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Prediction markets for Design

By 2028, will AI be able to make a full animated movie with consistent plot, design and characters with no input besides the original prompt?

Dec 2, 5:23 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

57.32%chance

18677710

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2440

1502

MANA MERCH SHOP: Which designs will be added to the mana merch store?

Oct 22, 8:28 PMDec 4, 7:40 PM

10255149

OptionProbability

The Manifold Logo

“Anti gambling gambling club” - by andri

Trustworthy-ish - by Pat Scott

"The Lootbox Lies" - Pat Scott

“Put your Mana where your mouth is” - by MIMIR MAGNVS

Cranes In Form - by Pat Scott

“This meeting could have been a market” - by andri

“Calibrated measures” - by andri

“ I just lost mana because of that” - by andri

“my waifu / predicts the future" - Pat Scott

“It’s not 🤮crypto🤮 it’s play money” - by andri

100

100

65

65

64

64

43

31

26

21

7

Is Rosie the dog's AI-designed mRNA cancer vaccine legitimate?

Mar 14, 8:19 PMDec 31, 8:12 PM

32.86%chance

18220234

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1429

700

Will 𝕏 change its logo design to a new (permanent) one before 2027 ?

Jan 23, 12:38 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

7.71%chance

323651

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2930

124

By 2030, will an AI be officially designated as the patent holder for an invention?

May 19, 6:49 PMDec 31, 6:29 AM

24.14%chance

551295

OptionVotes

YES

NO

999

985

Is 1,000 atoms ever sufficient for the experience of suffering, under any design or any circumstance? (Upgradable KBC, resolves in 2025)

Feb 6, 3:45 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

13.6%chance

231084

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1745

806

Will we be able to sell the manifest dragon shirt designed by @etirabys in the manifold merch store?

Jan 26, 7:57 PMDec 31, 7:56 PM

65.95%chance

7751

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1392

719

Will most of the first 100 IQ-selected "designer babies" be born in China?

Jun 23, 1:13 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

37.64%chance

25507

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1132

907

Will a quantum money that can support a long-term galactic civilization be designed before 2035?

Jul 23, 4:19 AMJan 1, 8:00 AM

22.23%chance

13504

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1031

977

Will an AI system design a pathogen which leads WHO to declare an emergency of some sort by the end of the July, 2030?

Jul 31, 7:50 AMJul 31, 1:29 AM

20.91%chance

27415

OptionVotes

YES

NO

997

985

By 2030, will an architectural firm design and construct a building based entirely on specifications generated by AI?

May 19, 3:37 PMJan 1, 6:29 AM

62.04%chance

19362

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1010

954

Will "We need a field of Reward Function Design" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

Dec 10, 5:42 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

14%chance

00

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1000

1000

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