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Prediction markets for Department of Housing

Will the US exhibit strong signs of autocracy if Trump wins in 2024?

Aug 28, 4:50 AMJan 21, 7:59 AM

43%chance

8712384

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1151

869

DOGE cuts $1T federal deficit by FY 2026?

Feb 4, 6:07 AMOct 1, 6:59 AM

4.32%chance

3710090

OptionVotes

YES

NO

4708

212

Will a deepfake impersonating a White House official lead to a military incident involving US troops by October 7, 2025?

Apr 10, 11:14 AMOct 7, 11:59 PM

4.59%chance

309991

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2728

222

Will JetBlue announce that it has acquired Spirit Airlines before 2026?

Mar 29, 2:11 AMDec 1, 5:00 PM

4.65%chance

254481

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2114

712

California Exodus: Will California lose inhabitants between 2010 and 2030?

Nov 11, 10:03 AMJan 1, 11:59 PM

38.23%chance

271685

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1331

713

Musk's role at DOGE ruled unconstitutional

Mar 14, 3:00 AMJul 1, 11:59 AM

6.38%chance

231083

OptionVotes

YES

NO

383

26

Will the Supreme Court rule against disparate impact by Dec 31 2026?

May 1, 12:46 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

61.12%chance

7537

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1254

798

Will the US recognize another genocide before 2029?

Jul 2, 3:07 PMFeb 1, 7:59 AM

66.36%chance

14525

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1050

959

Will any head of executive department appointed in the 2025-2029 Administration leave office in 2025?

Nov 10, 10:44 PMJan 1, 5:00 AM

57.38%chance

11511

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1160

862

Next president to be declared incapacitated by 25th Amendment section 4

Feb 11, 2:56 AMOct 29, 9:18 PM

5303

OptionProbability

Other

Trump

Biden

84

15

1

Will the US government distribute free cryptocurrency to citizens before January 20, 2029?

Feb 20, 7:00 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

15.11%chance

9237

OptionVotes

YES

NO

237

42

Harvard’s frozen funds restored before September?

Jul 22, 10:33 PMAug 31, 11:59 PM

36.79%chance

561

OptionVotes

YES

NO

131

76

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