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Prediction markets for DIP

Will the S&P 500 dip below 6000 in 2026?

Jan 20, 5:43 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

60.96%chance

5228675

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1442

231

[ACX 2026] Will Saudi Arabia and Israel agree to normalise diplomatic relations during 2026?

Jan 6, 11:28 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

22.23%chance

3411032

OptionVotes

YES

NO

7208

4319

Will the Vatican State stop its diplomatic relationship with Taiwan and establish one with China before 2027?

Apr 17, 8:08 AMDec 31, 3:59 PM

19.72%chance

241476

OptionVotes

NO

YES

999

905

Will Nikki Haley (American diplomat, politician) be charged with any felony crime before 2030?

Jan 30, 3:49 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

4.11%chance

261446

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1903

904

Will general purpose AI models beat average score of human players in Diplomacy by 2028?

Sep 20, 8:10 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

56.2%chance

121292

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1065

901

Israel and Saudi Arabia establish diplomatic relations before Israel's elections?

Apr 9, 7:36 AMOct 26, 11:59 PM

16.76%chance

151155

OptionVotes

YES

NO

223

45

During the Trump presidency, will median home prices in Washington DC dip below 500k?

Nov 9, 12:52 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

35.77%chance

12848

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1340

746

Which of Taiwan/ROC's 'diplomatic allies' will 'flip' to the PRC before 2028?

Jan 31, 1:17 AMDec 31, 3:59 PM

7424

OptionProbability

Haiti

Tuvalu

Vatican City

Paraguay

Guatemala

Saint Lucia

Belize

Palau

Saint Vincent and the Grenadines

Eswatini

Marshall Islands

Saint Kitts and Nevis

80

79

63

51

50

50

34

34

25

20

10

10

Will the United States win a diplomatic, cultural, or scientific victory IRL by EOY 2100?

Dec 23, 7:55 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

55.79%chance

11164

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1029

973

Will Iran and the United States establish formal diplomatic relations before 2030?

Jan 18, 9:40 AMDec 31, 5:59 AM

29.87%chance

6136

OptionVotes

YES

NO

347

286

Will Taiwan/ROC lose a 'diplomatic ally' in 2026?

Jan 13, 3:49 AMDec 31, 3:48 AM

47.87%chance

557

OptionVotes

YES

NO

104

96

Will Canada win a diplomatic, cultural, or scientific victory IRL by EOY 2100?

Dec 23, 7:55 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

54.91%chance

331

OptionVotes

NO

YES

101

79

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