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Prediction markets for Department of Elections

Will the US exhibit strong signs of autocracy if Trump wins in 2024?

Aug 28, 4:50 AMJan 21, 7:59 AM

51.14%chance

9012803

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1023

978

California Prop 50 map used in 2026 election?

Nov 14, 7:36 AMOct 1, 10:59 PM

83.72%chance

439521

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2267

441

If elected, will Donald Trump dismantle the department of education as promised?

Jun 26, 4:34 AMJan 21, 7:59 AM

68.1%chance

497537

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1461

684

Will Vivek Ramaswamy ever hold an elected government position?

Jan 12, 11:25 PMJan 20, 4:59 AM

77.21%chance

355081

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1841

543

If Trump wins, will the US AI Safety Institute receive an increase in Congressional appropriations for FY26?

Jun 30, 7:25 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

12.57%chance

173792

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3937

616

Elon Musk endorses a Democratic candidate for primary elections in 2026?

Jun 9, 8:22 PMSep 30, 11:59 PM

22.95%chance

303005

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1832

546

Will any head of executive department appointed in the 2025-2029 Administration leave office in 2025?

Nov 10, 10:44 PMJan 1, 5:00 AM

9.89%chance

132668

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3019

331

Trump leaves office over Epstein files?

Nov 13, 11:48 PMJan 19, 11:59 PM

3.27%chance

241698

OptionVotes

YES

NO

544

18

If Trump wins, will he or any member of his cabinet criticize the Constitution by the 2026 midterms?

Mar 10, 11:11 AMNov 4, 7:59 PM

77.12%chance

201243

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1299

868

Trump sends uniformed military to polling stations during 2026 midterm elections?

Dec 12, 1:55 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

29.09%chance

151185

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1561

640

If Trump wins, will the US homicide rate decrease?

Mar 10, 5:05 PMNov 3, 7:59 AM

50.84%chance

20569

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1152

803

2026 Los Angeles City Controller Election

Nov 9, 7:29 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

00

OptionProbability

Kenneth Mejia (incumbent)

Isadore Hall

Other

33

33

33

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