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Prediction markets for Digital Currents

Will GiveWell fund Electronic partogram by 1st January 2027?

Dec 18, 12:54 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

25.5%chance

1812354

OptionVotes

YES

NO

9625

2195

Will any notable scientist or public intellectual posthumously publish as an AI simulacrum before EoY 2027?

Jun 12, 3:00 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

7.64%chance

226982

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3477

288

Will Canada's "Online News Act" (bill C-18) be amended or repealed by 2027?

Aug 10, 3:59 AMJan 2, 4:59 AM

81.31%chance

93929

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1134

954

Will Gavin Newsom be strongly anti-AI before March 2, 2028?

Dec 29, 9:03 PMMar 1, 11:59 PM

20.68%chance

122555

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1958

511

Will blockchain gaming or blockchain features provide meaningful gameplay innovation to players in the next 4 years?

Dec 25, 9:19 PMJan 31, 2:59 AM

9.56%chance

432203

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1470

906

Will we see an open source LLM model better than Opus 4.5 before the end of 2026?

Jan 2, 6:14 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

79%chance

91081

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1940

516

Will humanity calculate pi to more than 1 Quadrillion (10^15) digits before the end of 2030?

Sep 15, 1:44 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

83.62%chance

16521

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1292

916

Will a video on Youtube break the current record for most viewed independent animation pilot before Jan 1st 2027?

Dec 1, 9:19 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

51.44%chance

16363

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1164

776

In what year will Remote Labor Index automation rate reaches 80%?

Dec 12, 11:01 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

4248

OptionProbability

2027

2026

2028

2025

2029

Other

2030 or later

76

14

3

2

2

2

1

Will a new social media platform be the most popular worldwide by 2032?

Mar 9, 5:01 AMJan 1, 3:59 PM

43.33%chance

15191

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1041

938

Will the UK require biometric ID (e.g. facial recognition or digital fingerprinting) for NHS access by 2030?

Jul 21, 10:41 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

23.72%chance

5164

OptionVotes

YES

NO

179

56

What rank in views will The Amazing Digital Circus Finale get?

Dec 1, 3:36 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

130

OptionProbability

7th-9th

4th-6th

1st-3rd

42

32

26

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