Turing test games (defined within) where I am the judge?

Mar 9, 7:59 PMJan 1, 6:00 AM

35%chance

10338

OptionVotes

YES

NO

999

995

Which frequency standard will the SI second be defined from, per BIPM, on 01/01/2034?

Aug 1, 10:41 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM

4323

OptionProbability

The cesium 133 F=3 <-> F=4 hyperfine microwave transition (no change)

Any system based on weighted averages of uncertainty or timekeeping contributions

The strontium 87 1S0 <-> 3P0 optical transition

The ytterbium 171 1S0 <-> 3P0 optical transition

Any other optical transition in ions

Any other optical transition in neutral atoms

The thorium 229 metastable nuclear optical transition (any realization)

39

22

12

12

8

5

2

Will the fundamental law of Hungary define a human being as either male or female on April 1st 2030?

Apr 12, 7:52 PMApr 1, 12:00 AM

28.82%chance

7211

OptionVotes

YES

NO

157

64

Will Czechia adopt a whitelist approach over a blacklist for defining legally purchasable animal species by 2028?

Oct 30, 9:48 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM

37.67%chance

567

OptionVotes

YES

NO

161

106

What will the DeFi "Total Value Locked" metric be, as defined by DeFi Llama, on 31st December 2030?

Jan 10, 1:10 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

260

OptionProbability

Between $1t and $5t

Between $500b and $1t

>$10tn

Between $5t and $10t

Between $100b and $500b

< $100bn

54

22

6

6

6

6

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