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Prediction markets for Direct Line

By 2028, will there be a visible break in trend line on US GDP, GDP per capita, unemployment, or productivity, which most economists attribute directly to the effects of AI?

Feb 20, 10:31 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

31.05%chance

480364042

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2865

2074

Will Trump 2.0 be the end of Democracy as we know it?

Oct 26, 3:24 PMFeb 1, 4:59 AM

29.74%chance

680288947

OptionVotes

YES

NO

5783

3688

8. OpenAI, Anthropic and other frontier labs will begin ‘moving up the stack,’ [...] building applications

Dec 27, 8:22 AMJan 3, 10:59 PM

94.68%chance

173443

OptionVotes

NO

YES

4220

237

Will an astronaut's life be lost during any stage of spaceflight before 2030?

Jan 31, 4:04 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

33.55%chance

261714

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1112

926

Will it become common to carry separate devices to enable AI listening to self outputs by mid 2026

Oct 1, 6:10 PMJul 1, 6:59 AM

20%chance

121330

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2000

500

Will the "Sky Shield" proposal and European fighter jets over Ukraine become reality in 2025?

Mar 6, 9:23 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

13.1%chance

12969

OptionVotes

YES

NO

509

226

Where will my single hot friend find her man?

Nov 9, 7:10 PMDec 31, 6:43 PM

14574

OptionProbability

Other

At an EA (Effective Altruism) conference

LessWrong (LW) Meetup

Bay Area Taco Tuesday

Manifold Markets Manifest

Secular Solstice

66

7

7

7

7

6

Will I be on the all-time profits leaderboard by 1st July 2026?

Jul 27, 4:54 PMJun 30, 11:59 PM

53%chance

6526

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1062

942

Will one of the teams that left the race in 2025 start at Etoile de Besseges in 2026?

Feb 10, 5:12 PMFeb 18, 5:59 AM

66.59%chance

5412

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1412

708

Will there be an attack on civilians in a NATO country committed primarily with a laser weapon with >19 casualties?

Oct 12, 3:57 PMJan 2, 6:59 AM

25.72%chance

11253

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1030

978

Will direct light rail/commuter rail line exist between Boston and Concord, NH OR Manchester, NH by EOY 2029?

Jan 27, 11:33 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

8.63%chance

5245

OptionVotes

YES

NO

288

33

[Metaculus] If China invades Taiwan before 2035, will the United Kingdom respond with military forces?

Oct 7, 1:16 PMJan 3, 9:00 PM

13.27%chance

5155

OptionVotes

YES

NO

265

58

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