Definitive Intelligence News

Will we have near-complete automation of the world economy before 2035?

Aug 7, 6:58 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

23.8%chance

8838615

OptionVotes

YES

1020

841

Are LLMs capable of reaching AGI?

Oct 19, 6:00 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

51.36%chance

12437063

OptionVotes

YES

14097

6644

Will AI have a trillion+ dollar impact by the end of 2030?

Oct 29, 12:44 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

95.94%chance

10423726

OptionVotes

YES

9951

741

Will there be more than 100K AI successionists globally by Nov 7, 2028?

Apr 28, 4:20 AMNov 7, 11:59 PM

31%chance

1819062

OptionVotes

YES

1492

670

In what specific year will we hit AGI?

Mar 12, 9:42 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

9217483

OptionProbability

2027

2028

2035+

2029

2030

2026

2031

2032

2033

2034

2025

Will GPT-6 be considered to be AGI?

Aug 7, 6:48 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM

6.54%chance

305941

OptionVotes

YES

3519

Who Will Be the First to Reveal Human-Level AGI?

Mar 3, 4:53 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

685340

OptionProbability

Deepmind/Google/Alphabet

Anthropic

OpenAI/Microsoft

Another specific company (not one of the above or a subsidiary)

xAI or another Elon Musk-led AI initiative

A government or coalition of governments

Meta (Facebook) AI Research

A university/academic institute/independent researcher/non-profit organization or a combination of these

Will GPT-5 make Manifold think very near-term AGI is more likely?

Mar 3, 1:41 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

7.48%chance

474616

OptionVotes

YES

3122

158

If a definitive genetic study of race and intelligence gets performed, what will the W/B genetic g difference be?

Mar 7, 9:01 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

66.73%chance

133620

OptionProbability

YES

1102

936

Will there be a global pause on the largest AI training runs at any point before AGI?

May 29, 5:12 PMJan 1, 6:05 PM

42.5%chance

233523

OptionVotes

YES

2153

1456

Will we have near-complete automation of the world economy before 2030?

Aug 7, 6:58 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

17.06%chance

483141

OptionVotes

YES

1025

619

Will an AGI be trained on cheap, accessible hardware before 2040?

Mar 18, 4:15 AMJan 1, 6:59 AM

55%chance

15381

OptionVotes

YES

1106

905

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Will we have near-complete automation of the world economy before 2035?

Are LLMs capable of reaching AGI?

Will AI have a trillion+ dollar impact by the end of 2030?

Will there be more than 100K AI successionists globally by Nov 7, 2028?

In what specific year will we hit AGI?

Will GPT-6 be considered to be AGI?

Who Will Be the First to Reveal Human-Level AGI?

Will GPT-5 make Manifold think very near-term AGI is more likely?

If a definitive genetic study of race and intelligence gets performed, what will the W/B genetic g difference be?

Will there be a global pause on the largest AI training runs at any point before AGI?

Will we have near-complete automation of the world economy before 2030?

Will an AGI be trained on cheap, accessible hardware before 2040?

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