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Prediction markets for Detection

Will we detect extraterrestrial intelligent life in the universe by 2124?

Nov 14, 8:26 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

40.93%chance

847427

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1157

679

Will photo/video "AI detection" meaningfully exist in December 2028?

Dec 1, 2:07 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

28.31%chance

343656

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1591

628

AI honesty #3: by 2027 will we have interpretability tools for detecting when an AI is being deceptive?

Oct 13, 3:58 PMJan 1, 8:00 AM

56.88%chance

221829

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1380

458

Will a Pulsar Timing Array experiment detect gravitational waves from a resolvable point source before the year 2030?

Sep 5, 5:44 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

52.27%chance

181608

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1091

1070

Will manifold introduce LLM-based spam detection by EOY 2026?

Feb 17, 2:03 PMDec 30, 11:59 PM

24.99%chance

131159

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1733

577

By the end of 2035, will real working lie detection exist?

Dec 18, 3:11 AMDec 30, 12:59 PM

47.92%chance

201038

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1042

959

Will humanity detect evidence of an extraterrestrial intelligence before the year 2100?

Aug 18, 11:57 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

34.81%chance

311029

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1066

843

Did the LZ detect a WIMP

Sep 2, 3:18 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

33.75%chance

5689

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1401

714

Does the GDPR Ban Ad Fraud Detection?

Jan 17, 5:54 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

28.23%chance

21611

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1182

899

Will True Detective Season 5 be released before The Winds of Winter? (George R. R. Martin's next Game of Thrones Book)

Jan 17, 2:15 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

70.67%chance

17499

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1159

920

Will the first detected BSM particle's mass be above 1 GeV?

Jun 5, 2:19 AMJan 2, 6:59 AM

66.35%chance

12181

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1095

941

Will my tabletop detective game sell 30+ copies before December?

Sep 1, 5:35 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

53.65%chance

221

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1008

993

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