OptionProbability
China sanctioned by US + Europe
Taiwan blockaded before invasion
Japan allows use of airbases
CCP in power in 2050 [IF DON'T INVADE]
Oil shortages in South Korea or Japan
CCP in power in 2050 [IF INVADE]
Japan attacked by Chinese
China attacks Japan
Malacca Strait blockaded
Guam attacked by Chinese
Oil shortages in China
US destroys TSMC factories
US military intervention
Japanese military intervention
Taiwan surrenders
Malacca Strait blockaded > 1 month
Philippines allows use of airbases
Philippines attacked by Chinese
US combat troops in Taiwan
US aircraft carrier sunk
Chinese mainland bombed
Chinese warships sunk by US airforce
Food shortages in China
South Korea allows use of airbases
South Korean military intervention
Chinese warships sunk by US submarine
European military intervention
Indian military intervention
China attacks South Korea
Malacca Strait blockaded > 12 months
Peaceful unification by 2050 [IF DON'T INVADE]
Tactical nuclear weapon used
Nuclear weapon used against civilians
78
75
69
67
61
60
55
54
52
51
50
49
47
42
41
40
39
38
37
35
33
31
30
12
10
OptionVotes
NO
YES
1067
932
1146
904
127
