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Prediction markets for Directive Games

By the end of 2026, will we have transparency into any useful internal pattern within a Large Language Model whose semantics would have been unfamiliar to AI and cognitive science in 2006?

Sep 30, 5:54 PMFeb 1, 7:59 AM

9.66%chance

834517250

OptionVotes

YES

NO

59065

10415

Same city wins 2+ major sports championships (2025-2026)?

Oct 1, 10:46 AMJun 30, 10:35 AM

1%chance

1618126

OptionVotes

YES

NO

9950

101

Will the Supreme Court hear a case disputing the 2028 Presidential Election, and how will they rule?

Nov 23, 7:14 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

182800

OptionProbability

No, SCOTUS will rule on no such case

Yes, and the Democratic side will win

Yes, and the Republican side will win

73

14

13

Will at least one US World Cup game be moved because of Trump politics?

Jun 7, 5:15 AMJul 20, 5:03 AM

12.53%chance

282758

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2642

378

Terraria 2 announced before 2027?

Sep 5, 10:44 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

11.93%chance

51755

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2717

368

What fraction of identical twins cooperate in the prisoner's dilemma?

Oct 21, 1:47 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

79.98%chance

161313

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1208

921

Will Djokovic announce his retirement in 2026?

Jan 1, 2:48 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

50.29%chance

11794

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1171

790

AI wins FTL using screen input and mouse/keyboard before 2027

Apr 11, 11:10 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

24.52%chance

6779

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1755

570

Will Denis Villeneuve direct an adaptation of The Player of Games before 2035?

Apr 15, 7:20 PMMar 5, 10:59 PM

8.11%chance

7612

OptionVotes

YES

NO

473

44

Will WW3 happen before GTA7?

Dec 1, 2:32 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

30.18%chance

17457

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1101

562

Will xAI release a game made entirely with AI that is better made than the best made Roblox game in the next 5 yrs?

Feb 21, 11:39 AMFeb 21, 11:59 PM

32.47%chance

8442

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1442

693

Will there be a Python implementation of the Open Game Engine (a Compositional Game Theory Model Checker) before 2028?

Apr 13, 12:53 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

50%chance

00

OptionVotes

NO

YES

100

100

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