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Prediction markets for Department of Commerce

Will the US enact AI regulation for all Mythos+ models in 2026?

Jun 16, 6:56 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

8.76%chance

2426325

OptionVotes

YES

NO

32266

3099

Will China reinstate or enforce export restrictions on gallium after current suspension expires in Nov?

Dec 26, 5:09 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

35.28%chance

247049

OptionVotes

YES

NO

13556

7388

What will be the first metal Trump officially requests for Project Vault?

May 21, 6:20 PMDec 31, 6:37 PM

74271

OptionProbability

Gallium

Germanium

Neodymium

Antimony

Dysprosium

Terbium

Yttrium

Indium

Tantalum

Rhenium

Tellurium

Samarium

Silver

13

13

13

8

8

7

7

6

5

5

5

5

4

Will Trump tariff European countries over Greenland?

Jan 17, 5:34 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

8.64%chance

291835

OptionVotes

YES

NO

325

31

US Patent System gets a price hike by 2026?

Aug 7, 9:01 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

13.5%chance

71644

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2532

395

Will there be a new census before 2030?

Aug 7, 4:47 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

40%chance

12417

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1225

816

Trump orders mandatory AI predeployment evals by end of August

May 6, 3:24 AMAug 31, 11:59 PM

8.44%chance

11259

OptionVotes

YES

NO

329

30

Will the US enact export controls on energy products in 2026?

Mar 13, 1:47 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

23.9%chance

8192

OptionVotes

YES

NO

142

83

Will the US impose antidumping duties on Russian palladium imports by the end of 2026?

Feb 16, 6:33 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

65.05%chance

394

OptionVotes

NO

YES

100

100

Will the US government force another frontier AI model shutdown for allied users by mid-2027?

Jul 17, 11:52 AMJun 29, 11:59 PM

50%chance

588

OptionVotes

NO

YES

100

100

Will UCAR/NCAR win its lawsuit against the Trump administration/US government?

Mar 17, 5:05 AMDec 31, 6:04 AM

69.23%chance

150

OptionVotes

NO

YES

150

67

Will the US launch a Manhattan Project / Apollo Program for AI safety by EOY 2030?

Jun 21, 10:17 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

40.34%chance

635

OptionVotes

YES

NO

122

82

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