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Prediction markets for DI

Will a room-temperature, atmospheric pressure superconductor be discovered before 2030?

Apr 20, 1:54 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

7.5%chance

8811875398

OptionVotes

YES

NO

36902

9335

Who will be the next person to win an election to US House District 11, other than Nancy Pelosi?

Jun 4, 5:21 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

1561329975

OptionProbability

Scott Wiener

Connie Chan

Bruce Lou

Christine Pelosi

Jane Kim

Nancy Pelosi will live forever and always win

Saikat Chakrabarti

London Breed

Other

66

33

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

This market resolves YES when an artificial agent is appointed to the board of directors of a S&P500 company, meanwhile every day I will bet M25 in NO.

Dec 11, 5:49 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

66%chance

324660393

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2858

2143

By 2028, will there be a visible break in trend line on US GDP, GDP per capita, unemployment, or productivity, which most economists attribute directly to the effects of AI?

Feb 20, 10:31 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

39.11%chance

619657288

OptionVotes

NO

YES

5625

4094

Will Donald Trump die or become seriously ill before the end of his term?

Nov 12, 7:10 PMJan 19, 9:59 PM

18%chance

920547729

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2527

679

How old will Bryan Johnson be when he dies of natural causes?

Jul 18, 9:23 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

59.9%chance

246171958

OptionProbability

NO

YES

4793

4747

EOY 2030, how difficult will it be to get gender affirming care (puberty blockers, HRT) for a minor in California?

Jan 22, 7:13 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

47106751

OptionProbability

About the same as in 2024

Notably more difficult than in 2024

Notably easier than in 2024

Virtually impossible

39

29

23

9

Will Di Maria Play for Argentina Again Before Retirement?

Jan 14, 3:58 AMJan 1, 2:59 PM

11.12%chance

3195

OptionVotes

YES

NO

283

35

Will "Endometriosis is an incredibly interesting di..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

Jun 17, 4:54 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

23.16%chance

7148

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1090

589

Will Leonardo Di Caprio get a star on the Hollywood Walk of Fame by EOY 2030?

Mar 10, 6:10 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

70.83%chance

11143

OptionVotes

NO

YES

300

172

Will Buca di Beppo have less than 20 locations by EOY 2030?

Jul 14, 11:46 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

53.35%chance

452

OptionVotes

NO

YES

107

94

Will Bucca di Beppo still operate at least 10 restaurants in the USA at the end of 2029?

Jan 9, 9:54 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

63.15%chance

350

OptionVotes

NO

YES

131

76

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