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Prediction markets for Definity

Will an AI make a new breakthrough on the hardest math problems, as defined by Epoch AI, by the end of 2027?

Jan 27, 10:23 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

45%chance

4712202

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1106

905

Will someone exploit MNX for all of their money (defined expansively)?

Feb 28, 4:55 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

20.34%chance

122586

OptionVotes

YES

NO

198

51

Which country will be the first to create the first true AGI as defined by Manifold?

Mar 16, 11:17 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

452039

OptionProbability

USA

China

Other

United Kingdom

Australia

France

Japan

India

Russia

66

23

3

2

1

1

1

1

0

Will "The Problem with Defining an "AGI Ban" by Out..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

Sep 20, 10:44 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

20.06%chance

4695

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1062

689

Neuralink the company to define relationship between thought and quantum thought by 2050

Jun 7, 7:07 AMJan 1, 8:07 AM

16.93%chance

13501

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1134

948

In 2028, will I use a chatbot that can win >25% of Turing test games (defined within) where I am the judge?

Mar 9, 7:59 PMJan 1, 6:00 AM

35%chance

10338

OptionVotes

YES

NO

999

995

Which frequency standard will the SI second be defined from, per BIPM, on 01/01/2034?

Aug 1, 10:41 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM

4323

OptionProbability

The cesium 133 F=3 <-> F=4 hyperfine microwave transition (no change)

Any system based on weighted averages of uncertainty or timekeeping contributions

The strontium 87 1S0 <-> 3P0 optical transition

The ytterbium 171 1S0 <-> 3P0 optical transition

Any other optical transition in ions

Any other optical transition in neutral atoms

The thorium 229 metastable nuclear optical transition (any realization)

39

22

12

12

8

5

2

Is the percentage of shots missed from percentage of shots not taken defined?

Mar 6, 10:56 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

49.99%chance

7257

OptionVotes

NO

YES

100

100

Will the fundamental law of Hungary define a human being as either male or female on April 1st 2030?

Apr 12, 7:52 PMApr 1, 12:00 AM

28.82%chance

7211

OptionVotes

YES

NO

157

64

Chrome still pointlessly helps me define basic words like "the" through 2030

May 22, 3:31 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

48.18%chance

8176

OptionVotes

YES

NO

120

98

Will the generation after generation alpha also be defined by a technological rather than political/cultural change?

Jan 30, 4:01 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM

52.94%chance

1077

OptionVotes

NO

YES

170

170

What will the DeFi "Total Value Locked" metric be, as defined by DeFi Llama, on 31st December 2030?

Jan 10, 1:10 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

260

OptionProbability

Between $1t and $5t

Between $500b and $1t

>$10tn

Between $5t and $10t

Between $100b and $500b

< $100bn

54

22

6

6

6

6

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