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Prediction markets for Digital Transformation

2030 – 3. Over one hundred thousand humanoid robots will be deployed in the real world.

Mar 11, 12:08 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

82.06%chance

372697

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1928

630

Will Pope Leo XIV give a p(doom) estimate in a public statement before January 1, 2026?

May 12, 9:02 PMJan 1, 12:00 AM

3.94%chance

131763

OptionVotes

YES

NO

494

20

Will AI usage in 2030 be split in tiers where the best and most expensive models are used rarely compared to cheaper and lower-quality models?

Dec 23, 9:10 PMJan 2, 5:59 AM

83.36%chance

21941

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1135

944

Will blockchain technology be used for storing at least 10% of global GDP by 2027?

Nov 15, 1:49 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

30%chance

10916

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1528

655

Will there be a Team Fortress 2 sequel or spin-off game released or announced before September 2025?

Jul 3, 9:17 AMAug 31, 11:59 PM

9.04%chance

13589

OptionVotes

YES

NO

407

89

Which countries will have a lower annual GDP per capita than Guyana in any year before 2050

Apr 16, 8:25 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

2327

OptionProbability

Lithuania

Portugal

Bahrain

Bahamas

Brunei

Slovenia

Andorra

Estonia

Kuwait

Spain

Saudi Arabia

Czech Republic

New Zealand

France

Malta

Italy

Cyprus

Taiwan

Finland

Canada

Germany

United Arab Emirates

Israel

United Kingdom

South Korea

Japan

76

66

66

54

50

50

44

44

42

41

41

41

34

34

34

34

34

34

24

24

24

24

24

24

24

24

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