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Prediction markets for Design

By 2028, will AI be able to make a full animated movie with consistent plot, design and characters with no input besides the original prompt?

Dec 2, 5:23 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

53.48%chance

18377199

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2274

1635

MANA MERCH SHOP: Which designs will be added to the mana merch store?

Oct 22, 8:28 PMDec 10, 7:40 PM

8233172

OptionProbability

The Manifold Logo

“Anti gambling gambling club” - by andri

Trustworthy-ish - by Pat Scott

Crane Hexes - by Pat Scott

“Put your Mana where your mouth is” - by MIMIR MAGNVS

“This meeting could have been a market” - by andri

“my waifu / predicts the future" - Pat Scott

“Calibrated measures” - by andri

“ I just lost mana because of that” - by andri

“It’s not 🤮crypto🤮 it’s play money” - by andri

98

77

76

67

66

62

46

44

43

15

Will net demand for graphic designers fall by 50% or more by 2025?

Aug 10, 1:31 AMSep 1, 3:59 AM

3.44%chance

12227376

OptionVotes

YES

NO

10020

1563

Will a drug designed with significant contribution from an AlphaFold-like system pass a Phase I trial by end of 2025?

Sep 6, 3:00 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

45.68%chance

6011583

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1090

917

Will anyone find a major bug, error, or design flaw in the new /create UI?

Nov 18, 3:58 PMDec 19, 6:33 AM

93.66%chance

298321

OptionVotes

NO

YES

8292

813

Will 5%+ of writers and designers lose their jobs by 2025?

May 12, 9:26 AMApr 1, 3:59 PM

37.33%chance

423128

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1544

1008

By 2030, will an AI be officially designated as the patent holder for an invention?

May 19, 6:49 PMDec 31, 6:29 AM

24.14%chance

551295

OptionVotes

YES

NO

999

985

Will 𝕏 change its logo design to a new (permanent) one before 2027 ?

Jan 23, 12:38 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

53.6%chance

27682

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1191

695

Will a quantum money that can support a long-term galactic civilization be designed before 2035?

Jul 23, 4:19 AMJan 1, 8:00 AM

22.38%chance

12497

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1024

979

Will an AI system design a pathogen which leads WHO to declare an emergency of some sort by the end of the July, 2030?

Jul 31, 7:50 AMJul 31, 1:29 AM

20.91%chance

27415

OptionVotes

YES

NO

997

985

By 2030, will an architectural firm design and construct a building based entirely on specifications generated by AI?

May 19, 3:37 PMJan 1, 6:29 AM

62.04%chance

19362

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1010

954

Most popular kids curtain design theme in Abu Dhabi stores

Jan 17, 9:10 AMDec 31, 12:00 AM

00

OptionProbability

Other

50

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