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Prediction markets for Direct Line

By 2028, will there be a visible break in trend line on US GDP, GDP per capita, unemployment, or productivity, which most economists attribute directly to the effects of AI?

Feb 20, 10:31 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

39.86%chance

615651684

OptionVotes

NO

YES

5682

4007

Will Trump 2.0 be the end of Democracy as we know it?

Oct 26, 3:24 PMFeb 1, 4:59 AM

22%chance

783394355

OptionVotes

YES

NO

7386

3139

Will the Federal Reserve hike interest rates in 2026?

Mar 5, 4:42 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

22%chance

235623

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1883

531

Will I be on the all-time profits leaderboard by 1st July 2026?

Jul 27, 4:54 PMJun 30, 11:59 PM

4%chance

74483

OptionVotes

YES

NO

4899

204

Will something happen in 2026?

Dec 14, 6:21 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

66.88%chance

383512

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1421

704

Will it become common to carry separate devices to enable AI listening to self outputs by mid 2026

Oct 1, 6:10 PMJul 1, 6:59 AM

8%chance

152721

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3391

295

Will an astronaut's life be lost during any stage of spaceflight before 2030?

Jan 31, 4:04 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

38.23%chance

281788

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1000

980

Will there be an attack on civilians in a NATO country committed primarily with a laser weapon with >19 casualties?

Oct 12, 3:57 PMJan 2, 6:59 AM

25.72%chance

11253

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1030

978

Will direct light rail/commuter rail line exist between Boston and Concord, NH OR Manchester, NH by EOY 2029?

Jan 27, 11:33 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

8.63%chance

5245

OptionVotes

YES

NO

288

33

Will the terminal UI be the default interface for Claude code on 1 Jan 2027?

Feb 7, 7:42 AMJan 1, 12:00 AM

70.61%chance

255

OptionVotes

NO

YES

155

65

What format will 'Jet Lag: The Game - Season Nineteen' take? (Read Description)

May 7, 3:07 AMJun 7, 3:07 AM

00

OptionProbability

Chase

Object Capture

Race

Territory Capture

Hide and Seek

Line Drawing

New

14

14

14

14

14

14

14

When will the Kakeya conjecture be proved or disproved?

Apr 7, 2:36 PMDec 31, 2:33 PM

00

OptionProbability

2026

2027

2028

2029

2030

2031

2032

2033

2034

2035

Other

9

9

9

9

9

9

9

9

9

9

9

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