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Prediction markets for DI

Will a room-temperature, atmospheric pressure superconductor be discovered before 2030?

Apr 20, 1:54 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

5.55%chance

8721874267

OptionVotes

YES

NO

47111

8632

Who will be the next person to win an election to US House District 11, other than Nancy Pelosi?

Jun 4, 5:21 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

121673455

OptionProbability

Scott Wiener

Connie Chan

Saikat Chakrabarti

Other

Bruce Lou

Christine Pelosi

Jane Kim

London Breed

Nancy Pelosi will live forever and always win

55

26

15

2

1

1

1

1

0

This market resolves YES when an artificial agent is appointed to the board of directors of a S&P500 company, meanwhile every day I will bet M25 in NO.

Dec 11, 5:49 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

70.16%chance

301639965

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2709

2461

By 2028, will there be a visible break in trend line on US GDP, GDP per capita, unemployment, or productivity, which most economists attribute directly to the effects of AI?

Feb 20, 10:31 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

52%chance

558504214

OptionVotes

NO

YES

3558

1071

Will Donald Trump die or become seriously ill before the end of his term?

Nov 12, 7:10 PMJan 19, 9:59 PM

20.67%chance

874502818

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2299

733

How old will Bryan Johnson be when he dies of natural causes?

Jul 18, 9:23 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

59.9%chance

239170459

OptionProbability

NO

YES

4793

4747

EOY 2030, how difficult will it be to get gender affirming care (puberty blockers, HRT) for a minor in California?

Jan 22, 7:13 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

4372591

OptionProbability

About the same as in 2024

Notably more difficult than in 2024

Notably easier than in 2024

Virtually impossible

33

33

19

15

Will Di Maria Play for Argentina Again Before Retirement?

Jan 14, 3:58 AMJan 1, 2:59 PM

13.54%chance

3165

OptionVotes

YES

NO

253

40

Will "Endometriosis is an incredibly interesting di..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

Jun 17, 4:54 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

19.81%chance

6118

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1060

699

Will Leonardo Di Caprio get a star on the Hollywood Walk of Fame by EOY 2030?

Mar 10, 6:10 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

69.62%chance

8106

OptionVotes

NO

YES

290

176

Will Buca di Beppo have less than 20 locations by EOY 2030?

Jul 14, 11:46 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

53.35%chance

452

OptionVotes

NO

YES

107

94

Will Bucca di Beppo still operate at least 10 restaurants in the USA at the end of 2029?

Jan 9, 9:54 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

63.15%chance

350

OptionVotes

NO

YES

131

76

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