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Prediction markets for Developer Relations

Donut Battery is essentially Lithium free?

Mar 4, 3:00 AMJan 1, 3:50 AM

22.55%chance

183788873

OptionVotes

YES

NO

185348

53952

Is the "Promethean virus" in Large Language Models real?

Jun 7, 10:50 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

10.55%chance

8250361

OptionVotes

YES

NO

28550

2982

8. AI a central issue in the 2026 U.S. midterms. Politics get complex, especially regarding job loss [See full title!]

Dec 28, 11:33 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

62.52%chance

3826421

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1294

776

Will GiveWell fund Sayana® Press by 1st January 2027?

Dec 17, 4:49 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

82.09%chance

2016004

OptionVotes

NO

YES

9006

1009

Will there be a terrorist attack against OpenAI before 2027?

Jun 1, 2:14 PMDec 31, 4:59 PM

10.48%chance

7310686

OptionVotes

YES

NO

6576

1130

Will Koi be the first species we uplift?

Dec 20, 7:30 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

13.02%chance

748854

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2589

1201

Will GiveWell fund Educate! Experience program by 1st January 2027?

Dec 17, 7:16 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

8.68%chance

117430

OptionVotes

YES

NO

8928

3471

10. Brain-computer interfaces transition to mainstream technology, Neuralink position in lead shakier [See full title!]

Dec 28, 11:39 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

32.07%chance

347402

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1458

688

AI generated philosophy book worth reading by the end of 2030 (detailed scenario)?

May 29, 12:00 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

65.5%chance

534616

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1378

726

What spacefaring-related technologies will humans develop before the first human travels to a different star?

Apr 6, 12:43 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

383161

OptionProbability

Fusion

AGI

Laser Propulsion

Mind uploading

Cryogenics

Space guns

ASI

Antimatter propulsion

Warp Drive

Dyson Sphere

Space Elevators (+ req material tech)

Teleportation (Local)

Jump Drive (distant teleportation/ displacement)

Ansible (faster than light communication)

90

90

85

83

82

80

79

74

72

46

37

25

19

17

Will the FDA publicly accept a multi-condition geroscience endpoint as sufficient to establish efficacy before 2036?

Jul 14, 11:45 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

57.59%chance

7575

OptionVotes

NO

YES

6240

5801

Will someone win the Healthspan XPRIZE of 101m restoring muscle, cognition, immune function by minimum 10yrs by 2030?

Nov 29, 11:58 PMDec 7, 7:59 AM

27.95%chance

9442

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1484

1113

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