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Top stories

UK Delays Decision on Chinese ‘Super-Embassy’ in London to October

UK Delays Decision on Chinese ‘Super-Embassy’ in London to October

Authors

10

1 year ago

Prediction markets for Department for Housing

If Dems win the House or Senate in 2026, will officials try to block a working Democratic majority from being seated?

Sep 23, 6:08 AMJan 3, 11:59 PM

15.73%chance

16740693

OptionVotes

YES

NO

24642

5236

Will the US exhibit strong signs of autocracy if Trump wins in 2024?

Aug 28, 4:50 AMJan 21, 7:59 AM

56.6%chance

9413352

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1142

876

Trump orders active duty military to NYC by end of 2026?

Nov 5, 11:13 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

8.83%chance

144938

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3213

311

What will be the first metal Trump officially requests for Project Vault?

May 21, 6:20 PMDec 31, 6:37 PM

94872

OptionProbability

Gallium

Neodymium

Germanium

Antimony

Dysprosium

Terbium

Yttrium

Tantalum

Rhenium

Indium

Tellurium

Samarium

Silver

13

13

12

9

8

7

7

5

5

5

5

5

4

Will Trump pardon Gannon Ken Van Dyke before 2027?

Apr 24, 1:26 AMJan 1, 2:24 AM

8.14%chance

122601

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3360

298

Trump meets Kim Jong Un in 2026?

Aug 20, 4:10 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

18.9%chance

302429

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2071

483

California Exodus: Will California lose inhabitants between 2010 and 2030?

Nov 11, 10:03 AMJan 1, 11:59 PM

25.79%chance

292096

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1778

534

Will the FY2027 NDAA enter law by February 1st 2027, and direct U.S.-Israel military cooperation in AI?

Jun 6, 9:46 PMJan 31, 11:59 PM

61.83%chance

112048

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1138

717

Susie Wiles departs as White House chief of staff in 2026?

Jan 6, 12:52 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

99.05%chance

131666

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1363

52

Will Marco Rubio be the United States Secretary of State on 12/31/2026?

Mar 10, 7:44 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

75.7%chance

271177

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1177

1057

Will the White House announce deportations over 1 million by EOY 2027

Feb 9, 10:48 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

32.79%chance

12669

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1432

698

If Democrats win the House in 2026, will the House impeach a Cabinet member before January 3, 2029?

Oct 7, 2:13 AMJan 3, 5:00 PM

72.99%chance

4127

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1108

957

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