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Prediction markets for Diagnostics

ChatGPT-induced psychosis added to DSM-6 by December 31, 2030

Jul 17, 4:21 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

14.1%chance

203869

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2468

405

Will AI be regularly used to diagnose complex diseases by 2028?

Jan 19, 2:08 AMJul 2, 4:59 AM

26.13%chance

301765

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1292

854

[Carlini questions] Best AI systems will out-perform PhDs and top experts in most problem-solving tasks

Mar 24, 2:24 AMJan 1, 11:59 PM

6623

OptionProbability

By 1st Jan 2030

By 1st Jan 2029

By 1st Jan 2028

By 1st Jan 2027

By 1st Jan 2026

55

45

34

24

11

Which biotech scaleup will have the largest market cap in 2030?

Mar 8, 6:05 AMJan 1, 3:59 PM

11599

OptionProbability

Twist Bioscience

Recursion Pharmaceuticals

10x genomics

Ginkgo Bioworks

40

34

20

9

I'll have a higher biological age than actual age (per True Diagnostics)

May 14, 6:22 PMJun 13, 6:20 PM

90.67%chance

14472

OptionVotes

NO

YES

312

32

Which Advance Market Commitment (AMC) will get funded first?

Sep 28, 1:35 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

5455

OptionProbability

Broad-spectrum antivirals

Diagnostics for neonatal sepsis

Repurposing generic drugs

39

38

22

Which emerging technology will have the greatest impact on healthcare in the next five years:

Dec 10, 6:25 AMDec 10, 6:59 AM

19428

OptionProbability

Other

AI diagnostics

Gene editing

59

29

12

Will the Apple Watch be able to properly monitor blood pressure by 2030?

May 2, 8:49 PMJan 1, 6:59 AM

65.19%chance

16387

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1072

954

Will a cure for fibromyalgia exist by 2036?

Jan 20, 9:36 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

35.43%chance

3350

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1350

741

[Metaculus] Using AI tools as part of diagnostic process considered best practice in clinical psychology before 2029?

Oct 22, 8:52 AMJan 2, 12:00 PM

32.85%chance

12312

OptionVotes

YES

NO

207

108

Will I be officially diagnosed with ADHD?

Feb 24, 5:46 PMAug 25, 6:59 AM

67.74%chance

340

OptionVotes

NO

YES

105

97

24 months after Cannabis is rescheduled will the medical community develop an effective CHS diagnostic tests?

May 15, 5:02 AMApr 20, 9:20 PM

62.5%chance

130

OptionVotes

NO

YES

129

77

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