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Prediction markets for Department

Department of Education eliminated by June 2026

Dec 26, 12:22 AMJul 1, 12:00 AM

1.44%chance

4828703

OptionVotes

YES

NO

8278

121

Will the US Department of Education cease to exist during the Trump administration?

Nov 11, 11:36 PMFeb 21, 4:59 AM

7%chance

7821906

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1964

37

If elected, will Donald Trump dismantle the department of education as promised?

Jun 26, 4:34 AMJan 21, 7:59 AM

66.55%chance

497562

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1436

722

Will NASA be folded into the US Department of Transportation?

Oct 21, 2:40 AMJan 1, 2:27 AM

2.55%chance

115324

OptionVotes

YES

NO

6186

162

In Fall 2026, will US computer science departments find their enrollment halved compared to previous years?

Jul 20, 5:16 AMDec 20, 11:59 PM

4.08%chance

224520

OptionVotes

YES

NO

4966

211

Will Trump "Sell Out" Taiwan Under Rubio's State Department

Nov 8, 12:34 AMJan 21, 7:59 AM

34.04%chance

173948

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1392

718

If Trump or other Republican wins in 2024, how many cabinet level departments will be eliminated before the end of 2028?

Jun 18, 12:20 AMJan 1, 6:59 AM

153650

OptionProbability

0

1

2

3

More than 3

53

28

8

7

4

Will the Justice Department win its antitrust suit against Google?

Jan 24, 6:00 PMJun 30, 10:59 PM

15.65%chance

272460

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1820

739

Will the Department of Government Efficiency recommend cancelling SLS before 2029?

Nov 13, 3:33 AMDec 31, 3:59 PM

75.91%chance

152154

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1775

563

Zuck departs Meta before Elon departs SpaceX

Aug 23, 8:28 PMJul 1, 3:59 AM

23.43%chance

201657

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1808

553

Any change to the list of 15 US Government executive departments through mid 2027

Jan 2, 8:12 AMJun 30, 9:59 PM

47.56%chance

8509

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1050

952

Will "Dispatch from Anthropic v. Department of War ..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review?

Mar 27, 2:31 AMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

11.11%chance

2255

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1255

964

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