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Prediction markets for Directive Games

By the end of 2026, will we have transparency into any useful internal pattern within a Large Language Model whose semantics would have been unfamiliar to AI and cognitive science in 2006?

Sep 30, 5:54 PMFeb 1, 7:59 AM

9.7%chance

835518679

OptionVotes

YES

NO

58873

10436

Will the Supreme Court hear a case disputing the 2028 Presidential Election, and how will they rule?

Nov 23, 7:14 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

182800

OptionProbability

No, SCOTUS will rule on no such case

Yes, and the Democratic side will win

Yes, and the Republican side will win

73

14

13

Will Djokovic announce his retirement in 2026?

Jan 1, 2:48 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

10.56%chance

112664

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2765

218

Terraria 2 announced before 2027?

Sep 5, 10:44 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

10.68%chance

51930

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2892

346

What fraction of identical twins cooperate in the prisoner's dilemma?

Oct 21, 1:47 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

79.98%chance

161313

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1208

921

AI wins FTL using screen input and mouse/keyboard before 2027

Apr 11, 11:10 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

24.52%chance

6779

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1755

570

Will Denis Villeneuve direct an adaptation of The Player of Games before 2035?

Apr 15, 7:20 PMMar 5, 10:59 PM

8.11%chance

7612

OptionVotes

YES

NO

473

44

Will xAI release a game made entirely with AI that is better made than the best made Roblox game in the next 5 yrs?

Feb 21, 11:39 AMFeb 21, 11:59 PM

31%chance

10592

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1492

670

will world war 3 start before GTA Vi?

Mar 1, 7:12 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

11.3%chance

18491

OptionVotes

YES

NO

280

36

Will WW3 happen before GTA7?

Dec 1, 2:32 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

30.18%chance

17457

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1101

562

Will Gmail introduce a streaming mode like what's used by discord by EOY 2027?

Apr 22, 8:01 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

12.64%chance

4171

OptionVotes

YES

NO

263

38

Size of the smallest number of positions proving a win for black in Queen-odds chess

Feb 3, 7:53 PMJan 1, 5:59 AM

2125

OptionProbability

<=10^50

<=10^30

<=10^10

90

66

15

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