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Prediction markets for Development

Will a reliable and general household robot be developed before January 1st, 2030?

Apr 27, 7:21 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

71%chance

703682076

OptionVotes

NO

YES

21853

4992

Will we develop Leopold's 'drop-in remote AI workers' by end of 2027?

Jun 10, 7:37 PMDec 25, 4:59 AM

69.87%chance

281155182

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1524

657

Will AIs be widely recognized as having developed a new, innovative, foundational mathematical theory before 2030?

Jul 24, 7:30 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

69%chance

12329807

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2372

673

Will at least 25 nations collaborate to develop and enforce unified AI development standards internationally by 2035?

Jan 14, 1:10 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

78.44%chance

7412334

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1927

1123

The FDA will approve an AI developed cure before the end of the decade (<2030) for a previously incurable major illness.

Dec 21, 5:45 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

26.39%chance

11310856

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3127

765

Will Metr find AI reduces developer productivity in their second study?

Jan 2, 3:19 AMJan 1, 5:59 AM

12.14%chance

429785

OptionVotes

YES

NO

10747

1429

Chat-style AI models will be a big part of 10% or more of workers's workflows in developed nations by 2027

Feb 2, 3:09 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

71.07%chance

1298015

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1846

1470

Will a therapy that substantially slows down or reverses the aging process in humans be developed before 2040?

Mar 17, 12:49 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

60.12%chance

276740

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1204

814

Will there be an international moratorium on frontier AGI development by EOY 2033?

Mar 24, 2:41 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

26%chance

184826

OptionVotes

YES

NO

11492

9421

Will the US Gini index measured by the OECD go above 0.43 before the end of 2028, potentially due to AI developments ?

Dec 27, 4:20 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

55%chance

11274

OptionVotes

NO

YES

242

126

Detroit LVT: Will newly city-owned properties experience less development than they have in prior years? (2028)

Oct 13, 3:23 AMJan 1, 5:59 AM

60.6%chance

343

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1207

1177

Will the developers of the game Farlight 84 adding back jetpacks in next update?

Mar 29, 9:08 PMDec 30, 10:04 PM

00

OptionProbability

Yes

No

They wouldn't add jetpacks in the next update, but in the one after that yes

33

33

33

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