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Prediction markets for Developer Relations

Is the "Promethean virus" in Large Language Models real?

Jun 7, 10:50 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

13.02%chance

7532370

OptionVotes

YES

NO

25533

3383

Will Iran possess a nuclear weapon before 2026?

Jan 22, 9:43 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

5.17%chance

4328149

OptionVotes

YES

NO

14507

9650

Will the OpenAI Non-Profit become a major AI Safety research funder? (Announced by end of 2025)

Dec 28, 12:57 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

16.98%chance

1923681

OptionVotes

YES

NO

22111

4523

3. Donald Trump and Elon Musk will have a messy falling-out. This will have meaningful consequences for the world of AI.

Dec 27, 8:14 AMJan 3, 10:59 PM

79.49%chance

6116874

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1969

508

Will Koi be the first species we uplift?

Dec 20, 7:30 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

13.95%chance

728703

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2438

1224

Will there be a terrorist attack against OpenAI before 2027?

Jun 1, 2:14 PMDec 31, 4:59 PM

17.63%chance

496222

OptionVotes

YES

NO

4593

1443

Will GiveWell fund Sayana® Press by 1st January 2027?

Dec 17, 4:49 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

19.05%chance

145589

OptionVotes

YES

NO

7177

3289

AI generated philosophy book worth reading by the end of 2030 (detailed scenario)?

May 29, 12:00 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

67.44%chance

473985

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1439

695

Will someone take desperate measures due to expectations of AI-related risks by January 1, 2035?

May 18, 11:08 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

90.54%chance

383908

OptionVotes

NO

YES

7894

5344

What spacefaring-related technologies will humans develop before the first human travels to a different star?

Apr 6, 12:43 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

373057

OptionProbability

Fusion

AGI

Laser Propulsion

Mind uploading

Cryogenics

Space guns

ASI

Antimatter propulsion

Warp Drive

Dyson Sphere

Space Elevators (+ req material tech)

Teleportation (Local)

Ansible (faster than light communication)

Jump Drive (distant teleportation/ displacement)

89

87

85

83

81

80

79

74

72

46

37

25

21

19

Will GiveWell fund Educate! Experience program by 1st January 2027?

Dec 17, 7:16 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

19.92%chance

92626

OptionVotes

NO

YES

4193

4124

Can anti-cavity oral probiotics spread directly between people via mouth-to-mouth contact?

Nov 20, 2:28 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

30.46%chance

24640

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2026

1864

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