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Prediction markets for Designer Brands

Will GiveWell fund Sayana® Press by 1st January 2027?

Dec 17, 4:49 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

82.09%chance

2016004

OptionVotes

NO

YES

9006

1009

When will the Tesla Cybertruck product line be discontinued?

Jan 17, 10:57 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

2210638

OptionProbability

2027

2026

2028-2030

2031 or later

Before July 2025

July thru Dec 2025

82

7

6

4

1

1

Kimi K4 released in 2026?

Jul 25, 12:32 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

9%chance

158573

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3180

314

Will there be an AI smartphone brought to market by 2027?

Mar 24, 8:43 AMJan 1, 5:59 AM

79.95%chance

25490

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1289

892

When will the LAX People Mover Open (extended)

Oct 19, 3:39 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

4357

OptionProbability

Before January 2029

Before October 2028

Before July 2028

Before April 2028

Before January 2028

Before October 2027

Before July 2027

Before April 2027

75

73

69

56

54

46

45

39

Will a new Toyota Celica or MR2 be announced first or at the same time?

Sep 1, 7:46 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM

293

OptionProbability

New Celica announced first

New MR2 announced first

Both announced at the same time

Neither will be announced by 2030

53

23

18

6

Will ManifestxDC inspire additional Manifestx events ?

Nov 9, 7:29 AMDec 31, 3:57 PM

69.23%chance

250

OptionVotes

NO

YES

150

67

Will the next original Paper Mario game use the “classic” RPG formula of Paper Mario 64 / The Thousand-Year Door?

Jul 7, 9:35 AMJul 7, 9:29 AM

40.57%chance

639

OptionVotes

YES

NO

121

83

After the acquisition of Teka group by chinese Midea, will they close the production site of Teka sinks in spain?

Oct 22, 8:33 PMDec 31, 9:26 PM

39.79%chance

123

OptionVotes

YES

NO

123

81

Is Jose Luis Ricon FUNNIER than JOSCHA BACH, jose luis ricon, razib khan, @repligate/janus , alexey guzey, qiaochu yuan?

May 2, 4:30 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

40.19%chance

122

OptionVotes

YES

NO

122

82

Will Metrolink operate a Holiday Express service in 2027?

Nov 1, 5:27 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

60%chance

00

OptionVotes

NO

YES

100

100

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