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Prediction markets for Directive Games

By the end of 2026, will we have transparency into any useful internal pattern within a Large Language Model whose semantics would have been unfamiliar to AI and cognitive science in 2006?

Sep 30, 5:54 PMFeb 1, 7:59 AM

9.91%chance

811504802

OptionVotes

YES

NO

58014

10529

When will the next regular Nintendo Direct take place?

Sep 12, 2:23 PMOct 1, 2:20 PM

92220

OptionProbability

Before October 2026

Before August 2026

Before September 2026

Before July 2026

Before June 2026

Before May 2026

Before April 2026

Before March 2026

Before November 2025

Before December 2025

Before January 2026

Before February 2026

98

94

94

93

58

44

31

9

0

0

0

0

Same city wins 2+ major sports championships (2025-2026)?

Oct 1, 10:46 AMJun 30, 10:35 AM

10.57%chance

71908

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2908

344

Will the Supreme Court hear a case disputing the 2028 Presidential Election, and how will they rule?

Nov 23, 7:14 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

141583

OptionProbability

No, SCOTUS will rule on no such case

Yes, and the Republican side will win

Yes, and the Democratic side will win

66

18

16

Terraria 2 announced before 2027?

Sep 5, 10:44 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

14.11%chance

41505

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2467

405

Will at least one US World Cup game be moved because of Trump politics?

Jun 7, 5:15 AMJul 20, 5:03 AM

30.08%chance

181388

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1525

656

What fraction of identical twins cooperate in the prisoner's dilemma?

Oct 21, 1:47 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

79.98%chance

161313

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1208

921

Will Denis Villeneuve direct an adaptation of The Player of Games before 2035?

Apr 15, 7:20 PMMar 5, 10:59 PM

8.11%chance

7612

OptionVotes

YES

NO

473

44

Will xAI release a game made entirely with AI that is better made than the best made Roblox game in the next 5 yrs?

Feb 21, 11:39 AMFeb 21, 11:59 PM

32.47%chance

8442

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1442

693

Will WW3 happen before GTA7?

Dec 1, 2:32 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

32.28%chance

13366

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1120

519

Will Djokovic announce his retirement in 2026?

Jan 1, 2:48 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

56.67%chance

6313

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1056

921

Is Jose Luis Ricon FUNNIER than JOSCHA BACH, jose luis ricon, razib khan, @repligate/janus , alexey guzey, qiaochu yuan?

May 2, 4:30 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

40.19%chance

122

OptionVotes

YES

NO

122

82

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