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Prediction markets for Diagnostics

ChatGPT-induced psychosis added to DSM-6 by December 31, 2030

Jul 17, 4:21 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

14.1%chance

203869

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2468

405

Will AI be regularly used to diagnose complex diseases by 2028?

Jan 19, 2:08 AMJul 2, 4:59 AM

24.29%chance

382591

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1377

825

What will I be diagnosed with?

Apr 28, 10:16 AMOct 22, 9:20 AM

211517

OptionProbability

Autism

ADHD

Attachment Disorder

Dysthymia

C-PDSD

Personality Disorder

Intellectual giftedness (130+ IQ)

Substance Use Disorder

Bipolar Disorder

Long COVID

87

86

75

51

38

31

28

23

17

11

[Carlini questions] Best AI systems will out-perform PhDs and top experts in most problem-solving tasks

Mar 24, 2:24 AMJan 1, 11:59 PM

6623

OptionProbability

By 1st Jan 2030

By 1st Jan 2029

By 1st Jan 2028

By 1st Jan 2027

By 1st Jan 2026

55

45

34

24

11

Which biotech scaleup will have the largest market cap in 2030?

Mar 8, 6:05 AMJan 1, 3:59 PM

11599

OptionProbability

Twist Bioscience

Recursion Pharmaceuticals

10x genomics

Ginkgo Bioworks

40

34

20

9

Which Advance Market Commitment (AMC) will get funded first?

Sep 28, 1:35 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

5455

OptionProbability

Broad-spectrum antivirals

Diagnostics for neonatal sepsis

Repurposing generic drugs

39

38

22

Which emerging technology will have the greatest impact on healthcare in the next five years:

Dec 10, 6:25 AMDec 10, 6:59 AM

19428

OptionProbability

Other

AI diagnostics

Gene editing

59

29

12

Will the Apple Watch be able to properly monitor blood pressure by 2030?

May 2, 8:49 PMJan 1, 6:59 AM

65.19%chance

16387

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1072

954

Will a cure for fibromyalgia exist by 2036?

Jan 20, 9:36 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

35.43%chance

3350

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1350

741

[Metaculus] Using AI tools as part of diagnostic process considered best practice in clinical psychology before 2029?

Oct 22, 8:52 AMJan 2, 12:00 PM

32.85%chance

12312

OptionVotes

YES

NO

207

108

Will fibromyalgia be shown to reflect one main condition rather than many?

Jan 20, 9:12 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

33.78%chance

240

OptionVotes

YES

NO

140

71

24 months after Cannabis is rescheduled will the medical community develop an effective CHS diagnostic tests?

May 15, 5:02 AMApr 20, 9:20 PM

62.5%chance

130

OptionVotes

NO

YES

129

77

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