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Prediction markets for Design

By 2028, will AI be able to make a full animated movie with consistent plot, design and characters with no input besides the original prompt?

Dec 2, 5:23 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

58.56%chance

18677553

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2497

1461

Will Anthropic escape the "supply chain risk" designation by EOY 2026?

Feb 27, 11:38 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

80.08%chance

22850019

OptionVotes

NO

YES

15809

7952

MANA MERCH SHOP: Which designs will be added to the mana merch store?

Oct 22, 8:28 PMJul 4, 8:40 PM

9040023

OptionProbability

The Manifold Logo

Crane Hexes - by Pat Scott

“Anti gambling gambling club” - by andri

Trustworthy-ish - by Pat Scott

“Put your Mana where your mouth is” - by MIMIR MAGNVS

“This meeting could have been a market” - by andri

“Calibrated measures” - by andri

“my waifu / predicts the future" - Pat Scott

“ I just lost mana because of that” - by andri

“It’s not 🤮crypto🤮 it’s play money” - by andri

95

91

90

83

66

62

44

41

38

16

Will net demand for graphic designers fall by 50% or more by 2025?

Aug 10, 1:31 AMSep 1, 3:59 AM

5%chance

12828388

OptionVotes

YES

NO

7285

1681

Is Rosie the dog's AI-designed mRNA cancer vaccine legitimate?

Mar 14, 8:19 PMDec 31, 8:12 PM

54.86%chance

16817569

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1102

907

Will 5%+ of writers and designers lose their jobs by 2025?

May 12, 9:26 AMApr 1, 3:59 PM

10.64%chance

486482

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3584

468

By 2030, will an AI be officially designated as the patent holder for an invention?

May 19, 6:49 PMDec 31, 6:29 AM

24.14%chance

551295

OptionVotes

YES

NO

999

985

Will 𝕏 change its logo design to a new (permanent) one before 2027 ?

Jan 23, 12:38 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

50.6%chance

27732

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1263

654

Will we be able to sell the manifest dragon shirt designed by @etirabys in the manifold merch store?

Jan 26, 7:57 PMDec 31, 7:56 PM

63.4%chance

7710

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1316

760

Will a quantum money that can support a long-term galactic civilization be designed before 2035?

Jul 23, 4:19 AMJan 1, 8:00 AM

22.38%chance

12497

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1024

979

By 2030, will an architectural firm design and construct a building based entirely on specifications generated by AI?

May 19, 3:37 PMJan 1, 6:29 AM

62.04%chance

19362

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1010

954

Will "We need a field of Reward Function Design" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

Dec 10, 5:42 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

14%chance

00

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1000

1000

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