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Prediction markets for Digital Currents

Will GiveWell fund Electronic partogram by 1st January 2027?

Dec 18, 12:54 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

25.5%chance

1812354

OptionVotes

YES

NO

9625

2195

Who will control the U.S. Senate after the 2026 midterms?

Jan 7, 4:24 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

577455

OptionProbability

Democrats

Republicans

Independents

50

50

0

Will any notable scientist or public intellectual posthumously publish as an AI simulacrum before EoY 2027?

Jun 12, 3:00 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

7.64%chance

226982

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3477

288

Will Canada's "Online News Act" (bill C-18) be amended or repealed by 2027?

Aug 10, 3:59 AMJan 2, 4:59 AM

81.31%chance

93929

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1134

954

Will blockchain gaming or blockchain features provide meaningful gameplay innovation to players in the next 4 years?

Dec 25, 9:19 PMJan 31, 2:59 AM

10%chance

443134

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1409

913

Will Gavin Newsom be strongly anti-AI before March 2, 2028?

Dec 29, 9:03 PMMar 1, 11:59 PM

25.24%chance

133032

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1721

581

Will we see an open source LLM model better than Opus 4.5 before the end of 2026?

Jan 2, 6:14 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

85.34%chance

162491

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2413

414

Will cryptocurrencies replace fiat money before 2040?

Apr 21, 7:02 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

18.92%chance

92252

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2070

483

Will humanity calculate pi to more than 1 Quadrillion (10^15) digits before the end of 2030?

Sep 15, 1:44 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

83.62%chance

16521

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1292

916

Will a video on Youtube break the current record for most viewed independent animation pilot before Jan 1st 2027?

Dec 1, 9:19 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

48.72%chance

17413

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1214

725

Will a new social media platform be the most popular worldwide by 2032?

Mar 9, 5:01 AMJan 1, 3:59 PM

43.33%chance

15191

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1041

938

When will my app WalkYourTime reach the first 100 downloads?

Apr 7, 9:41 AMFeb 1, 9:59 PM

00

OptionProbability

May-Aug 2026

Sep-Dec 2026

Jan-Apr 2027

May-Aug 2027

Sep-Dec 2027

Jan-Apr 2028

May-Aug 2028

Sep-Dec 2028

Jan-Apr 2029

May-Aug 2029

Sep-Dec 2029

9

9

9

9

9

9

9

9

9

9

9

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