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Top stories

UK Delays Decision on Chinese ‘Super-Embassy’ in London to October

UK Delays Decision on Chinese ‘Super-Embassy’ in London to October

Authors

10

6 months ago

Prediction markets for Department for Housing

Will the United States officially withdraw from NATO by March 31, 2026?

Jan 18, 12:50 PMMar 31, 8:59 PM

1%chance

3619325

OptionVotes

YES

NO

9950

101

US - Iran nuclear deal by end of June?

Feb 3, 3:21 AMJun 30, 11:59 PM

28.59%chance

3113516

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1580

633

Will the US exhibit strong signs of autocracy if Trump wins in 2024?

Aug 28, 4:50 AMJan 21, 7:59 AM

58.08%chance

9013035

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1177

850

DOGE cuts $1T federal deficit by FY 2026?

Feb 4, 6:07 AMOct 1, 6:59 AM

3.19%chance

3710890

OptionVotes

YES

NO

5508

182

California Prop 50 map used in 2026 election?

Nov 14, 7:36 AMOct 1, 10:59 PM

89.86%chance

4510231

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2977

336

Trump orders active duty military to NYC by end of 2026?

Nov 5, 11:13 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

20.77%chance

113603

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1953

512

California Exodus: Will California lose inhabitants between 2010 and 2030?

Nov 11, 10:03 AMJan 1, 11:59 PM

37.58%chance

281696

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1378

717

Will the Supreme Court rule against disparate impact by Dec 31 2026?

May 1, 12:46 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

30.01%chance

91127

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1188

571

Will the US recognize another genocide before 2029?

Jul 2, 3:07 PMFeb 1, 7:59 AM

67.45%chance

16894

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1092

950

Next president to be declared incapacitated by 25th Amendment section 4

Feb 11, 2:56 AMOct 29, 9:18 PM

5303

OptionProbability

Other

Trump

Biden

84

15

1

Susie Wiles departs as White House chief of staff in 2026?

Jan 6, 12:52 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

61.46%chance

7213

OptionVotes

YES

NO

120

48

Will the UK introduce compulsory English lessons for adult migrants receiving public benefits before 2027?

Jul 21, 10:14 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

30%chance

9166

OptionVotes

YES

NO

153

65

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