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Prediction markets for DIP

Will the S&P 500 dip below 6000 in 2026?

Jan 20, 5:43 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

16.42%chance

6335860

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1213

953

[ACX 2026] Will Saudi Arabia and Israel agree to normalise diplomatic relations during 2026?

Jan 6, 11:28 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

16.76%chance

4012876

OptionVotes

YES

NO

9137

3857

Will the Vatican State stop its diplomatic relationship with Taiwan and establish one with China before 2027?

Apr 17, 8:08 AMDec 31, 3:59 PM

18%chance

251579

OptionVotes

YES

NO

992

978

Will Saudi Arabia and Israel announce the establishment of official diplomatic relations before the end of 2026?

Jan 16, 4:14 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

10.9%chance

251559

OptionVotes

YES

NO

286

35

Will Nikki Haley (American diplomat, politician) be charged with any felony crime before 2030?

Jan 30, 3:49 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

4.11%chance

261446

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1903

904

Will general purpose AI models beat average score of human players in Diplomacy by 2028?

Sep 20, 8:10 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

56.2%chance

121292

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1065

901

During the Trump presidency, will median home prices in Washington DC dip below 500k?

Nov 9, 12:52 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

35.58%chance

12851

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1346

743

Will the United States win a diplomatic, cultural, or scientific victory IRL by EOY 2100?

Dec 23, 7:55 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

55.79%chance

11164

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1029

973

Will Iran and the United States establish formal diplomatic relations before 2030?

Jan 18, 9:40 AMDec 31, 5:59 AM

29.87%chance

6136

OptionVotes

YES

NO

347

286

USA expels at least five Chinese diplomats within 7 days anytime til end 2031

Sep 11, 4:35 AMJan 2, 6:59 AM

51.6%chance

597

OptionVotes

NO

YES

130

81

Will Canada win a diplomatic, cultural, or scientific victory IRL by EOY 2100?

Dec 23, 7:55 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

54.91%chance

331

OptionVotes

NO

YES

101

79

Will Lake Powell dip below elevation 3,490 ft, which is “minimum power pool” prior to May 1 2027?

May 11, 5:00 PMApr 30, 11:59 PM

52.26%chance

214

OptionVotes

NO

YES

114

85

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