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Prediction markets for Developer Relations

Donut Battery is essentially Lithium free?

Mar 4, 3:00 AMJan 1, 3:50 AM

16.52%chance

163615016

OptionVotes

YES

NO

224833

44477

Is the "Promethean virus" in Large Language Models real?

Jun 7, 10:50 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

8.34%chance

8146108

OptionVotes

YES

NO

32243

2599

Will Koi be the first species we uplift?

Dec 20, 7:30 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

13.95%chance

728703

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2438

1224

Will GiveWell fund Sayana® Press by 1st January 2027?

Dec 17, 4:49 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

13.48%chance

157839

OptionVotes

YES

NO

9427

2859

Will there be a terrorist attack against OpenAI before 2027?

Jun 1, 2:14 PMDec 31, 4:59 PM

26.23%chance

637472

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3396

1772

10. Brain-computer interfaces transition to mainstream technology, Neuralink position in lead shakier [See full title!]

Dec 28, 11:39 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

36%chance

325752

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1335

751

AI generated philosophy book worth reading by the end of 2030 (detailed scenario)?

May 29, 12:00 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

62.73%chance

514506

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1297

771

What spacefaring-related technologies will humans develop before the first human travels to a different star?

Apr 6, 12:43 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

383161

OptionProbability

Fusion

AGI

Laser Propulsion

Mind uploading

Cryogenics

Space guns

ASI

Antimatter propulsion

Warp Drive

Dyson Sphere

Space Elevators (+ req material tech)

Teleportation (Local)

Jump Drive (distant teleportation/ displacement)

Ansible (faster than light communication)

90

90

85

83

82

80

79

74

72

46

37

25

19

17

Will GiveWell fund Educate! Experience program by 1st January 2027?

Dec 17, 7:16 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

19.92%chance

92626

OptionVotes

NO

YES

4193

4124

Will the FDA publicly accept a multi-condition geroscience endpoint as sufficient to establish efficacy before 2036?

Jul 14, 11:45 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

57.59%chance

7575

OptionVotes

NO

YES

6240

5801

Will someone win the Healthspan XPRIZE of 101m restoring muscle, cognition, immune function by minimum 10yrs by 2030?

Nov 29, 11:58 PMDec 7, 7:59 AM

27.95%chance

9442

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1484

1113

China provides Russia >100k AI chips by 2030?

Oct 30, 12:17 PMJul 1, 10:59 PM

52.33%chance

6247

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1115

1009

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