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Prediction markets for DH

Which UK political figures will defect to Reform UK before the next election?

Jan 14, 11:11 AMAug 14, 11:59 PM

203678

OptionProbability

Suella Braverman

Robert Jenrick

At least five MPs elected as Conservatives in 2024

At least one MP elected as Labour in 2024

Katie Lam

Jacob Rees-Mogg

Liz Truss

Priti Patel

Dan Carden

100

100

87

58

46

39

36

20

13

Will an ICE Agent engage in an "Unjustified" shooting at a U.S. airport before the 2026 DHS Shutdown ends?

Mar 24, 9:35 PMSep 30, 11:59 PM

1.2%chance

233407

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1214

34

Will The Pokémon Company pursue legal action against DHS/the US govt for the DHS Pokemon video before Dec 2027?

Sep 26, 3:50 PMDec 1, 5:59 AM

10.79%chance

52234

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2703

107

Will more people die in (major) plane crashes than (major) train crashes in 2026?

Feb 17, 6:14 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

35.11%chance

131565

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1359

736

How many LA Dodgers players that start on Opening Day will be injured at some point during the 2026 season?

Jan 22, 9:00 PMOct 1, 10:59 PM

41003

OptionProbability

4-5

6-7

0-1

2-3

8-9

65

32

1

1

1

Widespread reports of ICE or DHS agents guarding polling stations during Trump II

Aug 15, 4:17 AMJan 20, 11:59 PM

65.86%chance

5613

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1389

720

Will MS Dhoni remain actively associated with CSK even after retiring?

Apr 28, 7:45 PMMar 31, 6:29 PM

87.17%chance

11399

OptionVotes

NO

YES

452

87

If confirmed, will Markwayne Mullin be DHS Secretary until 19 Jan 2029?

Mar 20, 5:04 AMJan 19, 12:00 AM

46.47%chance

12392

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1166

828

Will anyone summit Dhaulagiri in the fall 2026 climbing season?

Sep 21, 7:56 PMDec 1, 11:59 PM

12.13%chance

2169

OptionVotes

YES

NO

269

37

Will a commercial non-stop flight between New York and Dhaka exist before the end of 2027?

Nov 4, 4:09 AMDec 31, 3:59 PM

33.78%chance

220

OptionVotes

YES

NO

70

36

If confirmed, will Markwayne Mullin be DHS Secretary until 19 Jan 2029?

Aug 12, 4:29 PMJan 19, 12:00 AM

46.47%chance

00

OptionVotes

NO

YES

100

100

Is Dhalgren, by Samuel R. Delany, the greatest American science fiction novel of all time?

Nov 26, 1:06 PM

00

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