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Prediction markets for Department of Commerce

Will China reinstate or enforce export restrictions on gallium after current suspension expires in Nov?

Dec 26, 5:09 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

35.39%chance

196976

OptionVotes

YES

NO

13522

7406

Will Trump tariff European countries over Greenland?

Jan 17, 5:34 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

8.79%chance

281832

OptionVotes

YES

NO

322

31

Will there be a new census before 2030?

Aug 7, 4:47 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

40%chance

12417

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1225

816

US Patent System gets a price hike by 2026?

Aug 7, 9:01 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

42.31%chance

6268

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1168

856

Will the US enact export controls on energy products in 2026?

Mar 13, 1:47 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

26%chance

7182

OptionVotes

YES

NO

132

86

Will the Defense Production Act be invoked in 2026?

Feb 25, 11:07 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

29.57%chance

7165

OptionVotes

YES

NO

132

83

Trump orders mandatory AI predeployment evals by end of August

May 6, 3:24 AMAug 31, 11:59 PM

24.31%chance

896

OptionVotes

YES

NO

176

57

Will the US impose antidumping duties on Russian palladium imports by the end of 2026?

Feb 16, 6:33 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

74.12%chance

280

OptionVotes

NO

YES

133

86

Will Commerce issue a final affirmative AD determination (A-821-840) by Jun 30, 2026?

Feb 16, 5:48 PMJul 1, 5:48 PM

76.72%chance

273

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1073

977

Will UCAR/NCAR win its lawsuit against the Trump administration/US government?

Mar 17, 5:05 AMDec 31, 6:04 AM

69.23%chance

150

OptionVotes

NO

YES

150

67

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