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Prediction markets for Developer Relations

Is the "Promethean virus" in Large Language Models real?

Jun 7, 10:50 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

11.08%chance

8138437

OptionVotes

YES

NO

27819

3071

Will Koi be the first species we uplift?

Dec 20, 7:30 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

13.95%chance

728703

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2438

1224

Will GiveWell fund Sayana® Press by 1st January 2027?

Dec 17, 4:49 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

15.58%chance

156839

OptionVotes

YES

NO

8427

3028

Will there be a terrorist attack against OpenAI before 2027?

Jun 1, 2:14 PMDec 31, 4:59 PM

15.68%chance

526622

OptionVotes

YES

NO

4993

1363

AI generated philosophy book worth reading by the end of 2030 (detailed scenario)?

May 29, 12:00 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

70.02%chance

504175

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1528

654

Will someone take desperate measures due to expectations of AI-related risks by January 1, 2035?

May 18, 11:08 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

90.54%chance

383908

OptionVotes

NO

YES

7894

5344

10. Brain-computer interfaces transition to mainstream technology, Neuralink position in lead shakier [See full title!]

Dec 28, 11:39 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

48.44%chance

213540

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1033

971

What spacefaring-related technologies will humans develop before the first human travels to a different star?

Apr 6, 12:43 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

373079

OptionProbability

Fusion

AGI

Laser Propulsion

Mind uploading

Cryogenics

Space guns

ASI

Antimatter propulsion

Warp Drive

Dyson Sphere

Space Elevators (+ req material tech)

Teleportation (Local)

Ansible (faster than light communication)

Jump Drive (distant teleportation/ displacement)

89

88

85

83

81

80

79

74

72

46

37

25

21

19

Will GiveWell fund Educate! Experience program by 1st January 2027?

Dec 17, 7:16 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

19.92%chance

92626

OptionVotes

NO

YES

4193

4124

Will there be a military operation to slow down AI development by the end of 2035?

Jun 1, 12:28 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM

31.53%chance

251478

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1474

679

Will someone win the Healthspan XPRIZE of 101m restoring muscle, cognition, immune function by minimum 10yrs by 2030?

Nov 29, 11:58 PMDec 7, 7:59 AM

27.95%chance

9442

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1484

1113

China provides Russia >100k AI chips by 2030?

Oct 30, 12:17 PMJul 1, 10:59 PM

51.45%chance

4170

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1095

1027

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