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Prediction markets for Department for Technology

Will the US government take control of OpenAI or its major technologies before 2030?

Nov 23, 11:29 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

23.41%chance

8720078

OptionVotes

YES

NO

12408

8996

Will a deepfake impersonating a White House official lead to a military incident involving US troops by October 7, 2025?

Apr 10, 11:14 AMOct 7, 11:59 PM

4.59%chance

309991

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2728

222

If Trump wins, will the US AI Safety Institute receive an increase in Congressional appropriations for FY26?

Jun 30, 7:25 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

25.6%chance

141992

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2498

936

Will the US government take control of Anthropic or its major technologies before 2030?

Jun 12, 7:30 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

21.44%chance

131668

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1914

522

Will the Justice Department win its antitrust suit against Google?

Jan 24, 6:00 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

26.92%chance

221358

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1136

916

Will Donald Trump use military force to seize control of Greenland or the Panama Canal?

Jan 8, 12:09 AMDec 31, 3:59 PM

9.87%chance

221221

OptionVotes

YES

NO

302

33

Will I use "just walk out" style grocery stores more often than not in 2030?

Mar 24, 10:49 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

18.77%chance

16500

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1252

898

Will any of the proposals in Elizabeth Warren’s letter to DOGE be implemented by 2030?

Feb 1, 11:35 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

5331

OptionProbability

Miscellaneous Savings Initiatives

Cutting Wasteful Spending at the Department of Defense (DoD)

Cutting Waste, Fraud, and Abuse in Federal Healthcare Programs

Improving Efficiency Across Federal Agencies

Targeting Tax Loopholes and Inefficiencies

55

53

51

50

28

Will there be a fusion reactor generating electricity commercially by the end of 2035?

Dec 4, 1:01 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

52.76%chance

7221

OptionVotes

NO

YES

106

95

Global poverty: Will world life expectancy increase to <5 years of the leading large country's life expectancy by 2050?

Jan 29, 7:39 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

31%chance

7166

OptionVotes

YES

NO

203

148

In which years will the US Congress hold UFO/UAP hearings?

Nov 15, 4:05 PMJan 1, 3:59 AM

472

OptionProbability

2025

2026

2027

2028

80

59

59

45

Setagaya Family Murder Solved by EOY2030?

Jun 22, 4:14 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

45.66%chance

460

OptionVotes

YES

NO

109

92

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