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Prediction markets for Directive Games

By the end of 2026, will we have transparency into any useful internal pattern within a Large Language Model whose semantics would have been unfamiliar to AI and cognitive science in 2006?

Sep 30, 5:54 PMFeb 1, 7:59 AM

29.63%chance

793419120

OptionVotes

YES

NO

25141

17457

Will Remco Evenepoel be on the Soudal Quick-Step roster in 2026?

Feb 6, 6:35 PMFeb 2, 4:59 AM

3.82%chance

95541

OptionVotes

YES

NO

5016

199

Will I win the FOLDED grand prize?

Jul 18, 10:19 AMDec 31, 11:10 AM

14.6%chance

135504

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2419

413

Will there be a Nintendo Direct in August?

Jul 31, 1:39 PMAug 31, 11:59 PM

60.71%chance

143896

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1243

805

Will GPT-5 be at least a tiny bit strategic at the "Numbers Game"?

May 9, 9:05 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

84.71%chance

351923

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2140

617

Will Anthropic host a Claude Minecraft Twitch stream before 2026?

Feb 26, 12:19 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

25%chance

151883

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1732

577

What fraction of identical twins cooperate in the prisoner's dilemma?

Oct 21, 1:47 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

79.98%chance

161313

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1208

921

Will at least one US World Cup game be moved because of Trump politics?

Jun 7, 5:15 AMJul 20, 5:03 AM

27.59%chance

151217

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1620

617

Will Denis Villeneuve direct an adaptation of The Player of Games before 2035?

Apr 15, 7:20 PMMar 5, 10:59 PM

17.52%chance

6400

OptionVotes

YES

NO

301

68

Which other categories will the Game of the Year winner win at The Game Awards 2025?

Dec 16, 11:10 PMDec 15, 1:29 PM

10364

OptionProbability

Best Game Direction

Best Role Playing Game

Best Score and Music

Best Audio Design

Best Action/Adventure Game

Players' Voice

Best Narrative

Best Art Direction

Best Independent Game

Best Community Support

Best Sim / Strategy Game

Best Multiplayer Game

Best Performance

Best Action Game

Best Debut Independent Game

Best Ongoing Game

Best VR/AR Game

Best Fighting Game

Best Family Game

Best Sports / Racing Game

Games for Impact

Best Mobile Game

88

85

72

26

26

25

20

20

20

20

20

20

20

18

14

14

14

14

14

14

14

3

Will xAI release a game made entirely with AI that is better made than the best made Roblox game in the next 5 yrs?

Feb 21, 11:39 AMFeb 21, 11:59 PM

35.7%chance

7342

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1342

745

Which other categories will the Game of the Year winner be nominated for at The Game Awards 2025?

Dec 16, 11:07 PMDec 15, 1:29 PM

3179

OptionProbability

Best Game Direction

Best Role Playing Game

Players' Voice

Best Score and Music

Best Art Direction

Best Narrative

Best Audio Design

Best Action Game

Best Action/Adventure Game

Best Multiplayer Game

Best Performance

Best Community Support

Best Family Game

Best Sim / Strategy Game

Best Independent Game

Best Ongoing Game

Best Mobile Game

Best VR/AR Game

Best Fighting Game

Best Sports / Racing Game

Games for Impact

Best Debut Independent Game

92

92

86

74

69

50

50

50

50

50

50

31

31

31

20

20

20

20

20

20

20

12

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