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Prediction markets for Definitive Intelligence

Will we have near-complete automation of the world economy before 2035?

Aug 7, 6:58 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

21%chance

8538513

OptionVotes

NO

YES

987

956

Are LLMs capable of reaching AGI?

Oct 19, 6:00 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

50.77%chance

11636595

OptionVotes

YES

NO

14200

6536

Will AI have a trillion+ dollar impact by the end of 2030?

Oct 29, 12:44 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

96.04%chance

10423559

OptionVotes

NO

YES

10119

734

Who Will Be the First to Reveal Human-Level AGI?

Mar 3, 4:53 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

614993

OptionProbability

Deepmind/Google/Alphabet

OpenAI/Microsoft

Anthropic

xAI or another Elon Musk-led AI initiative

Another specific company (not one of the above or a subsidiary)

A government or coalition of governments

Meta (Facebook) AI Research

A university/academic institute/independent researcher/non-profit organization or a combination of these

37

25

13

9

6

6

3

0

Will GPT-5 make Manifold think very near-term AGI is more likely?

Mar 3, 1:41 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

11.29%chance

464116

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2622

208

If a definitive genetic study of race and intelligence gets performed, what will the W/B genetic g difference be?

Mar 7, 9:01 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

66.73%chance

133620

OptionProbability

NO

YES

1102

936

Will we have near-complete automation of the world economy before 2030?

Aug 7, 6:58 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

9.1%chance

442875

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1175

946

Will there be a global pause on the largest AI training runs at any point before AGI?

May 29, 5:12 PMJan 1, 6:05 PM

19.59%chance

111754

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3053

1487

8. AI a central issue in the 2026 U.S. midterms. Politics get complex, especially regarding job oss [See full title!]

Dec 28, 11:33 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

48.3%chance

171621

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1036

968

If passed, will SB 1047 cover any Open Source model before 2029, not including those of Meta, OpenAI, Anthropic, etc?

Aug 29, 2:46 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

45.35%chance

61165

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1098

911

Will an AGI be trained on cheap, accessible hardware before 2040?

Mar 18, 4:15 AMJan 1, 6:59 AM

56.49%chance

11262

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1139

878

Will humanity achieve AGI before good desktop search?

Nov 19, 8:35 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

58.48%chance

4253

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1187

843

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