OptionProbability
China sanctioned by US + Europe
Taiwan blockaded before invasion
CCP in power in 2050 [IF DON'T INVADE]
Oil shortages in South Korea or Japan
CCP in power in 2050 [IF INVADE]
Japan attacked by Chinese
Japan allows use of airbases
Malacca Strait blockaded
Guam attacked by Chinese
Oil shortages in China
US destroys TSMC factories
Taiwan surrenders
Food shortages in China
China attacks Japan
Japanese military intervention
Malacca Strait blockaded > 1 month
US military intervention
Philippines attacked by Chinese
US combat troops in Taiwan
US aircraft carrier sunk
Philippines allows use of airbases
South Korea allows use of airbases
South Korean military intervention
Malacca Strait blockaded > 12 months
Chinese mainland bombed
Chinese warships sunk by US submarine
Peaceful unification by 2050 [IF DON'T INVADE]
European military intervention
Indian military intervention
Chinese warships sunk by US airforce
China attacks South Korea
Tactical nuclear weapon used
Nuclear weapon used against civilians
78
77
70
67
61
60
56
54
52
51
49
48
47
45
42
40
39
38
37
36
35
34
33
12
10
OptionVotes
YES
NO
7044
720
996
983
1146
904
1235
918
1236
906
117
85