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Prediction markets for Digital Markets Unit

Clarity Act will pass in September

Jun 4, 1:00 AMSep 30, 11:59 PM

1.42%chance

2814452

OptionVotes

YES

NO

8339

120

Will any Nuclear weapons be used by the US till 2027?

Mar 1, 9:31 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

5.26%chance

241393

OptionVotes

YES

NO

424

24

Will Trump annex/take military action against Brazil by EOY 2028?

Jun 16, 3:00 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

21.6%chance

111162

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1905

525

Will the US concede Taiwan to the PRC before 2030?

Mar 1, 4:06 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

21.21%chance

14835

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1015

943

When will freedom.gov go live?

Mar 4, 5:51 AMJan 2, 4:59 AM

2369

OptionProbability

September 1, 2026 – Dec 31, 2026

Jan 1, 2027 +

May 1, 2026 – August 31, 2026

On or Before April 30, 2026

44

36

17

2

Airstrike on a UK datacenter before 2035?

Jul 8, 11:40 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

13.98%chance

5254

OptionVotes

YES

NO

248

40

Will the BRICS nations officially launch a common digital settlement currency for international trade by the end of 2026

Feb 2, 11:47 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

18.14%chance

9159

OptionVotes

YES

NO

212

47

Will the United States regulate cryptocurrency due to its use in upcoming war before the end of 2027

Mar 22, 8:45 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

22%chance

5138

OptionVotes

YES

NO

188

53

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