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Prediction markets for Department of Elections

Will the United States officially withdraw from NATO by March 31, 2026?

Jan 18, 12:50 PMMar 31, 8:59 PM

1%chance

3619325

OptionVotes

YES

NO

9950

101

Will the US exhibit strong signs of autocracy if Trump wins in 2024?

Aug 28, 4:50 AMJan 21, 7:59 AM

58.08%chance

9013035

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1177

850

California Prop 50 map used in 2026 election?

Nov 14, 7:36 AMOct 1, 10:59 PM

89.86%chance

4510231

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2977

336

If elected, will Donald Trump dismantle the department of education as promised?

Jun 26, 4:34 AMJan 21, 7:59 AM

66.55%chance

497562

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1436

722

Will Vivek Ramaswamy ever hold an elected government position?

Jan 12, 11:25 PMJan 20, 4:59 AM

78.53%chance

365492

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1912

523

Elon Musk endorses a Democratic candidate for primary elections in 2026?

Jun 9, 8:22 PMSep 30, 11:59 PM

20%chance

313855

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2000

500

Trump leaves office over Epstein files?

Nov 13, 11:48 PMJan 19, 11:59 PM

9.4%chance

251768

OptionVotes

YES

NO

310

32

If Trump wins, will he or any member of his cabinet criticize the Constitution by the 2026 midterms?

Mar 10, 11:11 AMNov 4, 7:59 PM

76.4%chance

201279

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1263

879

Trump sends uniformed military to polling stations during 2026 midterm elections?

Dec 12, 1:55 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

27.52%chance

161265

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1623

616

If Trump wins, will the US homicide rate decrease?

Mar 10, 5:05 PMNov 3, 7:59 AM

50.84%chance

20569

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1152

803

Will the next presidential election in Venezuela be free and fair?

Jan 17, 12:52 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

27.9%chance

9484

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1386

804

2026 Los Angeles City Controller Election

Nov 9, 7:29 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

00

OptionProbability

Kenneth Mejia (incumbent)

Isadore Hall

Other

33

33

33

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