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Prediction markets for Direct Line

By 2028, will there be a visible break in trend line on US GDP, GDP per capita, unemployment, or productivity, which most economists attribute directly to the effects of AI?

Feb 20, 10:31 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

27.86%chance

653719860

OptionVotes

YES

NO

5791

4783

Will Trump 2.0 be the end of Democracy as we know it?

Oct 26, 3:24 PMFeb 1, 4:59 AM

8.77%chance

793414172

OptionVotes

YES

NO

14104

2043

When will AI forecasting crush human superforecasters?

Jul 7, 4:56 AMJul 1, 7:00 AM

376996

OptionProbability

After June 2028

July 2027 to June 2028

Before July 2027

48

36

16

Will Fable remain at the top of the coding ranking?

Jun 30, 9:15 AMDec 31, 10:05 AM

32.08%chance

193014

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1330

154

When will an AI-related event dominate the mainstream news cycle for at least three consecutive days?

Jan 21, 6:31 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

182632

OptionProbability

2027

2030 and after. . . or we're all dead before the news comes out.

2028

2026

2029

53

17

16

12

10

Will an astronaut's life be lost during any stage of spaceflight before 2030?

Jan 31, 4:04 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

38.23%chance

281788

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1000

980

When will the Kakeya conjecture be proved or disproved?

Apr 7, 2:36 PMDec 31, 2:33 PM

3303

OptionProbability

2026

2027

2028

2029

2030

2031

2032

2033

2034

2035

Other

87

4

2

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

Will there be an attack on civilians in a NATO country committed primarily with a laser weapon with >19 casualties?

Oct 12, 3:57 PMJan 2, 6:59 AM

25.72%chance

11253

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1030

978

Will direct light rail/commuter rail line exist between Boston and Concord, NH OR Manchester, NH by EOY 2029?

Jan 27, 11:33 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

8.63%chance

5245

OptionVotes

YES

NO

288

33

Trump administration does another regime change after removing Venezuela's Maduro?

Jan 5, 10:38 PMJan 21, 7:59 AM

81.68%chance

9241

OptionVotes

NO

YES

211

47

Does being smart and innovative require that AIs can never truly, deeply conform to social rules? [In development still]

Dec 22, 8:25 AMJan 2, 6:59 AM

65.02%chance

9125

OptionVotes

NO

YES

194

119

Can anyone move my AGI-by-2030 estimate by 15 points? [Convince the Machine #21]

Oct 24, 10:18 AMNov 23, 11:59 PM

12.91%chance

4109

OptionVotes

YES

NO

152

90

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