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EOY 2030, how difficult will it be to get gender affirming care (puberty blockers, HRT) for a minor in California?

Jan 22, 7:13 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

3348416

OptionProbability

About the same as in 2024

Notably more difficult than in 2024

Notably easier than in 2024

Virtually impossible

31

27

24

17

At end of year 2026, how difficult will it be to obtain feminizing HRT as an adult in blue states?

Jul 14, 5:30 PMJan 1, 5:59 AM

6016181

OptionProbability

About the same as in 2024

Notably more difficult than in 2024

Notably easier than in 2024

Virtually impossible

47

43

7

4

In 2040, will expert consensus suggest there are strong innate psychological differences by biological sex?

Mar 15, 1:46 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

55%chance

8512836

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1335

1081

Will expert consensus suggest there are strong innate psychological differences by biological sex? (Excluding: sex desire)

Apr 2, 5:39 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

55.12%chance

428528

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1110

864

Are different inertial frames symmetric?

Nov 28, 3:02 PMNov 3, 2:59 PM

14.24%chance

276120

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2012

113

Will Google look substantially different as a company in 36 months?

May 10, 11:42 AMMay 1, 11:31 AM

29.17%chance

221105

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1558

642

Will From Software have released a game featuring customizable difficulty settings by the start of 2026?

Aug 8, 12:45 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

40.34%chance

51081

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1216

822

Within a month of Silksong's release, would several large gaming outlets publish articles about its difficulty?

Apr 5, 8:18 AMDec 31, 9:59 PM

65.32%chance

20849

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1070

780

Will a frontier-level diffusion LLM exist by 2028?

Mar 1, 8:40 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

41.19%chance

10810

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1195

837

Will an AI agent be able to draw a mid-2024-diffusion-model-quality image in a standard drawing program by 2027?

Sep 2, 6:22 PMJan 1, 6:59 PM

59.87%chance

10781

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1224

822

Will the sex difference in the general factor of anxiety be of the same magnitude as the sex difference in anxiety?

Mar 25, 8:59 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

73.72%chance

12240

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1081

955

Will LLMs estimate someone's dif in estimated income after either candidate wins the US presidency by EOY 2028?

Mar 10, 10:55 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

43.06%chance

115

OptionVotes

YES

NO

135

107

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