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Prediction markets for Department of Elections

Will the US exhibit strong signs of autocracy if Trump wins in 2024?

Aug 28, 4:50 AMJan 21, 7:59 AM

59.06%chance

9213274

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1201

833

Assembly of Experts hit by US or Israeli attack in 2026 and at least one cleric dies

Mar 2, 4:43 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

6.72%chance

2710998

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3725

268

If elected, will Donald Trump dismantle the department of education as promised?

Jun 26, 4:34 AMJan 21, 7:59 AM

66.55%chance

497562

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1436

722

Will Vivek Ramaswamy ever hold an elected government position?

Jan 12, 11:25 PMJan 20, 4:59 AM

80.33%chance

395970

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2021

495

Elon Musk endorses a Democratic candidate for primary elections in 2026?

Jun 9, 8:22 PMSep 30, 11:59 PM

20.28%chance

334175

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1983

504

Will Pentagon get $200 billion in funds for the Iran War before the 2026 midterms?

Mar 19, 4:50 PMNov 2, 11:59 PM

20.48%chance

111664

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1970

508

Trump sends uniformed military to polling stations during 2026 midterm elections?

Dec 12, 1:55 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

26.27%chance

191582

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1675

597

If Trump wins, will he or any member of his cabinet criticize the Constitution by the 2026 midterms?

Mar 10, 11:11 AMNov 4, 7:59 PM

76.4%chance

201279

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1263

879

If Trump wins, will the US homicide rate decrease?

Mar 10, 5:05 PMNov 3, 7:59 AM

63%chance

251102

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1081

943

Will the next presidential election in Venezuela be free and fair?

Jan 17, 12:52 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

28.05%chance

9490

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1380

807

Will Matt The Welder (Matt Taylor) win the Republican primary for Florida Commissioner of Agriculture?

Apr 27, 2:05 PMAug 19, 11:59 PM

23%chance

4471

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1467

814

Who will win the Democratic Primary for Michigan Senator in 2026?

May 14, 8:23 PMAug 5, 1:00 AM

13384

OptionProbability

Abdul El-Sayed

Haley Stevens

Mallory McMorrow

65

20

15

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