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Prediction markets for Direct Line

By 2028, will there be a visible break in trend line on US GDP, GDP per capita, unemployment, or productivity, which most economists attribute directly to the effects of AI?

Feb 20, 10:31 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

39.87%chance

619656432

OptionVotes

NO

YES

5682

4006

Will Trump 2.0 be the end of Democracy as we know it?

Oct 26, 3:24 PMFeb 1, 4:59 AM

24.84%chance

783394684

OptionVotes

YES

NO

6715

3343

Will I be on the all-time profits leaderboard by 1st July 2026?

Jul 27, 4:54 PMJun 30, 11:59 PM

1%chance

79534

OptionVotes

YES

NO

9950

101

Will the Federal Reserve hike interest rates in 2026?

Mar 5, 4:42 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

58%chance

409386

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1175

851

Will something happen in 2026?

Dec 14, 6:21 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

61.75%chance

473957

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1271

787

Will it become common to carry separate devices to enable AI listening to self outputs by mid 2026

Oct 1, 6:10 PMJul 1, 6:59 AM

7.99%chance

162724

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3394

295

When will an AI-related event dominate the mainstream news cycle for at least three consecutive days?

Jan 21, 6:31 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

172442

OptionProbability

2027

2026

2030 and after. . . or we're all dead before the news comes out.

2028

2029

40

19

17

16

10

Will an astronaut's life be lost during any stage of spaceflight before 2030?

Jan 31, 4:04 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

38.23%chance

281788

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1000

980

Will North Korea attack South Korea's outlying islands, causing fatalities, before 2030?

Feb 5, 5:54 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

22.74%chance

161411

OptionVotes

YES

NO

338

111

Will there be an attack on civilians in a NATO country committed primarily with a laser weapon with >19 casualties?

Oct 12, 3:57 PMJan 2, 6:59 AM

25.72%chance

11253

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1030

978

Will direct light rail/commuter rail line exist between Boston and Concord, NH OR Manchester, NH by EOY 2029?

Jan 27, 11:33 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

8.63%chance

5245

OptionVotes

YES

NO

288

33

When will the Kakeya conjecture be proved or disproved?

Apr 7, 2:36 PMDec 31, 2:33 PM

00

OptionProbability

2026

2027

2028

2029

2030

2031

2032

2033

2034

2035

Other

9

9

9

9

9

9

9

9

9

9

9

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