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Prediction markets for Department

Will the US Department of Education cease to exist during the Trump administration?

Nov 11, 11:36 PMFeb 21, 4:59 AM

7%chance

7821906

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1964

37

If elected, will Donald Trump dismantle the department of education as promised?

Jun 26, 4:34 AMJan 21, 7:59 AM

66.55%chance

497562

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1436

722

Department of Education abolished by July 4, 2026

Nov 21, 7:57 AMJul 4, 12:00 AM

6.17%chance

327216

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3899

256

Will NASA be folded into the US Department of Transportation?

Oct 21, 2:40 AMJan 1, 2:27 AM

3.66%chance

104271

OptionVotes

YES

NO

5133

195

Will Trump "Sell Out" Taiwan Under Rubio's State Department

Nov 8, 12:34 AMJan 21, 7:59 AM

31.84%chance

153913

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1463

683

In Fall 2026, will US computer science departments find their enrollment halved compared to previous years?

Jul 20, 5:16 AMDec 20, 11:59 PM

5.58%chance

213766

OptionVotes

YES

NO

4212

249

If Trump or other Republican wins in 2024, how many cabinet level departments will be eliminated before the end of 2028?

Jun 18, 12:20 AMJan 1, 6:59 AM

153650

OptionProbability

0

1

2

3

More than 3

53

28

8

7

4

Will the Justice Department win its antitrust suit against Google?

Jan 24, 6:00 PMJun 30, 10:59 PM

15.67%chance

262458

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1818

739

Will the Department of Government Efficiency recommend cancelling SLS before 2029?

Nov 13, 3:33 AMDec 31, 3:59 PM

75.91%chance

152154

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1775

563

Zuck departs Meta before Elon departs SpaceX

Aug 23, 8:28 PMJul 1, 3:59 AM

30%chance

181377

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1528

655

Any change to the list of 15 US Government executive departments through mid 2027

Jan 2, 8:12 AMJun 30, 9:59 PM

47.56%chance

8509

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1050

952

Will "Dispatch from Anthropic v. Department of War ..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review?

Mar 27, 2:31 AMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

11.11%chance

2255

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1255

964

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