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Prediction markets for Delivery

Will the Tesla "Model 2" start deliveries before then end of 2025?

Aug 23, 11:35 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

3.4%chance

5024897

OptionVotes

YES

NO

5426

323

Will Tesla offer autonomous vehicle delivery to customers' homes in 2025?

Apr 15, 10:55 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

25%chance

8016179

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1732

577

A plane carrying NVIDIA AI chips for delivery is shot down or crashes under suspicious circumstances by mid 2027

Apr 6, 12:42 AMJun 30, 11:59 PM

8%chance

295455

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3391

295

Delivery Ritalin exists in one year?

Jul 4, 12:30 AMJul 4, 12:29 AM

13.53%chance

41584

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2528

396

Will robotic delivery be here by 2029 at a scale to replace a significant share of UPS drivers?

Aug 9, 1:15 PMDec 31, 7:59 PM

20.08%chance

19644

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1165

940

Will the BLS show growth in delivery truck driver employment through 2029?

May 7, 9:29 PMDec 25, 4:59 AM

52.15%chance

12410

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1104

876

Will the Tesla "Redwood" be available for purchase and delivery by June 30, 2026?

Jan 29, 11:35 PMJul 1, 3:59 AM

35.22%chance

12400

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1233

845

Will Rivian R2 deliveries begin before June 15, 2026?

Mar 8, 4:18 AMJul 1, 3:59 AM

41.39%chance

12298

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1066

892

Will the US military purchase a suborbital point to point delivery capability before 2030?

Dec 10, 8:31 AMDec 31, 3:59 PM

52.67%chance

6239

OptionVotes

YES

NO

129

125

Complaints about delivery vehicles in bike lanes?

Jun 22, 6:24 PMJun 23, 6:10 PM

46.06%chance

3115

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1082

924

When will I be able to order food online and have the delivery agent directly feed it to me on my couch?

Jun 16, 9:21 AMDec 31, 10:21 AM

231

What will the next USB power delivery standard be called?

Aug 2, 7:36 AMAug 3, 3:59 AM

11

OptionProbability

USB Power Delivery Rev. 3.1 (V. 1.2x2)

N/A

USB Power Delivery Rev. 3.1 (V. 1.2.1)

USB Power Delivery Rev. 3.2 (V. 2.1)

USB Power Delivery Rev. 4.0

Other

18

16

16

16

16

16

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