Department of Licensing News

Will the US enact AI regulation for all Mythos+ models in 2026?

Jun 16, 6:56 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

13.7%chance

3134762

OptionVotes

YES

25099

3984

Will China reinstate or enforce export restrictions on gallium after current suspension expires in Nov?

Dec 26, 5:09 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

30.63%chance

3315534

OptionVotes

YES

15062

6649

Will the US exhibit strong signs of autocracy if Trump wins in 2024?

Aug 28, 4:50 AMJan 21, 7:59 AM

56.6%chance

9413352

OptionVotes

YES

1142

876

Will any of the proposals in Elizabeth Warren’s letter to DOGE be implemented by 2030?

Feb 1, 11:35 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

5331

OptionProbability

Miscellaneous Savings Initiatives

Cutting Wasteful Spending at the Department of Defense (DoD)

Cutting Waste, Fraud, and Abuse in Federal Healthcare Programs

Improving Efficiency Across Federal Agencies

Targeting Tax Loopholes and Inefficiencies

USA and Russia back to bilateral trading in 2026?

Jan 6, 11:09 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

27.48%chance

7231

OptionVotes

YES

163

Will Commerce impose model-level export controls on a second AI company before 2027?

Aug 18, 3:44 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

37.1%chance

575

OptionVotes

YES

130

Will the state of New Mexico launch its medical psilocybin program before April 20, 2027?

Jan 1, 4:53 PMApr 21, 11:59 PM

45.59%chance

455

OptionVotes

YES

109

Will all type of vaccines be abolished during the second Trump administration?

Sep 16, 5:52 AMJan 20, 7:30 AM

3.28%chance

252

OptionVotes

YES

152

Department of Licensing News

Prediction markets for Department of Licensing

Prediction markets for Department of Licensing

Prediction markets for Department of Licensing

Will the US enact AI regulation for all Mythos+ models in 2026?

Will China reinstate or enforce export restrictions on gallium after current suspension expires in Nov?

Will the US exhibit strong signs of autocracy if Trump wins in 2024?

Will any of the proposals in Elizabeth Warren’s letter to DOGE be implemented by 2030?

USA and Russia back to bilateral trading in 2026?

Will Commerce impose model-level export controls on a second AI company before 2027?

Will the state of New Mexico launch its medical psilocybin program before April 20, 2027?

Will all type of vaccines be abolished during the second Trump administration?

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