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Prediction markets for DEM

If Trump is elected, will the US still be a liberal democracy at the end of his term? (V-DEM)

Feb 23, 9:36 PMJan 21, 10:59 PM

19.48%chance

20641026

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2111

199

Dems lose California or New York by 2028?

Nov 9, 8:08 AMNov 7, 7:59 AM

4.09%chance

54176

OptionVotes

YES

NO

4842

207

2028 Democratic candidate is "Trump of the Dems"?

Nov 9, 2:43 PMDec 1, 10:59 PM

16.27%chance

543213

OptionVotes

YES

NO

836

88

If Trump puts boots on the ground in Iran, will Dems win the Senate?

Mar 16, 5:30 PMNov 3, 11:59 PM

52.21%chance

141650

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2226

1618

Which Democrats will have a 20.00%+ chance of winning the 2028 Dem president nomination at any point?

Feb 18, 6:58 AMAug 31, 11:59 PM

101255

OptionProbability

AOC

Josh Shapiro

Mark Kelly

Jon Ossoff

Pete Buttigieg

Kamala Harris

JB Pritzker

Andy Beshear

Ro Khanna

Jon Stewart

61

41

35

34

32

30

26

23

7

6

If the Dems win enough seats in the midterms, will Trump be impeached?

Jan 20, 7:03 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

74%chance

12972

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1687

593

Which senate flip is more likely? Dems take TX or OH, or Reps take GA or MI?

Jul 28, 3:27 PMNov 6, 4:25 PM

10495

OptionProbability

Dems flip TX or OH

neither

Reps flip GA or MI

both

45

30

23

2

Podcaster as GoP or Dem presidential candidate by 2033?

Nov 15, 4:48 PMNov 2, 10:59 PM

30.07%chance

4170

OptionVotes

YES

NO

152

66

What will have higher turnout in 2026, the Ohio GOP Governor Primary. Or Ohio Dem Senate Primary?

Mar 23, 2:29 AMMay 5, 11:59 PM

4111

OptionProbability

Ohio DEM Senate Special

Ohio GOP Governor

58

42

Who will Bernie Sanders endorse for president in 2028 dem primary?

Dec 21, 12:19 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

491

OptionProbability

Other

No endorsement before April 30 2028

Ro Khanna

Alexandria Ocasio Cortez

Gavin Newsom

31

26

21

14

9

How democratic will Syria be in 2028, according to V-DEM?

Sep 24, 4:12 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

250

OptionProbability

Electoral Democracy

Electoral Autocracy

Closed Autocracy

Liberal Democracy

27

27

27

19

How democratic will Syria be in 2026, according to V-DEM?

Sep 24, 4:11 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

00

OptionProbability

Liberal Democracy

Electoral Democracy

Electoral Autocracy

Closed Autocracy

25

25

25

25

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