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Prediction markets for Directive Games

By the end of 2026, will we have transparency into any useful internal pattern within a Large Language Model whose semantics would have been unfamiliar to AI and cognitive science in 2006?

Sep 30, 5:54 PMFeb 1, 7:59 AM

5.21%chance

858583544

OptionVotes

YES

NO

89425

8110

Will Djokovic announce his retirement in 2026?

Jan 1, 2:48 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

2.16%chance

115524

OptionVotes

YES

NO

5404

80

Will Half‑Life 3 be officially announced in 2026?

Dec 18, 3:23 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

11.28%chance

583889

OptionVotes

YES

NO

281

36

Will the Supreme Court hear a case disputing the 2028 Presidential Election, and how will they rule?

Nov 23, 7:14 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

182800

OptionProbability

No, SCOTUS will rule on no such case

Yes, and the Democratic side will win

Yes, and the Republican side will win

73

14

13

Will the GTA VI leaker be publicly identified before GTA VI releases?

Aug 22, 6:26 AMNov 19, 11:59 PM

13.49%chance

252657

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2532

395

Terraria 2 announced before 2027?

Sep 5, 10:44 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

9.47%chance

52130

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3092

323

What fraction of identical twins cooperate in the prisoner's dilemma?

Oct 21, 1:47 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

79.98%chance

161313

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1208

921

Will WW3 happen before GTA7?

Dec 1, 2:32 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

20.26%chance

231108

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1000

868

AI wins FTL using screen input and mouse/keyboard before 2027

Apr 11, 11:10 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

23.49%chance

7829

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1805

554

Will Denis Villeneuve direct an adaptation of The Player of Games before 2035?

Apr 15, 7:20 PMMar 5, 10:59 PM

8.11%chance

7612

OptionVotes

YES

NO

473

44

Will xAI release a game made entirely with AI that is better made than the best made Roblox game in the next 5 yrs?

Feb 21, 11:39 AMFeb 21, 11:59 PM

31%chance

10592

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1492

670

Will WW3 happen before GTA8?

Dec 7, 2:00 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

42%chance

684

OptionVotes

YES

NO

118

85

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