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Prediction markets for Design

By 2028, will AI be able to make a full animated movie with consistent plot, design and characters with no input besides the original prompt?

Dec 2, 5:23 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

53.92%chance

18076997

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2292

1619

Will net demand for graphic designers fall by 50% or more by 2025?

Aug 10, 1:31 AMSep 1, 3:59 AM

15.29%chance

9117542

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2670

2113

Will a drug designed with significant contribution from an AlphaFold-like system pass a Phase I trial by end of 2025?

Sep 6, 3:00 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

20.67%chance

569741

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1959

510

Will 5%+ of writers and designers lose their jobs by 2025?

May 12, 9:26 AMApr 1, 3:59 PM

42%chance

422978

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1394

1107

Will an OpenAI model design an improved version of an existing drug in 2025?

Jan 19, 7:23 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

18.31%chance

232010

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2112

473

By 2030, will an AI be officially designated as the patent holder for an invention?

May 19, 6:49 PMDec 31, 6:29 AM

24.14%chance

551295

OptionVotes

YES

NO

999

985

Is 1,000 atoms ever sufficient for the experience of suffering, under any design or any circumstance? (Upgradable KBC, resolves in 2025)

Feb 6, 3:45 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

14.07%chance

231034

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1695

814

Will 𝕏 change its logo design to a new (permanent) one before 2027 ?

Jan 23, 12:38 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

57.08%chance

26627

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1136

763

Will a quantum money that can support a long-term galactic civilization be designed before 2035?

Jul 23, 4:19 AMJan 1, 8:00 AM

22.38%chance

12497

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1024

979

Will an AI system design a pathogen which leads WHO to declare an emergency of some sort by the end of the July, 2030?

Jul 31, 7:50 AMJul 31, 1:29 AM

20.51%chance

26410

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1017

980

By 2030, will an architectural firm design and construct a building based entirely on specifications generated by AI?

May 19, 3:37 PMJan 1, 6:29 AM

62.04%chance

19362

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1010

954

Most popular kids curtain design theme in Abu Dhabi stores

Jan 17, 9:10 AMDec 31, 12:00 AM

00

OptionProbability

Other

50

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