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Prediction markets for Detection

Will we detect extraterrestrial intelligent life in the universe by 2124?

Nov 14, 8:26 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

40.93%chance

847427

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1157

679

Will photo/video "AI detection" meaningfully exist in December 2028?

Dec 1, 2:07 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

24.88%chance

333475

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1738

576

AI honesty #3: by 2027 will we have interpretability tools for detecting when an AI is being deceptive?

Oct 13, 3:58 PMJan 1, 8:00 AM

59.25%chance

211799

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1421

428

Will a Pulsar Timing Array experiment detect gravitational waves from a resolvable point source before the year 2030?

Sep 5, 5:44 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

52.27%chance

181608

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1091

1070

Will manifold introduce LLM-based spam detection by EOY 2026?

Feb 17, 2:03 PMDec 30, 11:59 PM

24.99%chance

131159

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1733

577

By the end of 2035, will real working lie detection exist?

Dec 18, 3:11 AMDec 30, 12:59 PM

47.92%chance

201038

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1042

959

Will humanity detect evidence of an extraterrestrial intelligence before the year 2100?

Aug 18, 11:57 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

31.23%chance

30947

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1016

944

Will Tomonori Totoni's claim of dark matter detection be broadly accepted before 2030?

Nov 27, 7:28 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

21.64%chance

4903

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1903

525

Will True Detective Season 5 be released before The Winds of Winter? (George R. R. Martin's next Game of Thrones Book)

Jan 17, 2:15 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

70.67%chance

17499

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1159

920

Does the GDPR Ban Ad Fraud Detection?

Jan 17, 5:54 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

31.02%chance

20488

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1082

941

Will we successfully deploy our own Von Neumann probes before we detect foreign Von Neumann probes?

Jan 29, 2:28 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

81.29%chance

20449

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1212

919

Will the first detected BSM particle's mass be above 1 GeV?

Jun 5, 2:19 AMJan 2, 6:59 AM

66.35%chance

12181

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1095

941

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