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Prediction markets for Directive Games

By the end of 2026, will we have transparency into any useful internal pattern within a Large Language Model whose semantics would have been unfamiliar to AI and cognitive science in 2006?

Sep 30, 5:54 PMFeb 1, 7:59 AM

10.06%chance

826508702

OptionVotes

YES

NO

57414

10596

Same city wins 2+ major sports championships (2025-2026)?

Oct 1, 10:46 AMJun 30, 10:35 AM

10.47%chance

910406

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2924

342

Will the Supreme Court hear a case disputing the 2028 Presidential Election, and how will they rule?

Nov 23, 7:14 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

172795

OptionProbability

No, SCOTUS will rule on no such case

Yes, and the Democratic side will win

Yes, and the Republican side will win

74

14

13

Terraria 2 announced before 2027?

Sep 5, 10:44 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

14.11%chance

41505

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2467

405

Will at least one US World Cup game be moved because of Trump politics?

Jun 7, 5:15 AMJul 20, 5:03 AM

29.04%chance

211443

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1563

640

What fraction of identical twins cooperate in the prisoner's dilemma?

Oct 21, 1:47 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

79.98%chance

161313

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1208

921

What words will the title of the sequel for The Super Mario Galaxy Movie include?

Feb 26, 5:00 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

101074

OptionProbability

Universe

World

Realm

Kingdom

Voyage

Cosmic

Galactic

Odyssey

Adventure

Dimension

Stellar

Rescue

Revenge

Smash

Infinity

Race

Multiverse

Brawl

20

20

20

20

20

20

20

17

15

15

15

15

15

15

11

11

9

9

Will Denis Villeneuve direct an adaptation of The Player of Games before 2035?

Apr 15, 7:20 PMMar 5, 10:59 PM

8.11%chance

7612

OptionVotes

YES

NO

473

44

Will Djokovic announce his retirement in 2026?

Jan 1, 2:48 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

58.76%chance

9564

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1021

970

Metacritic score of The Duskbloods two weeks after release?

Apr 3, 3:19 AMOct 31, 3:16 AM

4484

OptionProbability

85-89

80-84

90-94

75-79

95 or above

Below 75

25

24

18

16

9

9

Will WW3 happen before GTA7?

Dec 1, 2:32 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

30.23%chance

16456

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1101

561

Will xAI release a game made entirely with AI that is better made than the best made Roblox game in the next 5 yrs?

Feb 21, 11:39 AMFeb 21, 11:59 PM

32.47%chance

8442

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1442

693

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