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Prediction markets for Designer Brands

When will the Tesla Cybertruck product line be discontinued?

Jan 17, 10:57 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

168360

OptionProbability

2026

2031 or later

2027

2028-2030

Before July 2025

July thru Dec 2025

31

26

24

18

1

1

Will GiveWell fund Sayana® Press by 1st January 2027?

Dec 17, 4:49 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

15.58%chance

156839

OptionVotes

YES

NO

8427

3028

Will Fable 5 be reenabled for Everyone at the same time?

Jun 22, 6:25 PMDec 31, 7:24 PM

38%chance

22515

OptionVotes

YES

NO

128

78

Will there be an AI smartphone brought to market by 2027?

Mar 24, 8:43 AMJan 1, 5:59 AM

79.88%chance

25480

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1285

893

Is Anthropic woke?

Feb 26, 1:34 AMJul 1, 4:59 AM

83.78%chance

9462

OptionVotes

NO

YES

227

44

AUM of all prediction market ETFs by end of August 2026

Apr 29, 1:07 AMApr 29, 3:59 AM

4400

OptionProbability

500M - 999.9M

100M - 499.9M

0 - 99.9M

1B - 4.99B

5B - 10B

Above 10B

38

27

17

6

6

6

Will OpenAI release a model marketed as GPT-6 by August 31, 2026?

Apr 29, 9:35 AMAug 31, 10:00 PM

23%chance

676

OptionVotes

YES

NO

147

81

Will ManifestxDC inspire additional Manifestx events ?

Nov 9, 7:29 AMDec 31, 3:57 PM

69.23%chance

250

OptionVotes

NO

YES

150

67

Will the next original Paper Mario game use the “classic” RPG formula of Paper Mario 64 / The Thousand-Year Door?

Jul 7, 9:35 AMJul 7, 9:29 AM

40.57%chance

639

OptionVotes

YES

NO

121

83

Is Jose Luis Ricon FUNNIER than JOSCHA BACH, jose luis ricon, razib khan, @repligate/janus , alexey guzey, qiaochu yuan?

May 2, 4:30 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

40.19%chance

122

OptionVotes

YES

NO

122

82

After the acquisition of Teka group by chinese Midea, will they close the production site of Teka sinks in spain?

Oct 22, 8:33 PMDec 31, 9:26 PM

50%chance

00

OptionVotes

NO

YES

100

100

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