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Prediction markets for Department of Elections

Will the US exhibit strong signs of autocracy if Trump wins in 2024?

Aug 28, 4:50 AMJan 21, 7:59 AM

56.6%chance

9413352

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1142

876

Assembly of Experts hit by US or Israeli attack in 2026 and at least one cleric dies

Mar 2, 4:43 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

6.72%chance

2710998

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3725

268

Is Mitch McConnell wife (Elaine Chao) up to no good?

Jul 5, 3:01 AMJul 1, 3:00 AM

5.93%chance

228521

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3981

251

If elected, will Donald Trump dismantle the department of education as promised?

Jun 26, 4:34 AMJan 21, 7:59 AM

66.01%chance

497579

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1419

731

Will Vivek Ramaswamy ever hold an elected government position?

Jan 12, 11:25 PMJan 20, 4:59 AM

80.26%chance

405971

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2017

496

Will San Francisco voters pass the Prop G "reopen the Great Highway" ballot measure in 2026

Jul 23, 6:35 PMNov 4, 6:59 AM

18.98%chance

144633

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2066

484

If Democrats win the House or Senate in 2026, will officials try to block Democratic winners from being seated?

Sep 23, 6:08 AMJan 3, 11:59 PM

39.9%chance

293307

OptionVotes

NO

YES

6397

5150

Will Pentagon get $200 billion in funds for the Iran War before the 2026 midterms?

Mar 19, 4:50 PMNov 2, 11:59 PM

19.89%chance

121854

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2007

498

Trump sends uniformed military to polling stations during 2026 midterm elections?

Dec 12, 1:55 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

26.27%chance

191582

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1675

597

If Trump wins, will he or any member of his cabinet criticize the Constitution by the 2026 midterms?

Mar 10, 11:11 AMNov 4, 7:59 PM

76.4%chance

211281

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1263

879

If Trump wins, will the US homicide rate decrease?

Mar 10, 5:05 PMNov 3, 7:59 AM

65.66%chance

281179

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1159

900

Will the next presidential election in Venezuela be free and fair?

Jan 17, 12:52 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

35%chance

10601

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1137

918

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