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Prediction markets for Developer

Will a reliable and general household robot be developed before January 1st, 2030?

Apr 27, 7:21 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

53.49%chance

686650747

OptionVotes

NO

YES

16665

8104

Will we develop Leopold's 'drop-in remote AI workers' by end of 2027?

Jun 10, 7:37 PMDec 25, 4:59 AM

64%chance

262135244

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1334

751

Will AIs be widely recognized as having developed a new, innovative, foundational mathematical theory before 2030?

Jul 24, 7:30 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

39.56%chance

11127194

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1478

1425

Will Sam Altman become more cautious about AGI/ASI development after having a child?

Nov 9, 2:29 PMJul 31, 9:59 PM

14.72%chance

5117110

OptionVotes

YES

NO

24146

3821

The FDA will approve an AI developed cure before the end of the decade (<2030) for a previously incurable major illness.

Dec 21, 5:45 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

26.39%chance

11310856

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3127

765

Will Metr find AI reduces developer productivity in their second study?

Jan 2, 3:19 AMJan 1, 5:59 AM

12.14%chance

429785

OptionVotes

YES

NO

10747

1429

Will a therapy that substantially slows down or reverses the aging process in humans be developed before 2040?

Mar 17, 12:49 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

60.12%chance

276740

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1204

814

Will there be an international moratorium on frontier AGI development by EOY 2033?

Mar 24, 2:41 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

21.6%chance

154159

OptionVotes

YES

NO

13624

8759

Will MNX hire a backend developer before Manifest?

Apr 30, 11:10 PMJun 12, 11:04 PM

25.53%chance

443075

OptionVotes

NO

YES

10652

7768

Will the US Gini index measured by the OECD go above 0.43 before the end of 2028, potentially due to AI developments ?

Dec 27, 4:20 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

55%chance

11274

OptionVotes

NO

YES

242

126

Will the developers of the game Farlight 84 adding back jetpacks in next update?

Mar 29, 9:08 PMDec 30, 10:04 PM

00

OptionProbability

Yes

No

They wouldn't add jetpacks in the next update, but in the one after that yes

33

33

33

What will happen with Cursed Crew's development?

Jun 25, 4:29 PMJan 1, 5:59 AM

00

OptionProbability

Curse update released in 2025

Game is cancelled 😢

Game leaves early access in 2025

Game leaves early access in 2026

Game gets 1,000 Steam reviews before 2027

50

50

50

50

50

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