OptionProbability
Not in 2025
Yes, by Executive action from August until the end of 2025
Yes, by Congressional legislation in 2025
Yes, by Executive action before August 2025
99
1
0
RFK Jr. gets cabinet position or position in any public health department
J6er pardoned
Sports team invited to the white house
A member of Congress is censured or expelled
Mass Deportations
The democrats take control of the house of representatives
Any vaccines banned for any group of people
A major insider trading scandal linked to the US executive branch
Prohibiting or restricting transgender care for adults
Trump is impeached
Joe Exotic is released from prison
350 million people or more die, according to expert estimates
US punitive expedition in Mexico
Drone strike in Mexico by US
AGI achieved
Starlink satellites damaged by US adversary
Nuclear weapon detonation
100k humanoid robots manufactured
Significant Rogue AI Incident
China invades Taiwan
It ends with JD Vance becoming president
Coup attempt in the United States
Any part of Greenland becomes de facto US territory (excludes military bases)
A human walks on the Moon
Room temperature superconductor discovered
Flag desecration prohibition passed
Elon Musk is arrested for treason
US military intervention on Canadian territory
Supreme Court packing
The Senate eliminates the filibuster
Donald Trump reelected President
Tulsi Gabbard is arrested for treason
Eagles three-peat
22nd amendment repealed or interpreted to only apply to consecutive terms
Largest solar flare since Carrington Event
End Russo-Ukranian war in 90 days
100
86
85
80
73
69
56
41
38
37
36
31
30
26
25
22
17
14
11
10
9
7
6
5
3
2
OptionVotes
YES
NO
1025
976
516
152
1068
937