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Prediction markets for Digital Markets Unit

Clarity Act will pass in September

Jun 4, 1:00 AMSep 30, 11:59 PM

33.64%chance

42768

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1404

712

Will any Nuclear weapons be used by the US till 2027?

Mar 1, 9:31 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

5.51%chance

231383

OptionVotes

YES

NO

414

24

Will the US concede Taiwan to the PRC before 2030?

Mar 1, 4:06 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

22.59%chance

12744

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1031

884

Will Trump annex/take military action against Brazil by EOY 2028?

Jun 16, 3:00 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

44.4%chance

8346

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1119

894

When will freedom.gov go live?

Mar 4, 5:51 AMJan 2, 4:59 AM

2166

OptionProbability

May 1, 2026 – August 31, 2026

September 1, 2026 – Dec 31, 2026

Jan 1, 2027 +

On or Before April 30, 2026

72

13

11

3

Will the BRICS nations officially launch a common digital settlement currency for international trade by the end of 2026

Feb 2, 11:47 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

19%chance

8151

OptionVotes

YES

NO

206

48

Will the United States regulate cryptocurrency due to its use in upcoming war before the end of 2027

Mar 22, 8:45 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

22%chance

5138

OptionVotes

YES

NO

188

53

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