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Direct Assurance News
Prediction markets for Direct Assurance
Prediction markets for Direct Assurance
Did COVID-19 come from a laboratory?
Sep 1, 3:51 AM
Jan 1, 8:00 AM
26.43%
chance
2243
4827083
Option
Votes
YES
NO
19146
4533
Was Covid-19 an intentional bioweapon release?
Jan 30, 7:24 PM
Jan 1, 8:00 AM
3.27%
chance
30
2301
Option
Votes
YES
NO
1347
954
Will the US conduct a nuclear test before 2030?
Oct 30, 2:41 AM
Dec 31, 11:59 PM
30.45%
chance
18
492
Option
Votes
YES
NO
151
66
Will a frontier AI lab publish recurring governance metrics with capability benchmarks in one document by 2026-12-31?
Jul 16, 1:51 AM
Dec 31, 11:59 PM
35%
chance
0
0
Option
Votes
NO
YES
100
100
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