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Prediction markets for Digital
Full digitization (not necessarily emulation) of a human brain by 2035
Feb 14, 11:27 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM
34.05%chance
8111213
OptionVotes
1351
1329
9. Robotaxi services will win double-digit market share in ride-hailing in at least 5 major U.S. cities.
Dec 27, 8:23 AMJan 3, 10:59 PM
21.67%chance
302549
OptionVotes
1901
526
Will any computer virus powered by AI cause large damages to digital infrastructure by 2027?
Sep 13, 11:40 AMJan 1, 10:59 PM
26.64%chance
271321
OptionVotes
1111
946
Will there be laws protecting digital artificial intelligences from hate crimes in the USA by the end of 2060?
Apr 4, 8:40 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM
54.79%chance
13635
OptionVotes
1291
649
Will an artificial intelligence or digital person be named as a party in a criminal trial in the USA by EOY 2048?
Apr 5, 5:50 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM
49.13%chance
12604
OptionVotes
1012
973
Will a player win a Super Smash Bros Melee major using a digital / leverless controller before January 1st 2026?
Nov 25, 5:02 AMJan 1, 5:00 AM
21.04%chance
14568
OptionVotes
1232
918
Will brain organoid computing solve a problem which is infeasible using existing digital AI in the next 10 years?
Jan 10, 7:54 PMJan 17, 10:59 PM
29.93%chance
22556
OptionVotes
1013
928
Will I reach 5 digit (<rank 99999) in osu! standard before 2026
Nov 7, 6:11 PMJan 2, 5:59 AM
51%chance
7507
OptionVotes
1221
677
Will Spanberger (or whoever ends up being the Dem nominee) win Virginia's gubernatorial race by double digits?
Apr 3, 7:41 AMNov 5, 11:59 PM
64.05%chance
6345
OptionVotes
1335
749
Reviver, a digital license plate company, is out of business or failing in CA before EOY 2027
Sep 26, 7:31 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM
51.14%chance
12332
OptionVotes
1029
953
Will the United States have an official central bank digital currency by the end of 2038?
Apr 5, 6:14 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM
47%chance
17311
OptionVotes
1089
904
If I stick with Digital Ocean, will they attempt to censor any content I host with them before 2030?
Mar 6, 3:29 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM
54.27%chance
4211
OptionVotes
1089
918