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Prediction markets for Developer

Will a reliable and general household robot be developed before January 1st, 2030?

Apr 27, 7:21 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

50.93%chance

658577178

OptionVotes

NO

YES

16062

8657

Will we develop Leopold's 'drop-in remote AI workers' by end of 2027?

Jun 10, 7:37 PMDec 25, 4:59 AM

61.39%chance

253131777

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1262

794

Will AIs be widely recognized as having developed a new, innovative, foundational mathematical theory before 2030?

Jul 24, 7:30 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

31.06%chance

10825367

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1791

1279

Will at least 25 nations collaborate to develop and enforce unified AI development standards internationally by 2035?

Jan 14, 1:10 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

78.44%chance

7412334

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1927

1123

The FDA will approve an AI developed cure before the end of the decade (<2030) for a previously incurable major illness.

Dec 21, 5:45 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

54.67%chance

1139573

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1912

1573

Will Metr find AI reduces developer productivity in their second study?

Jan 2, 3:19 AMJan 1, 5:59 AM

14.93%chance

419385

OptionVotes

YES

NO

9560

1614

Will World Model AIs start being used in games in early 2026 and quickly start dominating the Game Development industry?

Aug 5, 8:43 PMAug 31, 11:59 PM

7%chance

249219

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3645

274

Chat-style AI models will be a big part of 10% or more of workers's workflows in developed nations by 2027

Feb 2, 3:09 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

71.07%chance

1298015

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1846

1470

Will a therapy that substantially slows down or reverses the aging process in humans be developed before 2040?

Mar 17, 12:49 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

61.92%chance

266710

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1251

784

Will Sam Altman become more cautious about AGI/ASI development after having a child?

Nov 9, 2:29 PMJul 31, 9:59 PM

49.22%chance

243307

OptionVotes

YES

NO

10581

9400

Will the US Gini index measured by the OECD go above 0.43 before the end of 2028, potentially due to AI developments ?

Dec 27, 4:20 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

55%chance

11274

OptionVotes

NO

YES

242

126

What will happen with Cursed Crew's development?

Jun 25, 4:29 PMJan 1, 5:59 AM

00

OptionProbability

Curse update released in 2025

Game is cancelled 😢

Game leaves early access in 2025

Game leaves early access in 2026

Game gets 1,000 Steam reviews before 2027

50

50

50

50

50

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