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Prediction markets for DIP

Will the S&P 500 dip below 6000 in 2026?

Jan 20, 5:43 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

29.25%chance

4124874

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1106

669

[ACX 2026] Will Saudi Arabia and Israel agree to normalise diplomatic relations during 2026?

Jan 6, 11:28 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

15.34%chance

2910054

OptionVotes

YES

NO

9813

3728

Will Nikki Haley (American diplomat, politician) be charged with any felony crime before 2030?

Jan 30, 3:49 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

4.11%chance

261446

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1903

904

Will general purpose AI models beat average score of human players in Diplomacy by 2028?

Sep 20, 8:10 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

56.2%chance

121292

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1065

901

Will the Vatican State stop its diplomatic relationship with Taiwan and establish one with China before 2027?

Apr 17, 8:08 AMDec 31, 3:59 PM

25%chance

241276

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1056

705

During the Trump presidency, will median home prices in Washington DC dip below 500k?

Nov 9, 12:52 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

35.77%chance

12848

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1340

746

Will Honduras restablish diplomatic ties with the Republic of China (Taiwan) before 2027?

Nov 28, 1:22 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

66%chance

9222

OptionVotes

NO

YES

139

72

Will a deepfake cause a real diplomatic crisis between two countries by the end of 2027?

Jul 28, 8:59 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

52.48%chance

11220

OptionVotes

NO

YES

105

95

Will the United States win a diplomatic, cultural, or scientific victory IRL by EOY 2100?

Dec 23, 7:55 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

55.79%chance

11164

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1029

973

How many 'diplomatic allies' will ROC (Taiwan) lose in the period 2024-2027?

Jan 19, 3:23 AMJan 1, 3:59 PM

3157

OptionProbability

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

11

12

13

20

17

12

7

7

6

4

4

4

4

4

4

4

Will Iran and the United States establish formal diplomatic relations before 2030?

Jan 18, 9:40 AMDec 31, 5:59 AM

29.87%chance

5134

OptionVotes

YES

NO

347

286

Will Canada win a diplomatic, cultural, or scientific victory IRL by EOY 2100?

Dec 23, 7:55 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

54.91%chance

331

OptionVotes

NO

YES

101

79

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