Derive News

Derivatives markets: Will Scott Alexander's "2028 AI movie market" be above 50% on Jan 1 in each year?

Oct 24, 1:00 AMJan 2, 4:59 AM

1724672

OptionProbability

2029

2028

2027

2026

2024

2025

When will we know that COVID-19 came from a laboratory? [Unlinked Multiple Choice Derivative of Existing Market]

Nov 24, 10:12 PMOct 4, 6:59 AM

3510464

OptionProbability

By January 2080

[The original market resolves NO before January 2080]

By January 2040

[The original market resolves NO before January 2030]

By January 2035

By January 2030

By January 2026

[All open months are continuously over 90% for at least 7 days because of new information linked in the comments, before January 2026]

[The original market resolves N/A and remains N/A for at least a year, before January 2026]

By January 2024

By March 2024

By July 2024

By January 2025

By July 2025

Will the number of published papers on LK-99 or similar derivatives exceed 300 before 2027?

Aug 2, 7:44 PMJan 2, 5:59 AM

2.14%chance

205877

OptionVotes

YES

4986

540

A publicly-traded Google competitor's search-derived revenue exceeds Google's search-derived revenue for four consecutive quarters before 2028.

Oct 1, 2:25 AMDec 31, 4:01 PM

18.94%chance

505679

OptionVotes

YES

1425

852

Will hemp-derived CBN sleep products still be federally legal as “hemp” on Nov 12, 2026?

Nov 13, 4:55 AMNov 12, 4:47 AM

22.58%chance

61644

OptionVotes

YES

1852

540

When will it be possible to order a drink with "precision fermentation" derived "milk" at Starbucks?

Jul 2, 12:15 AMFeb 1, 7:59 AM

131566

OptionProbability

before the end of 2030

before the end of 2029

before the end of 2028

before the end of 2027

before the end of 2026

before the end of 2024

before the end of 2025

Intoxicating hemp-derived THC products federally banned in U.S. by end of 2026?

Nov 13, 5:15 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

73.23%chance

81367

OptionVotes

YES

1654

605

Before 2029, will OpenAI derive less than 25% of revenue from token-priced API access?

Jun 5, 2:48 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

23.54%chance

41055

OptionVotes

YES

1802

555

Under US law, does dynamic linking against a library create a derivative work?

May 31, 12:54 AMJan 2, 1:47 AM

30.53%chance

7603

OptionVotes

YES

1509

663

A startup in a programming language derived from homotopy type theory raises $10M by 2030

May 16, 6:57 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

24.58%chance

17528

OptionVotes

YES

1282

880

Will the CFTC ban derivative bets on US elections by the end of 2026?

Jan 6, 4:34 PMDec 31, 4:33 PM

14.71%chance

6241

OptionVotes

YES

241

Theories equivalent with theory of everything all derivable from it, and it derivable from them all?

Oct 19, 10:12 PMOct 15, 10:06 PM

33.47%chance

141

OptionVotes

YES

141

Derive News

Prediction markets for Derive

Prediction markets for Derive

Prediction markets for Derive

Derivatives markets: Will Scott Alexander's "2028 AI movie market" be above 50% on Jan 1 in each year?

When will we know that COVID-19 came from a laboratory? [Unlinked Multiple Choice Derivative of Existing Market]

Will the number of published papers on LK-99 or similar derivatives exceed 300 before 2027?

A publicly-traded Google competitor's search-derived revenue exceeds Google's search-derived revenue for four consecutive quarters before 2028.

Will hemp-derived CBN sleep products still be federally legal as “hemp” on Nov 12, 2026?

When will it be possible to order a drink with "precision fermentation" derived "milk" at Starbucks?

Intoxicating hemp-derived THC products federally banned in U.S. by end of 2026?

Before 2029, will OpenAI derive less than 25% of revenue from token-priced API access?

Under US law, does dynamic linking against a library create a derivative work?

A startup in a programming language derived from homotopy type theory raises $10M by 2030

Will the CFTC ban derivative bets on US elections by the end of 2026?

Theories equivalent with theory of everything all derivable from it, and it derivable from them all?

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