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Detection News

Will we detect extraterrestrial intelligent life in the universe by 2124?

Nov 14, 8:26 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

42.01%chance

847312

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1171

658

Will gmail or outlook have a "persuasion detection system" built into their email services by 2025 end?

Apr 23, 12:36 PMDec 31, 6:29 PM

17%chance

674019

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1943

1128

Will a Pulsar Timing Array experiment detect gravitational waves from a resolvable point source before the year 2030?

Sep 5, 5:44 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

52.23%chance

151487

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1092

1069

AI honesty #3: by 2027 will we have interpretability tools for detecting when an AI is being deceptive?

Oct 13, 3:58 PMJan 1, 8:00 AM

47.78%chance

171484

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1234

591

By 2030, will there be an bottom-up trained AI/bot in Runescape that reaches Combat Level 50 (bypassing Runescape's natural bot-detection algorithms)?

Jan 1, 7:36 AMJan 1, 4:01 PM

71.03%chance

451249

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1266

814

By the end of 2035, will real working lie detection exist?

Dec 18, 3:11 AMDec 30, 12:59 PM

47.92%chance

201038

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1042

959

Will humanity detect evidence of an extraterrestrial intelligence before the year 2100?

Aug 18, 11:57 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

33.37%chance

26881

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1046

881

Will True Detective Season 5 be released before The Winds of Winter? (George R. R. Martin's next Game of Thrones Book)

Jan 17, 2:15 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

70.67%chance

17499

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1159

920

Does the GDPR Ban Ad Fraud Detection?

Jan 17, 5:54 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

31.02%chance

20488

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1082

941

Will we successfully deploy our own Von Neumann probes before we detect foreign Von Neumann probes?

Jan 29, 2:28 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

81.29%chance

20449

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1212

919

Will ESA’s Laser Interferometer Space Antenna (LISA) mission to detect gravitational waves launch in 2035 as planned?

Jan 28, 10:16 PMDec 31, 8:59 PM

38%chance

18447

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1089

935

Will the first detected BSM particle's mass be above 1 GeV?

Jun 5, 2:19 AMJan 2, 6:59 AM

66.35%chance

12181

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1095

941

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