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Prediction markets for Digital World

Will there be a child polymath of unprecedented talent before 2045?

Aug 5, 8:33 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

28.39%chance

133336

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1588

630

2030 – 3. Over one hundred thousand humanoid robots will be deployed in the real world.

Mar 11, 12:08 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

82.06%chance

372697

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1928

630

Will Worldcoin hit 100$ and if yes when will it happen ?

Dec 17, 7:14 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

192691

OptionProbability

No never

Yes by 2030

Yes by 2028

Yes by 2025

68

31

25

1

Will AI usage in 2030 be split in tiers where the best and most expensive models are used rarely compared to cheaper and lower-quality models?

Dec 23, 9:10 PMJan 2, 5:59 AM

91%chance

231906

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2000

824

Will someone do something IRL to profit on Manifold that gets news/courts coverage by 2035?

May 21, 11:25 AMMay 25, 3:59 PM

52.41%chance

181709

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1049

953

Will we see an open source LLM model better than Opus 4.5 before the end of 2026?

Jan 2, 6:14 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

79%chance

91081

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1940

516

Will Damien Hirst's "The Currency" be more valuable as an NFT than as a physical painting?

Oct 12, 6:59 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

30.66%chance

18866

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1051

957

Will AI systems and humans merge to create Cyborgs which are also the primary way that most humans live, this century?

Mar 24, 9:30 AMJan 1, 6:29 AM

59.37%chance

15591

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1123

765

Which countries will have a lower annual GDP per capita than Guyana in any year before 2050

Apr 16, 8:25 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

2327

OptionProbability

Lithuania

Portugal

Bahrain

Bahamas

Brunei

Slovenia

Andorra

Estonia

Kuwait

Spain

Saudi Arabia

Czech Republic

New Zealand

France

Malta

Italy

Cyprus

Taiwan

Finland

Canada

Germany

United Arab Emirates

Israel

United Kingdom

South Korea

Japan

76

66

66

54

50

50

44

44

42

41

41

41

34

34

34

34

34

34

24

24

24

24

24

24

24

24

In what year will Remote Labor Index automation rate reaches 80%?

Dec 12, 11:01 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

4248

OptionProbability

2027

2026

2028

2025

2029

Other

2030 or later

76

14

3

2

2

2

1

How much will the UAE workforce grow in 2026?

Jan 25, 8:53 PMJan 26, 5:59 AM

2207

OptionProbability

10 - 12.99%

13 - 15.99%

7 - 9.99%

16 - 20%

4 - 6.99%

Above 20%

Below 4%

22

22

17

13

10

9

6

Will the English Premier League still exist in 2150/51 w/ 100 million or more views* per season globally?

Sep 5, 11:12 PMSep 1, 10:59 PM

52.36%chance

15

OptionVotes

NO

YES

105

95

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