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Prediction markets for Department of Elections

If Dems win the House or Senate in 2026, will officials try to block a working Democratic majority from being seated?

Sep 23, 6:08 AMJan 3, 11:59 PM

15.73%chance

16740693

OptionVotes

YES

NO

24642

5236

Will the US exhibit strong signs of autocracy if Trump wins in 2024?

Aug 28, 4:50 AMJan 21, 7:59 AM

56.6%chance

9413352

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1142

876

Assembly of Experts hit by US or Israeli attack in 2026 and at least one cleric dies

Mar 2, 4:43 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

5.3%chance

2711498

OptionVotes

YES

NO

4225

237

Is Mitch McConnell wife (Elaine Chao) up to no good?

Jul 5, 3:01 AMJul 1, 3:00 AM

5.93%chance

228521

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3981

251

Will Vivek Ramaswamy ever hold an elected government position?

Jan 12, 11:25 PMJan 20, 4:59 AM

34%chance

467997

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1393

718

If elected, will Donald Trump dismantle the department of education as promised?

Jun 26, 4:34 AMJan 21, 7:59 AM

66.01%chance

497579

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1419

731

Trump sends uniformed military to polling stations during 2026 midterm elections?

Dec 12, 1:55 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

4.39%chance

245556

OptionVotes

YES

NO

4666

214

Trump leaves office over Epstein files?

Nov 13, 11:48 PMJan 19, 11:59 PM

6.34%chance

311854

OptionVotes

YES

NO

385

26

Will the next presidential election in Venezuela be free and fair?

Jan 17, 12:52 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

35%chance

10601

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1137

918

If Democrats win the House in 2026, will the House impeach a Cabinet member before January 3, 2029?

Oct 7, 2:13 AMJan 3, 5:00 PM

72.99%chance

4127

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1108

957

Will Democrats win any statewide race in Florida by EOY 2032?

Oct 30, 8:30 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

62.98%chance

260

OptionVotes

NO

YES

130

77

Will Trump/Vance give Ken Paxton a position/title in the federal govt?

Mar 4, 8:03 PMJan 20, 12:00 PM

30.77%chance

150

OptionVotes

YES

NO

150

67

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