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Prediction markets for DI

Who will be the next person to win an election to US House District 11, other than Nancy Pelosi?

Jun 4, 5:21 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

123742923

OptionProbability

Scott Wiener

Saikat Chakrabarti

Connie Chan

Christine Pelosi

London Breed

Other

Bruce Lou

Jane Kim

Nancy Pelosi will live forever and always win

59

25

13

1

1

1

0

0

0

By 2028, will there be a visible break in trend line on US GDP, GDP per capita, unemployment, or productivity, which most economists attribute directly to the effects of AI?

Feb 20, 10:31 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

44%chance

597583936

OptionVotes

NO

YES

3288

1364

Will Donald Trump die or become seriously ill before the end of his term?

Nov 12, 7:10 PMJan 19, 9:59 PM

20.44%chance

901517777

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2317

729

How old will Bryan Johnson be when he dies of natural causes?

Jul 18, 9:23 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

59.9%chance

244170857

OptionProbability

NO

YES

4793

4747

EOY 2030, how difficult will it be to get gender affirming care (puberty blockers, HRT) for a minor in California?

Jan 22, 7:13 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

4574069

OptionProbability

About the same as in 2024

Notably more difficult than in 2024

Notably easier than in 2024

Virtually impossible

34

32

20

14

Who will win the NAQT Quizbowl Intercollegiate Championship Tournament (ICT) DI 2026?

Feb 18, 7:45 PMApr 12, 11:59 PM

6371

OptionProbability

UC Berkeley

NYU

Toronto

Stanford

Waterloo

Virginia Tech

Northwestern

WUSTL

Columbia

Harvard

Chicago

Georgia Tech

Other

34

21

13

9

5

5

2

2

2

2

2

2

2

Will Di Maria Play for Argentina Again Before Retirement?

Jan 14, 3:58 AMJan 1, 2:59 PM

12.66%chance

3175

OptionVotes

YES

NO

263

38

Will "Endometriosis is an incredibly interesting di..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

Jun 17, 4:54 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

23.16%chance

7148

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1090

589

Will Leonardo Di Caprio get a star on the Hollywood Walk of Fame by EOY 2030?

Mar 10, 6:10 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

69.62%chance

8106

OptionVotes

NO

YES

290

176

CS si tinge i capelli di colori improbabili (blu o rosa) entro il 16/04

Mar 16, 7:46 PMApr 15, 11:59 PM

42.25%chance

270

OptionVotes

YES

NO

117

86

Will Buca di Beppo have less than 20 locations by EOY 2030?

Jul 14, 11:46 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

53.35%chance

452

OptionVotes

NO

YES

107

94

Will Bucca di Beppo still operate at least 10 restaurants in the USA at the end of 2029?

Jan 9, 9:54 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

63.15%chance

350

OptionVotes

NO

YES

131

76

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